Political Posts

[james22]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Most plausible explanation to me so far that I’ve seen - this was a coup “fire drill” - Putin wanted to flush out any real potential insurrectionists…with a fake insurrection…..the FSB had eyes and ears out to see whom made any moves against the regime in the last 24hrs….very useless info gathered.

 

Won't like what he's learned.

 

In Rostov-on-Don, where people are applauding and chanting 'Wagner is Power' as Wagner fighters pack up to return "according to plan." Wagner's "March for Justice" was a significant litmus test that shows whom Russians actually support.

 

After Wagner withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, protestors came out against the police, chanting "shame on you" and waving Wagner flags. Russians are now even more united in their view that the state is corrupt, cowardly, and inept.

[james22]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Mr Pringles is dead. He will fall out of a windows or die by another misfortune soon enough.

 

He has to know that.

 

But he only has to outlive Putin.

[Spekulatius]

The problem for Putin is that he could be losing his army and then it’s over for him. the coup didn’t go anywhere, but I think there will be lingering longer term consequences from this. His special military operation now has turned inside Russia for once. Everyone know with even a bit of deductive reasoning in Russia now know that things have turned shit, especially the army leadership. At some point the top dog becomes the target.

 

I have little doubt that  Putin survives this coup, but I also think he comes out of this greatly weakened.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

It seems like the western confusion is rising all over the place in MSM here Sunday morning in Europe over what actually happened in those 24 hours or so from Friday evening European Time, which to me actually is a bit comforting making me feel less dumb.

 

Weird and crazy Saturday, having the two main Danish TV News channels streaming simultaneusly on a laptop during the whole day, listening to one of them, shifting between them regularly.

 

I still can't get all the bits and pieces to add up to a coherent and consistent picture of things. Perhaps it is just because it's about that chaotic hellhole called Russia, where normal logical thinking is ... the name of a village in Eastern Sibiria.

 

The only thing I feel fairly confident about is that this was not a non-event. Maybe the coming days will provide clarity to some degree, ... maybe not.

Edited June 25, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luke]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

It seems like the western confusion is rising all over the place in MSM here Sunday morning in Europe over what actually happened in those 24 hours or so from Friday evening European Time, which to me actually is a bit comforting making me feel less dumb.

 

Weird and crazy Saturday, having the two main Danish TV News channels streaming simultaneusly on a laptop during the whole day, listening to one of them, shifting between them regularly.

 

I still can't get all the bits and pieces to add up to a coherent and consistent picture of things. Perhaps it is just because it's about that chaotic hellhole called Russia, where normal logical thinking is ... the name of a village in Eastern Sibiria.

 

The only thing I feel fairly confident about is that this was not a non-event. Maybe the coming days will provide clarity to some degree, ... maybe not.

+1

[Xerxes]

This whole episode can be summed up as :  

 

the enemy of my enemy is my enemy !?!?! Huh !

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

This whole episode can be summed up as :  

 

the enemy of my enemy is my enemy !?!?! Huh !

 

@Xerxes,

 

I think we should stay careful not to oversimplify things here. The below explanation compared to yours above seems to me to be just a bit more granular here, and with shades and nuances :

 

 

 

[Viking]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It’s not “fake” but my god we ve been hearing about all these super big deals with massive global implications and major incoming consequence from all the usual suspects since February of last year. And the result? Nada. Wheat futures are volatile. Lol big deal. -30% oil prices? People have been trying to scream “HUGE STORY” with this Russia/Ukraine thing, for reasons I don’t quite understand, and as someone who is just looking at investment angles…find it both annoying and bizarre. 

You might want to ask a European if Russia’s invasion was a big deal (game changer) or not. My guess is many would disagree with your take. Energy supply to Europe has been changed forever. Cheap and abundant energy is the core building block of every society. Europe having the warmest winter on record was an important factor - an awesome development. The UK is an inflation shit show right now. High energy prices are now bleeding though to wage spiral. Finland is not part of NATO. The Ukraine war is not over. 
 

And we just learned how fragile (and messed up) Russia is. I’m not sure if your aware, but they have a few nuclear weapons… that is a fat tail risk (getting fatter). Not an issue until it is - i’m not sure but i have heard that nuclear weapons can really be a bitch when they are used. Now we can pretend that this risk does not exist… but this isn’t a Disney movie.

Russia invading Ukraine has also ‘informed’ the rest of the world on China (multinational companies understand what is coming) and this is accelerating de-globalization. Totalitarian governments and liberal democracies are like dogs and cats…  I think the US (and everyone else in the West) is looking to on-shore important stuff - like chip production (FYI, not the potato kind).
 

Remember, prices cycle up. And down. And then back up… Perhaps we never see $100 oil again. Possible. 

 

I could go on. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did change the world - economically, politically and militarily. And it is still early days. It will take years (a decade or more?) to fully understand how much. Now i will agree that someone living in rural America or Canada is not being impacted all that much. To them it is probably looking like a big nothing burger.

 

Please note, this is not a doom and gloom summary. I continue to be very optimistic. Change is inevitable and usually a good thing (over time). The West will continue to improve the standard of living for its people. That’s why so many people desperately want in.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Viking

[John Hjorth]

Personally, I think it's fair to say, that what @Viking has posted just above related to the similar last post by @Gregmal has - not only some - but a lot of merit.

 

It is about North America not in any way being dependent on energy sourcing from Russia, while it in the past [long term and short term] has been totally different for Europe.

