Political Posts

[cubsfan]

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

[Gregmal]

16 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

Yea I guess. It’s unfortunate but reality.

[boilermaker75]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

 

I see some more suicides coming.

[cubsfan]

41 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

I see some more suicides coming.

Oh shit...so right..LOL

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Pick your side. This promises to be a war of attrition. Russia will get outspent, Ukraine destroyed.

We'll just end up with another North & South Korea for years. 

 

Mike [ @cubsfan],

 

I think this is the most cynical post from you I've ever read so far from you here on CoBF.

 

I sincerely hope you're not right.

 

Personally, I think the determination among European states for this not to happen is greatly underrated. It is about our western way of life, based on basic values shared among others - here, among European people and people living in North America.

 

Personally, I also think all my fellow american CoBF members could - and should - be proud to have the president you all have on a day like this with the awesome speech he gave today in Warsaw.

[cubsfan]

^^^ You may misunderstand me John. My post is totally serious and not made in sarcasm.

I am in favor of arming Ukraine with American weapons (I've said it many times). Russia can be outspent by the Alliance of Europe & the USA. Ukraine will fight bravely, as they have.

It's unfortunate the USA & Europe let this go way, way too far, when the roots of the problem go back to 2008...with Russian aggressions in Georgia.

 

But much of the East Ukraine will be destroyed (already has been). Crimea is primarily Russian. Some of the Eastern regions of Ukraine have many Russians.  I honestly think Ukraine will end up looking 

like North/South Korea.  East/West Ukraine - with a DMZ to protect West Ukraine & Europe.

 

I see a stalemate. Not the best outcome - but face saving for Putin - and safety for the rest of Europe. I hope you are able to remove him entirely from Ukraine, I just don't think it's gonna happen.

 

RE: Biden - he's a total loser, with no courage. Corrupt & Weak beyond belief. The Ukraine issue

could have been settled back in 2014, when loser Obama allowed Putin to take Crimea and did nothing to arm the Ukraine against further aggression. This would not have happen with Trump. And of course, France & German leaders share a huge amount of the blame for doing NOTHING as the leaders of Europe back in 2014. Putin walked all over Europe & Obama. Totally self inflicted wounds.

 

Now you have an enormous mess.

 

Peace John.

[SharperDingaan]

There will eventually be a settlement, but not for a while yet.

Most would expect both Prigozhin and Putin in a box, along with more suicides, and a sudden rash of skydiving amongst senior Wagner members. Wagner is already being strangled, and losing. Putin fails to win the war, and he cannot be allowed to live; the nation needs a martyr.

 

This is another Russian Afghanistan, but this time against western weapons, and right on their border. They cannot sustain it, but sadly - until all the old generals are dead (Belarus), a lot more people are going to die.

 

SD

 

  

[John Hjorth]

Mike [ @cubsfan],

 

Thank you for elaborating your personal position on this calamity here.

 

Yes, simply put: Christ, how have we as Europeans screwed up on handling this matter over time, looking at the state of the mess as of now. It's indeed very hard to see a sustainable way forward through this whole mess.

 

However the first step may be very clear for everyone: The loss of lives on both sides has to stop immediately, meaning now. If the opponent disagrees, remove him by use of deadly force, and based on simple logic.

 

Some times it happens things just stinks:

 

Until recently, I have been a fan of our former prime minister [In Danish : "Statsminister", translates to "state minister"] Anders Fogh Rasmussen [While PM, also head of EU under the expansion of EU to the east in 2003] [Link to speech : Never war in Europe again ], after those assignments, 2009 - 2014 Secretary General of NATO.

 

And today : Why even think about i.e. letting a S&P500 company "disturb" in your doings, based on say - its international security matters - when you have the opportunity to bill [dearly] a state in stead, represented by Volodymyr Zelenskyy. [Please see Rasmussen Global]. [Here : Getting paid now trying fix own doings in the past?]

[no_free_lunch]

I did not listen to the putin speech today but did read highlights.  It is notable for things that did not happen. No general mobilization,  no declaration of war, status quo more or less. 

