Political Posts

[villainx]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

You think I that I add nothing with my posts, that's fine, so why would I be posting?  I post an idea that goes up 150%, I get nothing.

 

To be honest, I don't use this site to remember who posted what or shared this or that.  For the most part, I don't tie a particular user/poster to any investing idea or political view unless he or she kinda dominates a particular thread (like Viking on Fairfax, Gregmal on Joe, and others).  I usually skip these political threads because I don't like participating in politics but I do take a look every now and then in case there's something investing related.  I am almost always surprised to find this or that person is left or right leaning and be similarly surprised when I visit the discussion thread after a period of time, because I don't particularly identify anyone with any particular viewpoint.  Not that I dismiss anything, but I get what I can get and just appreciate folks sharing.

 

Anyway, this is long winded way of saying I know I ran across stuff you shared before, and I do appreciate your thoughts and ideas.  

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

So when the US dropped nukes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that was genocide?  Firebombing of Tokyo?  If so, every war waged since time immemorial involved genocide.  All I said what that's how war has always been fought, and if the West wants to win, it has to fight the way wars always been fought.  

You think I that I add nothing with my posts, that's fine, so why would I be posting?  I post an idea that goes up 150%, I get nothing.  I post historically accurate facts, I get banned.  So why post?  I lived in the USSR, I know the game.  

@Xerxes, @Gregmal, @Cod Liver Oil

 

 

@Parsad 

 

The specific comment about Afghans was based on how wars are won. It might be distasteful (war is distasteful), but it was certainly not advocating genocide. That was my view from what I recall. 

 

That said, I find all of these political threads emotionally draining. And admitingly, I did my fair bit of fuelling the flame. 

[LC]

@mcliu Oh I'm not disagreeing with you. Re: high value manufacturing - at the very least we could debate that, figure the best ways to promote those industries, even with tariffs (particularly against IP-stealing countries).

 

But that's not what is happening - nor is it what MAGA voted for. 

Ultimately I think they just want to dish out pain, and they don't care if suffer themselves.

 

I mean, they're practically frothing at the mouth like rabid wolves with imposing tariffs on allies, ICE raids, the about-face re: Ukraine war, "ending" DEI, firing tens of thousands of gov't workers, gutting national institutions...

Edited April 3, 2025 by LC

[dwy000]

18 minutes ago, mcliu said:

You probably don’t want to manufacture cheap shoes or toys etc but what is the case against domestic manufacturing of technical products like solar panels or batteries or ships or semiconductors or pharmaceuticals, etc? So what if it cost a bit more than outsourcing it? Those retained jobs will also employ tons of highly skilled workers.
 

Also, manufacturing itself is a difficult task, once you lose the work force and institutional knowledge, it’s difficult to get it back. There’s also the flywheel aspect, the more manufacturing you do, the better you get at it, more manufacturing talent is created etc..

Nothing wrong with it and agree we should be focused on these types of high tech industries. But we should do it not thru protectionist measures that offset the need for efficiency and competiteness but by making our industry globally competitive.  Which is what the CHIPS act was driving for example. 

[Charlie]

Congratulations Mr. President!

The trade war has begun.

I sold some equities yesterday.

 

Now I understand it better:

These rich guys in Cambodia made America poor!!! 

Edited April 3, 2025 by Charlie

[nwoodman]

The  methodology for “the chart” is now being widely reported

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/trump-s-reciprocal-tariff-formula-is-all-about-trade-deficits

 

The framing in the table below was helpful for me.  The discussion above even more so.  
 

 

 

Slow burn or crisis? Personally I think while futures are voting for crisis, slow burn is the likely outcome.  While stupid policy, it is never as bad as all the hand wringing makes out.  It’s the end of US exceptionalism but that was a  bit overdone as a thesis. 
 

[Luke]

51 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

The  methodology for “the chart” is now being widely reported

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/trump-s-reciprocal-tariff-formula-is-all-about-trade-deficits

 

The framing in the table below was helpful for me.  The discussion above even more so.  
 

 

 

 

Slow burn or crisis? Personally I think while futures are voting for crisis, slow burn is the likely outcome.  While stupid policy, it is never as bad as all the hand wringing makes out.  It’s the end of US exceptionalism but that was a  bit overdone as a thesis. 
 

Thanks for for sharing. Highly insightful and agree with assessment.

[Gregmal]

4 hours ago, LC said:

 

What happens when a few people collude to ban people they disagree with?

Yup.. but hey, a bunch of useless, largely anonymous, complaining syrup suckers hit the report button cuz their feelings got ruffled…

[Mephistopheles]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

The ghosts of the old (maybe future) Republican party....calling it like it is.....tax hikes....and deeply regressive ones at that.

