Political Posts

[Gregmal]

9 minutes ago, flesh said:

Is there a link to the Buffett/fortune article? I’d like to read it. 
 

Also, I see everyone is quite confident about their opinions. I’d love to see some predictions.. what will happen with trade gdp tariff rates between countries.. recessions etc and this way we can look back in in a few years and see what happened. 

That was an awesome exercise during Covid and again in 2022. Most people woulda been better off doing the opposite of what they were so certain of. The consolation prize was that they did get a technical recession with Covid, but not much to show for it!

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Amusingly, this was written when the trade deficit was a fraction of what it is today. Buffett's solution would have almost instantaneously eliminated the deficit which would have been far more disruptive and hit all our trading partners equally (unlike now where we hit the biggest violators like China the hardest).

 

In Buffett's case, the cost would be borne by the offending party...exactly like carbon credits.  In the present case, the cost is borne by the consumer.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

My point is that Europe or Japan or Korea or India isn't going to run to China as an alternative to the USA. For obvious geopolitical reasons.

 

Yes, they probably won't run solely to China, but new alliances are going to be created.  And the realignment might not be as pleasant as the past!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

So much for going after China!  Exactly what I expected.  Tariffs are simply his taking a baseball bat to kneecaps to get what he wants!  There's no genius here...just a mob boss.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-china-could-tariff-205029241.html

[LC]

I imagine CCP would ignore this Trump proposal, and signal to the rest of the world how weakly it views US under Trump. That would do more to benefit China vs. short-term tariff relief.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, thepupil said:

 

I'm a little confused by the 60% number you cite. I do not have a source for it anywhere. there is the trump chart from last night with a dubiously calculated 67% number, which is the subject of ridicule. Is this what you are referring to?

 

From my understanding, the  Trump admin and China began a trade war/raising of tariffs against each other in Trump's first term. Biden / China kept those stable, then Trump just did this. 

 

A chart of the tariff rates between the two countries is below.

 

Prior to Trump initiating the trade war it appears China had a tariff on US exports b/w 5-10% on fewer than 2% of US exports. The tarriffs on US exports were in line with those charged by China relative to the rest of the world and on an immaterial portion of trade.

 

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-chart

 

my assumption that China became manufacturer to the world because of, initially, cheap labor, and thereafter, scale, innovation, and a healthy dose of systematic IP "exchange" facilitated by compliant multinationals who lusted for access to the chinese market. I don't belief tariffs played a material role. 

 

China pegged its currency at an artificially low rate for decades to boost manufacturing.  They kept the dollars from these currency controls and bought assets with them.

 

China’s economic policies are more sinister than tariffs.  They had blanket bans on certain products and services from even being placed on their market, some of which remains today - famously Google.  Many companies that do business in China have to partner with Chinese firms.

 

China massively sponsor their industry, deliberately overproducing and swamping global markets with cheap goods to undercut competitors.  Basically what monopolies used to do before they were outlawed.  The EU have imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel.  More recently the EU have imposed duties on their electric cars citing that Chinese companies “benefits from unfair subsidization which is causing threat of economic injury to EU producers”.

 

China has acted as a vampire on free market economies.  It protects it own markets and industries whilst it can trade mostly freely with the rest of the world.  Trade with it should have been stopped long ago.  Let’s get serious.

 

Edited April 3, 2025 by Sweet

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Most important is asian and european markets but the US seems to totally lose their respect in africa and this continent (if you do the work and look at the numbers) will have one of the youngest and eager populations on the globe and i think its not to be underestimated over the long term.

Are you even reading my comments? Are you talking with someone else? Sry cubsfan but you just write a few oneliner marketing slogans without any fundamentals for why trumps tariff would lead to american companies becoming so much more competitive.

 

I am reading your comments, as well as your frequent insults.

 

Your logic is as follows - Country A can implement tariffs, but Country B can not implement tariffs.

All because you say so. That is the gist of it, and it's ridiculous.

 

 

[dwy000]

20 minutes ago, Parsad said:

So much for going after China!  Exactly what I expected.  Tariffs are simply his taking a baseball bat to kneecaps to get what he wants!  There's no genius here...just a mob boss.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-china-could-tariff-205029241.html

This exactly underscores how there is no underlying strategy for tariffs and that US companies would be stupid to invest in bringing manufacturing onshore. If they are subject to whims and daily changes, there's zero ability to plan or invest. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Now Trump wants to repeat that apparently while having less scale, less favor globally, WAY less eager workers that wouldnt put up with 30% of what asian workers have to put up with...just look at the TSMC fabs where US workers try to lawsuit themselves in because they are not hired... @cubsfan lives in a parallel world where just praising trump and "it will be worth it and great trust me bro" is the agenda but not reality.

 

Dude - you live in your academic textbook, where you think you get to adjudicate who can levy tariffs on who. You have no idea how silly you sound.

 

[LC]

https://www.latintimes.com/trump-accused-using-chatgpt-create-tariff-plan-after-ai-leads-users-same-formula-so-ai-579899

 

Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After AI Leads Users to Same Formula

[Parsad]

15 minutes ago, LC said:

https://www.latintimes.com/trump-accused-using-chatgpt-create-tariff-plan-after-ai-leads-users-same-formula-so-ai-579899

 

Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After AI Leads Users to Same Formula

 

Pppphhhhhtttt!   

 

Not Trump.  He wouldn't have a clue what to do with ChatGPT.  But certainly one of the geniuses on his team might have!

 

Cheers!

