Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

You may call me crazy or what ever, I have a personal pocket theory that Crimea for this man is about the distance to the position : 44.419°N 38.205°E , which is what? - perhaps 200 kms? :

 

[Gregmal]

On 6/18/2023 at 11:15 AM, cubsfan said:

As an American, I hate the idea that so much of our GDP goes to Europe and Asia for protection. But what alternative do we really have? Become isolationists again, like we did with Japan pre-WWII? Become appeasers again like Britain did with Germany? 

We all know how that ended..

It’s complex, but it’s also simple. We play this game and brainwash our citizens to think “us good, them bad”….but that’s not the case. My gosh how many times in MSM and even manifesting on this board I hear generalized stereotypes stated matter of factly about the “us vs them” relationship that is nothing but propaganda. These arrogant schmucks sit here and claim “in China you go missing for speaking up” and “Putin is Hitler 2.0” and all sorts of laughable stuff. Meanwhile here, look at what we do state by state and at the federal level with our judicial system or federal agencies like the FBI, IRS, etc! Different rules for the haves and have nots. Any guess what you would have gotten tagged with if you were Hunter Biden lol? Mike Pence, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton all had classified docs that were improperly handled…Trump? 36 charges lol. Imagine how much of this goes on with normal people that we just don’t hear about? The rule of law in America is largely a farce. 
 

All this under the guise of what? World peace? US the benevolent land of prosperity, freedom and koombaya? Where the truth is it is very easy to generically and lazily deduce entire populations and cultures into slapstick representations of lesser thans held tightly within the scope and lens of our society shaped by the puppet masters. Different places have different cultural norms. We just like to mouth off because we think we are superior. If you live in China or Russia or UAE it is culturally different. Often by choice. Are there some who for whatever reason rather not be there? Sure. But that’s everywhere. Here we brainwash our people into thinking everyone living in China hates it, and is oppressed and dying to leave but can’t because of evil dictators. Same with Russia. But you know how many pro athletes, NHL guys from Russia get over here and happily go back or spend time in both countries? Our citizens and MSM spend a lot of time creating these narratives and divisive storylines and I think all you can do as an individual is respect the truth and norms of others, even if we don’t understand them. 
 

As a citizen, I’m kinda tired of them playing these games and wasting tons of money solely out of the need to play politics or some elites only world chess game. Pretending we are “sending aid” to Ukraine while the Lindsey Grahams and Joe Bidens drink scotch together laughing about playing faux War with other peoples soldiers….after of course briefing the media on how we need to craft a “poor oppressed Ukraine against a big bad evil Russian dictator state” narrative around it in order to sell it to the minions.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Gregmal

[cubsfan]

^^^ I agree with much of what you are saying. The US should hardly throw stones at the rest of the world given our ridiculous Federal corruption and 2 tiered justice system playing out. And of course all of us should be highly suspect about President Biden's goals in Ukraine given the bribery allegations in play. Does he stand by Ukraine in order to pay his family's bribes back from Burisma?

Or is he doing it to stop Russian aggression, when he & Obama took a pass on arming Ukraine prior to 2016? Both effectively gave Putin the all clear to continue invading Ukraine. Nothing was more sickening to watch than Obama lecturing the rest of the world like he ordain a new world order.

 

I'm highly conflicted about this myself. You do 100% withdrawal from Afghanistan and let the country collapse - because you are tired of fighting. Yet you are a war monger when it comes to Ukraine.

I have no idea how you defend such foreign policy.

 

US allies need to know what to expect from the US - they must be more confused than ever.

 

I still get back to the big picture that the US & Europe need to decide if the entire world is going to nuke up - or if they, together, will provide some type of forceful umbrella protection against invaders.

I do not think you can discount the 70 years of relative peace in Europe against invasions due to this policy.

 

It's expensive for the US, it should be for Europe as well - but the benefits of free trade allow all these countries to thrive.

[Viking]

“They say ‘you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.’ The truth is, you knew exactly what you had. You just didn’t think that you were going to lose it.” ~Unknown

 

One of my great fears raising three children is they would grow up with an entitled attitude. Being born in Canada they are living in one of the greatest countries in the world - an 8 out of 10 situation. But if they think its a 3 out of 10 situation then all they will do is bitch and complain about everything all their life. What a waste. (And not just their life..l but the lives of those around them.)
 

i also try and teach them to have working brains. Think for themselves. It is not that difficult to understand important issues given all the great worldwide information sources out there today. Most importantly, avoid the conspiracy theory rabbit hole - over time that stuff will turn your brain to jelly (that is actually my sons line).
 

i also try and teach them that actions have consequences. Mistakes are a part of life. They need to own the consequences of their decisions. Most importantly, don’t play the victim card.