 

In all fairness to Trump, have to take what Mike Pence says with a grain of salt given Trump tried to have him killed. He’s clearly biased

[Mephistopheles]

9 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

And just think - you can't do anything about it except bitch and moan.

 

It's so much fun watching the opposition party that has absolutely no idea what to do,

while they get steamrolled.

No bitching or moaning here, loving the volatility. Glad that you agree with me though 

[Sweet]

 

[nwoodman]

We were discussing this very point in the link below over dinner.  It is a kick in the guts for some on the list that just seems so disproportionate due to the methodology. The potential for unintended consequences just seems disproportionate to any gains. 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/trump-tariffs-are-disaster-for-the-world-s-poorest-countries

 

Summary points:

 

Poorest countries are hit hardest: Cambodia (49%), Laos (48%), Lesotho (50%), and Bangladesh (37%) — despite many having previously enjoyed duty-free access under LDC or AGOA programs.

 

Soft power is sacrificed: The U.S. is pulling aid and slapping tariffs — opening the door for China to fill the void in regions like Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Punishment without cause: Many of these countries export labor-intensive goods (e.g., garments) and don’t have the capacity to buy much from the U.S. — yet they are treated like bad actors due to a one-size-fits-all formula.

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Mephistopheles said:

In all fairness to Trump, have to take what Mike Pence says with a grain of salt given Trump tried to have him killed. He’s clearly biased

 

Come on, its these types of exaggerations that radicalise others to try and assassinate Trump, which in turn has radicalised a bunch of Trump supporters.  It's a radicalisation spiral.  Tell the truth, or acknowledge what is unknown. 

[nwoodman]

An antipodean perspective, in recognition of the arts.

[Charlie]

There are a lot of news that the EU does not charge 39% to the U.S.

The number seems much too high.

Anybody know the realistic math behind it?

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, Red Lion said:

You’ve been one of the most useful (and profitable) posters that I follow here, so thank you. 

I very much agree.

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I didn't expect these to work out this fast. I've shorted tesla in the past and always lost money. If markets open as low as they are now tomorrow, it will be the first time I made money on tesla short. 

TSLA is in its own galaxy in how it trades, because bulls and bears don’t agree on the metrics or even narratives that it should trade on.

[gfp]

22 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There are a lot of news that the EU does not charge 39% to the U.S.

The number seems much too high.

Anybody know the realistic math behind it?

 

They didn't stick with any sort of true 'reciprocal' tariff calculations.  The 39% would include anything they felt like including - particularly value added taxes and other 'non tariff barriers'.  When all is said and done, they based the tariff rates in that chart on the US trade deficit with the other party, not any sort of reciprocal tariff as "promised."

 

Here is the calculation ->

 

https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

 

[Paarslaars]

28 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There are a lot of news that the EU does not charge 39% to the U.S.

The number seems much too high.

Anybody know the realistic math behind it?

Of course we don't.. the 39% is the trade deficit. Basically the US imports 39% more from EU than the EU from the US.

[nwoodman]

30 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There are a lot of news that the EU does not charge 39% to the U.S.

The number seems much too high.

Anybody know the realistic math behind it?

Scroll up, but in a nutshell it is a deficit proxy.

[Paarslaars]

I don't understand the logic behind it. Now if you were to denominate (correct word?) this with GDP or something, maybe it could make sense... Now smaller economies are getting crushed.  

 

The US has spend decades taking advantage of cheap labor in these countries... Why is that labor no longer wanted?

Edited April 3, 2025 by Paarslaars

[changegonnacome]

49 minutes ago, Charlie said:

There are a lot of news that the EU does not charge 39% to the U.S.

The number seems much too high.

Anybody know the realistic math behind it?

[John Hjorth]

USTR - Office of the United States Trade Representative [ustr.gov][March 31^st 2025] : USTR Releases 2025 National Trade Estimate Report.

 

Link to Report.

[Charlie]

Ironically the "Independence Day" or whatever Trump called it, could be the inflection point 

for bursting the MAGA bubble. We will see!

[Spooky]

It's funny, everyone saying the US needs manufacturing back for national security as a justification or the US needs high value manufacturing but hates on the Biden administration. Their approach was so much better than this, recognizing which areas are important (semi-conductors), passing the CHIPS act to spur investment in the US in this industry, and then placing targeted export controls on the most cutting edge technology to China while still allowing most competition between the two nations.

 

These lazy broad based tariffs are not going to achieve the ends the US is seeking. There is a deficit of strategic thinking. It will just reduce US trade and make US companies less competitive in the long run.