[Sweet]

Regarding Chinese trade over time.  Listen to Pelosi in 1996 in this video (ignore the text):

 

 

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, mcliu said:

I don't think you have a trade deficit with the grocery store because you're paying for your groceries.

 

The better analogy would be if you were part owner of the grocery store and as such, you paid your groceries in IOUs or shareholder advances. However, these IOUs are exchangeable for fractions of your ownership. Overtime your ownership of the store would be diluted. 

That's not how trade deficit works. If I have cash and go and buy things from the store, I have a trade deficit with the store. The problem you are describing, while related isn't the same. 

[Buckeye]

I’m interested to know if any of the tariff experts on this thread have any actual experience with tariffs? Is anyone here manufacturing anything in the US? If so, I’d love to hear your thoughts. 

 

I currently own a small manufacturing company that makes laboratory equipment in the good ol USA. Everything is machined in Pennsylvania by a second generation machine shop…can’t get more MAGA than that!

 

Today I was talking to my machinist about an upcoming order and he seemed a little distraught.  Apparently the 4” OD 316 Stainless steel tube that we’ve buying for the past 3 years or so for about $330 a foot now costs $550 a foot.  Huh, that’s interesting. An increase of 66%.  So a 20’ section that used to cost us $6.5k  now runs about $11k. The other kicker is that what usually was fairly easy sourced on the east coast is now only available in Texas? I’m not looking forward to the cost to ship a 20’ section of tube from TX to PA. Ugh. I guess I can keep my prices the same and eat the additional cost or I can raise my prices? 
 

I’m not here to complain, only to point out that things are getting a little weird out there for some manufacturers.  I can only imagine what all of the factories and other industries that rely on this steel may be feeling right now. 

 

People who definitively claim that tariffs don’t cause inflation are either are misinformed or dishonest. Maybe tariffs don’t directly cause inflation, but people’s reaction to tariffs, or people’s anticipation of tariffs may lead to some inflation. 
 

if this is what’s got to happen to “make us great again” I’m all for sacrificing  for the greater good.  But I’d feel better about the process if it seemed like there was some more thought put into the implementation.
 

 

[lnofeisone]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Not at all. It's a reset for the USA, plain and simple. America first. 

 

If the rest of the world wants to decend into socialism, so be it.

 

We tried it with Biden - it's not the American way.

Reset into what? 1776? 

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Regarding Chinese trade over time.  Listen to Pelosi in 1996 in this video (ignore the text):

 

 

 

That's a real eye opener. Thanks for the link.

[Blake Hampton]

$3.3 trillion of imports in 2024 × 24% effective tariff rate = $792 billion in cost.

$792 billion in cost ÷ 132 million households = $6,000 cost per household.

$6,000 cost per household ÷ $80,610 median household income = 7.4% increase in cost of living.

 

These are crude calculations that, if anything, widely understate the outsized effect these tariffs will have. Over the last century of free trade, the world has built itself around complex and globalized supply chains, and not only will these tariffs increase the cost of the imported items themselves—they'll multiply the cost of input materials for countless other products. This isn't even to mention what might happen to industry as other countries retaliate with their own tariffs.

 

Today's market was only the beginning.

Once again, Trump is a fucking moron.

[Gregmal]

Inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply and results in prices escalating, typically in an erratic or unstable manner. Inflation is not…something is expensive. Or, a price goes up, in a vacuum, with no consideration for demand.
 

Of course, Jpow is a fool and the way many report inflation inputs…ie this is the “cost” of going out and buying xyz item paints a picture that gives many people charts inputs and dramatic Twitter material. So who knows what this jabroni will do. But at least so far his “transitory” remark seems to indicate he gets it; that tariff up equals price up, but demand needs to be seen and price stability has not been threatened one iota.

[cubsfan]

Good to have you back Blake.

[Gregmal]

Blake lives! 

[Blake Hampton]

It's crazy to me just how bad most people are at foreseeing simple stuff. I feel like if you had any common sense at all, you should've seen this stupid policy incoming from 100+ miles away. This same time last year, if I were to have said anything at all disparaging about Trump in the comment section of the WSJ, I would've gotten absolutely trashed on. Now it's seems to me the complete opposite.

Buckle up boys and girls, voting for maniacs has consequences.

 

[Gregmal]

All the hallmarks are starting to show. People boasting about their cash hoards. People(me included) touting their bonds, and the broken clocks doing victory laps! Might be time to buy soon. 

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

It's crazy to me just how bad most people are at foreseeing simple stuff. I feel like if you had any common sense at all, you should've seen this stupid policy incoming from 100+ miles away. This same time last year, if I were to have said anything at all disparaging about Trump in the comment section of the WSJ, I would've gotten absolutely trashed on. Now it's seems to me the complete opposite.

Buckle up boys and girls, voting for maniacs has consequences.

 

Blake, glad you're back.  I'm trying to think of all the horrible consequences of Trump's first term but can't seem to recall any.  

[Blake Hampton]

One last post before I lay my weary head down to rest.

 

Quote

     Janet Yellen asked then chairman Alan Greenspan: "How do define price stability?" To me, he gave the only sensible answer: "That state in which expected changes in the general price level do not effectively alter business or household decisions."

     Janet persisted: "Could you please put a number on that?"

     And so Alan's general principle, to me entirely appropriate, was eventually translated into a number. After all, those regression models calculated by staff trained in econometrics have to be fed numbers, not principals.

 

- Paul Volcker, Keeping at It

 

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/technology/eu-penalties-x-elon-musk.html

 

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X

European regulators are considering fining X more than $1 billion, after weighing the risks of further antagonizing Mr. Musk and President Trump.