 

And of course, perspective is the key to most things. I ask my 2 daughters… would their life be different it they lived in a country like Afganistan? Its population is about the same as Canada’s. Education? Marriage? Occupation?
 

With all its faults, living in Western liberal democracies is a gift. That gift exists because of the hard work and sacrifice of the generations who came before. I tell my kids to appreciate the gift they have been given and live their life to the fullest.

Edited June 20, 2023 by Viking

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Viking said:

And of course, perspective is the key to most things. I ask my 2 daughters… would their life be different it they lived in a country like Afganistan? Its population is about the same as Canada’s. Education? Marriage? Occupation?

Why pick Afghanistan though? Their lives would be monumentally different if they lived in Paterson, NJ or Detroit, Michigan. A wealthy Chinese or Russian family could easily make the same point to their kids….”imagine living in the Bronx? Or south side of Chicago?”. 
 

The world we live in is filled with cherry picked, divisive rhetoric. Really, whether it’s America, Afghanistan, Ukraine, France, or China….most people are just trying to live their lives and do their best and it’s consistently the government and establishment folks causing problems and chaos through interference. 

[Xerxes]

Indeed. Why not say “Singapore”. Run by an authoritarian regime that doesn’t allow you to chew gum. I would love to live in Singapore and not be allowed to chew gum. 
 

Why not Indonesia ? The world largest Muslim country by population that doesn’t come to mind when we think of largest Muslim country. because our default programming in the West makes us think of a country in Middle East as the largest Muslim country. 
 

There are some areas that largely developed on their own post-WW2, became the economic beast that they are today, thanks to CIA (and the like) not interfering, plotting their coup d’état, shaping foreign policy. Even Vietnam and the rest “figured things out” once the foreign intervention ended. 

just like it is a bad idea for central banks causing distortion in the financial markets, it is bad for Western (or any other) governments interfering into the affairs and natural development of others. There are consequences that goes on for decades, long after we lose interest in whatever regions we felt excited by. 

 

[Gregmal]

Our ideas of what is ideal in terms of lifestyle is wholly influenced by where we are located. Go out to Nebraska farmland or inner city in California and most people probably think the UAE is filled with terrorists and any foreigner who goes there will be kidnapped and beheaded. Meanwhile many places in the UAE make much of the US look like a third world country. Then go to South American cities and find the throngs of women who WANT nothing more than to just find a good husband so they can pop out kids and take care of them. 
 

All this shit is perspective, but all of our perspectives are jaded but what we are accustomed to. And especially flawed is much of the North American perspective in that…”everyone wants what we have”. 

[cubsfan]

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

[Gregmal]

I mean there’s this common misconception that where you are born in terms of geographic location matters. Really all that matters is whether you are born into wealth or not. If you aren’t, then what? Well we do a great job of selling “the American dream” as an “anyone can do it” thing and it’s great marketing, but the truth is if you work hard and are half intelligent and especially if you can network or build relationships, you’ll do well whether it’s NYC, London, Dubai, Moscow, Hong Kong, etc. I’d even go as far as to say it’s harder than ever to do it in America today with all the institutional gatekeeping. Mandatory college degrees. Useless designations that cost money to acquire like MBAs. Onerous tax system. Cancel culture. Etc. all made in America. 

[Xerxes]

11 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

not at all. Hahaha

it is just a discussion. 

[Dinar]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean there’s this common misconception that where you are born in terms of geographic location matters. Really all that matters is whether you are born into wealth or not. If you aren’t, then what? Well we do a great job of selling “the American dream” as an “anyone can do it” thing and it’s great marketing, but the truth is if you work hard and are half intelligent and especially if you can network or build relationships, you’ll do well whether it’s NYC, London, Dubai, Moscow, Hong Kong, etc. I’d even go as far as to say it’s harder than ever to do it in America today with all the institutional gatekeeping. Mandatory college degrees. Useless designations that cost money to acquire like MBAs. Onerous tax system. Cancel culture. Etc. all made in America. 

Greg, with all due respect, I vehemently disagree.  While the US has numerous problems, it is much easier to build wealth in the US than in Russia.  I know quite a few very hard working and successful people in Russia who had their businesses stolen from them either by criminals or by government officials.   Yes, clearly there is different set of laws applied to Hunter Biden and an average Joe or President Trump, but it cannot be compared to Russia or Venezuela.

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Greg, with all due respect, I vehemently disagree.  While the US has numerous problems, it is much easier to build wealth in the US than in Russia.  I know quite a few very hard working and successful people in Russia who had their businesses stolen from them either by criminals or by government officials.   Yes, clearly there is different set of laws applied to Hunter Biden and an average Joe or President Trump, but it cannot be compared to Russia or Venezuela.