 

Please feel free here to send your rotten tomatoes and eggs my way. So much for being - in the first place - naive - later - naive and dumb.

 

The change to get this right for the long haul going forward for Europe - is - by its inherent logic and its nature - quite brutal for about every European citizen, exactly as brutal as it is for Russia.

Edited June 25, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

I think we should stay careful not to oversimplify things here. The below explanation compared to yours above seems to me to be just a bit more granular here, and with shades and nuances :

 

 

 

 

lol. 
 

On a different note who would have thought, even in the early days of 2022, that there would be joker-like-character turned warlord that would capture so much bandwidth, and hurl so many insults at Kremlin in a back and forward comedy show, then march to Moscow only to turn around. Oh and his name is Putin’ Chef but he is not really the chef at the Kremlin. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

Thank god the Secretary of State dumbed it down for mere mortals in the west. 

 

[ValueArb]

It will be interesting to see if this leads to Putin and the Russian MoD pulling their most loyal units back into Russia. It was shockingly easy for Wagner to turn on Moscow, and there are likely more angry soldiers and opportunistic generals for them to fear.

[dwy000]

Okay I really know nothing about the military aspect or anything here at all.  But why couldn't Putin control Wagner through the checkbook?  They are a private army funded by the Russian government and supplied by the Russian government.  Why couldn't Putin just stop funding?  Without the money to pay the soldiers and buy everything from food to ammo wouldn't Wagner Group in Russia slowly just fall apart?  It's not like they have their own funding source in Rubles and access to equipment and supplies in Russia without the government support?

[no_free_lunch]

There is likely more going on than we realize.  It doesn't all make sense.   There is a claimed rebellion but there is not large scale fighting and casualties as you would expect.  Surely the Russian army could halt a convoy of road based vehicles if they felt the need.   It seems to be all threats, maneuver.   In a few months we may understand better what this was about.  For now, I feel it is probably just noise, perhaps intentionally so.

Edited June 26, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[John Hjorth]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[formthirteen]

Quote

“Yesterday the defenders of Russia decided to seize power in Russia. Therefore, other defenders of Russia flew to kill the first defenders of Russia, but they themselves got killed. And the Hero of Russia Prigozhin went to kill the Hero of Russia Shoigu. Because of this, the Hero of Russia Kadyrov went to kill the Hero of Russia Prigozhin. And because of this, the Hero of Russia Bortnikov opened a case against the Hero of Russia Prigozhin but immediately closed it. Because the most important hero of Russia, Putin, first guaranteed that the traitors would be punished, and then guaranteed that they would not be. And no one gives a damn about those very first defenders who were killed. The main thing is that they are all defenders and heroes, and we can continue to be proud of what heroic defenders Russia has.“

 

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1673024897046462467

 

[John Hjorth]

For entertaiment, the video clip from the episode in the weekend with English text translation.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

 

[Dinar]

26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

What do you make of this?  Seems to be a bunch of empty words to me (I read, speak and understand Russian fluently.)

[John Hjorth]

I don't know, @Dinar,

 

I still have a feeling that we are only observing the top of the iceberg. Would I trust any of those two men who were primary actors over the weekend? No, certainly not.

 

I consider them both thugs and criminals. They both have blood not only on their hands, but all over themselves, they both don't give a damn how many lives of young Russian or Ukrainian men are lost in this madness. Remember the sledgehammer video?

 

I did not read an amnesty to Yevgeny Prigozhin in the subtitles, more the opposite, I think [, but does that even matter anything?].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Do you consider the translation OK here, @Dinar? Thank you.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Aleksandr Lukasjenko has postponed his speech to tomorrow.

Edited June 27, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Dinar]

@John Hjorth, I honestly did not read the subtitles.  He did not address Prigozhin by name, but he did say that people could go back to their homes, enlist in the army or go to Belarus.  However, I don't trust a word that Putin says.  This whole thing is very, very weird, and I have never been good at reading political tea leaves, particularly in the Kremlin.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Wagner is being disbanded and I expect there will be purges. Prigozhin will pay the price.

 

Putin rarely drops names and I think it is not an accident that he did not directly address Prigozhin. He is already a dead man walking anyways.

[sleepydragon]

There's also a possibility this is an elaborated cover to enable Wagner to launch a surprise attack from Belarus..

[Gregmal]

Is this “coup” what wasn’t why the Nasdaq crashed 1% today?

[ValueArb]

24 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

There's also a possibility this is an elaborated cover to enable Wagner to launch a surprise attack from Belarus..

It’s really sad that the myth of Putin playing 4D chess has any legs left. There is zero chance a “surprise” attack can be launched from Belarus, given the level of monitoring by satellites as well as AWACs the Ukrainians have access to,  not even counting their human Intel inside of Belarus. And the last guy you want running a sneak attack is Prighozen, he’s not a general he’s a recruiter of the desperate who throws his recruits into terrible meatgrinders with little hope of success.

 

Any elaborate cover that involves weakening your defensive lines significantly by moving 24k troops in a march on Moscow where they shoot down 7 badly needed air assets and crews, while making Putin look like an ineffectual coward would be the worst plan ever.
 

This is basic Russian gangsterism, the mafia running the MoD attempted to kneecap Prighozen by forcing Wagner to get folded under their command, and he revolted before they could arrest him once he was defenseless. He has enough troops to get to Moscow but little hope of holding it, so he was able to leverage a fat bribe to stand cien his troops.