How do you think this compares, to say the stealth confiscation of one’s freedom and upward mobility through things like hooking people on welfare programs, ridiculous taxes, telling them if they want to be successful the must get degrees that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars that most don’t have and can only acquire through selling their future, and, oh by the way, a real theft, the fact that regardless of where you move, the US government stakes claim to a high percentage of your lifetime earnings solely because of where you were born…a decision no one I am aware of has control over? Which is very subtly a way to discourage people from leaving. 
 

Its just a matter of presentation. Some are brutally forthright about the theft, others hide it better. People bring up someone like Jack Ma. But Jack grew enormously wealthy and then forgot the rules of engagement where he was playing. Same thing we are seeing with Trump now. 

[Viking]

31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Sounds like we ought to pack up our toys and let the Europeans and Asians fend for themselves!

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Viking said:

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

 

Couldn't agree more. Don't forget Europe is an even larger beneficiary of international trade.

China exempted themselves with The Great Leap Forward, meanwhile Japan/Korea took off..

 

Russia???   Well..who wants to buy anything from Russia (except oil/resources)

Like they say in Russia "They pretend to pay us, We pretend to work"...  Quite the system..

 

You can hate capitalism, but socialism is a disaster...

[Gregmal]

Government seizing assets. What would we call rent control? Mathematically, the difference between market rate, and government forced rate, can be extracted to an NOI figure. Put a cap rate on the whole thing. Government stole 30-40% of your property.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other nations). This positioning allows US companies dominate the world (economically) - China and Russia exempted (perhaps India too). 

 

If the US retreats, the void will simply be filled by China/Russia/totalitarian regimes. Shrinking your empire is never a good choice - it is usually catastrophic. That is, after all, what the Soviet Union did in 1991. Reversing a bad decision is pretty much impossible (Putin is learning that lesson today). 

In 1946, United States reigned supreme militarily and economically, relative to the rest of the world. 
 

today in absolute sense, United States is far better place economically that it was in 1946. Its military unmatched in a great power contest, but in relative global sense the United States has been in relative decline since 1946, compared to the rise of Asia etc. And there is nothing one can do about it. Just good ‘old reversion back to the mean. 
 

That is just China and the rest of Asia catching up to their economic potential from a low economic base on the back of their large population. And I think that should be celebrated. The fact that the rest of the world will be enjoying higher standards of living is great thing net-net for humanity as oppose being concerned about the potential of US economic global domination being eclipsed. And that not everyone is going to like Mikey Mouse. 
 

In any case, these two notions ought not to be a zero sum game or mutually exclusive.
 

If the great power of today cannot adapt they will be swept aside. Nothing last forever. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Xerxes

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

How do you think this compares, to say the stealth confiscation of one’s freedom and upward mobility through things like hooking people on welfare programs, ridiculous taxes, telling them if they want to be successful the must get degrees that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars that most don’t have and can only acquire through selling their future, and, oh by the way, a real theft, the fact that regardless of where you move, the US government stakes claim to a high percentage of your lifetime earnings solely because of where you were born…a decision no one I am aware of has control over? Which is very subtly a way to discourage people from leaving. 
 

Its just a matter of presentation. Some are brutally forthright about the theft, others hide it better. People bring up someone like Jack Ma. But Jack grew enormously wealthy and then forgot the rules of engagement where he was playing. Same thing we are seeing with Trump now. 

Good points, and yes, social programs are like a drug.

[Castanza]

On 6/17/2023 at 11:13 AM, Spekulatius said:

I don’t know about discouraged workers, but I know for fact that China has issues like

a homeless population. The problem is all related to illegal migrants that just decide to move into cities, even though they are not allowed too (you can’t necessarily move where you want in China).

 

Not sure how large that is and how this has changed, but I was surprised to find a large homeless population of people living in cardboard “houses” under Highway overpasses and bridges when walking in  Suzhou one day because I couldn’t get a taxi. Quite an eye opening experience actually.

 

These are the fallout from illegal migrants who decide to move into larger cities, even though they are not allowed to. Most live illegally with relatives, friends end what not, but some end up being homeless nd make do in cardboard boxes. They are still likely registered in their home cities where they come from.

 

There are all sort of caveat emptors you need to be aware of when you look at Chinese data. This is probably true everywhere, but in China even more so.

Sounds like the US tbh. A lot of areas in the US are worse than third world countries. 

[John Hjorth]

Here is how civilized nations behave during territorial disputes and how "war" is conducted around it :

 

Between 1973 and 2022, Denmark had an ongoing and unresolved territorial conflict with Canada.

 

Wkipedia : Hans Island

Wikipedia : Whisky War

Youtube : The Canadian - Danish Conflict

 

To me, it has a lot more appeal to fight using flags and alcoholic beverages [here : Canadian Whisky and Danish Snaps]!

 

 

 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

On 6/19/2023 at 1:11 PM, shhughes1116 said:

In World War II, the Germans built the Atlantic Wall, starting in earnest around 1942.  They put over 6.5 million mines in front of the wall, and built almost 15,000 concrete fortifications along the Channel and Atlantic coast.  This was in addition to other non-concrete emplacements and other obstacles erected along beaches and in fields that could be used for landing gliders.  Fortunately for the Allies, these fortifications were mostly occupied by static divisions comprised of “volunteers”, older troops, and others with wounds that prevented them from serving in maneuver units.  The supporting mechanized units were too far removed from the beaches to have an immediate impact, and when mobilized to stem a breakthrough, they were exposed to withering CAS and artillery fire.   Once the lines finally cracked with Operation Cobra, the German mobile reserves were expended/wastes in Falaise and it was a race for the Allies to the Seine and beyond.  
 

we are seeing something similar play out in Southern Ukraine.  Russia has erected numerous field fortifications and protected them with deep minefields.  Unfortunately for Russia, these fortifications and trenches are manned by mobiks - static units with almost zero organic transport, and no training to fire and maneuver.  When the Russians are forced to bring up their reserves - a handful of VDV units - they are exposed to drone attacks and artillery fire.  I think in the next few weeks, we will see cracks in the Russian line.  The Russians will be forced to deploy their reserves, at which point the Ukrainians will deploy their remaining brigades for a culminating fight.  
 

The outcome of that fight will determine whether the Ukrainians can race to the Sea of Azov and cut the land-bridge, or have to call off the counter-offensive.  
 

 

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

[Xerxes]

23 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Here is how civilized nations behave during territorial disputes and how "war" is conducted around it :

 

Between 1973 and 2022, Denmark had an ongoing and unresolved territorial conflict with Canada.

 

Wkipedia : Hans Island

Wikipedia : Whisky War

Youtube : The Canadian - Danish Conflict

 

To me, it has a lot more appeal to fight using flags and alcoholic beverages [here : Canadian Whisky and Danish Snaps]!

 

 

 

 

 

 

I recall few years ago, Norway “donated” one of its many many high peaks to its neighbour who was otherwise barren of any high peaks. (don’t remember if it was Finland or Sweden). I thought that was nice. 

 

Unrelated:

 

i am curious John. What are your thoughts about Greenland seeking full independence from Denmark. 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

You've called a lot of things in Ukraine spot on. I'm curious to know what your thoughts are on the Russian deployment of helicopters to take out Ukrainian armor formations. It made sense for Russia to bench these on the offense after they lost a bunch but now this looks looks like a perfect setup for KA52s. They seem to be sitting 10kms out so they can't be hit with MANPADs and long-range AA is just too far. 

These helicopters fire unguided missiles? They are unlikely to hit tanks so far out. I think they are basically used for crude artillery bombardment.

 

5 of them were shot down recently as well, allegedly.

[lnofeisone]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

These helicopters fire unguided missiles? They are unlikely to hit tanks so far out. I think they are basically used for crude artillery bombardment.

 

5 of them were shot down recently as well, allegedly.

KA-the 52 can and mostly shoots guided munitions including Vikhr which is laser-guided. The problem they face is mostly having to hover for up to a minute because they are so far out and the missile needs to ride the beam to target. 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks for asking, @Xerxes,

 

And certainly a strategically important issue with what's going on in in the whole Arctic Area. It's like a barrel of powder.

 

My personal stance is that the Greenlandic people have to decide for themselves, otherwise, the rest of Denmark, called Southern Denmark, behaves like any other state with imperialist propencities.

 

But there is a catch. No "Block subsidy" from Southern Denmark to Greenland, if Greenland wants its own independepence. That number is around DKK 72,000 per Greenlandic capita right now, about DKK 4 B.

 

So : "Now grow up, or now go grow a brain!"- You can't have the best part of both ways by cherry picking.

 

Source : Sermitsiaq .

 

My personal perception of such alternative is, that under such alternative, the Greenlandic society would start backsliding into its past, where it came from. That may be a wrong perception.

 

USA is already in fact also helping a lot to keep things at the place up, by running the Pituffik Air Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base, thereby pumping a lot of money into the Greenlandic economy.

[Xerxes]

16 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

But there is a catch. No "Block subsidy" from Southern Denmark to Greenland, if Greenland wants its own independepence. That number is around DKK 72,000 per Greenlandic capita right now, about DKK 4 B.

 

So : "Now grow up, or now go grow a brain!"- You can't have the best part of both ways by cherry picking.

 

100%. Cannot have it both ways.