 

The half committed nature of the whole thing is perhaps telling, there must not be as much support at home as the pumpers would suggest.   Surely if he really wanted to win this there would be stronger rhetoric and commitment. As is, they will lose this over time.  I think RU holds Crimea and probably the other ore 2022 breakaway areas but eventually loses the other gains.

 

I caught one quote from putin about the importance of private markets and that they played a role in buttressing Russias economy over the past year.  I assume this is a pitch to RU investors that the water is fine and they won't be nationalized.  However it also ties into my prior point that perhaps the options here are limited for Putin.

 

I feel if the west can keep their resolve then Russia will strangle itself on this effort while in the West what, maybe our taxes go up by 0.5%.  Meh, I can take it.

Edited February 22, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Ulti]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/02/27/as-ukraine-marks-a-grim-anniversary-what-has-vladimir-putin-achieved

[Xerxes]

The globalists and the "war party" needs to address this very soon ... 

 

 

[Xerxes]

Fareed asks a very relevant question:  with the exception of unconditional surrenders in the Second World War 1939-45* most wars ends in negotiation and settlement. I think I made that comment six months ago.

 

* or perhaps 1937-45 if you are Chinese, but hey ! who cares, we care when it affects us so 1939 it is ...

 

Sullivan answer, which is script that repeated by all administration:

- This is Putin's war

- War of Choice

- It could end tomorrow

 

No shit Sherlock ! We know that.

That was not the question ... was it ? 

 

 

Fareed interview with NY Times on their most recent article

One Year Into War, Putin Is Crafting the Russia He Craves - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The West Tried to Isolate Russia. It Didn’t Work. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

 

[Xerxes]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:13 AM, Xerxes said:

 

The traditional high-tech A&D (21st century war hardware) will do ok, but there is a lag time between budget, orders etc. 

 

EDIT: I should add that defense contractors will/are probably feel the squeeze on their fixed-contract Government deliveries as inflation cuts their margin. See Northrop Grumman and B-21.
 

However given that Russia is forcing NATO to fight a 20th century type of war in 21st century, I think a better bet is a broader directional bet on the old economy, industrial, raw material. Even if the war ends tomorrow the replenishment of ammunitions, shells, spare will take years and years. 

 

 

 

In regards to my comment about major defense contractors

 

 

 

[Viking]

16 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

The globalists and the "war party" needs to address this very soon ... 

 

 

What a frightening video. What do we know with 100% certainty? Trump demands from his people loyalty to Trump above all else. So if relected what is job #1? To remake the US military in his image. To replace all the top leaders with people who put loyalty to Trump above the US Constitution, rule of law etc. Now where have we seen this playbook before?

 

He says he will end Ukraine war in 24 hours. Seriously? There are two ways to do this:

1.) throw Ukraine under the bus

2.) give Putin whatever he wants

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

4 minutes ago, Viking said:

1.) throw Ukraine under the bus

2.) give Putin whatever he wants

 

 

 

 

1.) throw Ukraine under the bus

2.) give Putin whatever he wants

3.)  1 + 2 = 3

 

I added a third one.

 

All about branding.

"I told you so ... they were going to f*er it up, and there we are " will be the cornerstone of his campaign

 

 

[cubsfan]

Yeah, the Obama and Biden administrations really did fuck this one up, along with 

the Europeans (France/Germany).  All of them let Putin cross the line - tried to appease him -

played the role of weak and pathetic pacifist with Obama's Nobel Prize. Putin instantly sensed

weakness - waited for his moment - and struck. 

 

Weak leaders never learn that there are always evil people in the world. 

 

All Obama and the Europeans had to do back in 2014 - was give Ukraine the ability (weapons)

to defend themselves. Huge strategic and glaring mistake.

 

Putin played them all like fools.  Now you have your disaster.

[Xerxes]

 

Good read on production rate, inventory etc 

[Blugolds]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

What a frightening video. What do we know with 100% certainty? Trump demands from his people loyalty to Trump above all else. So if relected what is job #1? To remake the US military in his image. To replace all the top leaders with people who put loyalty to Trump above the US Constitution, rule of law etc. Now where have we seen this playbook before?

 

He says he will end Ukraine war in 24 hours. Seriously? There are two ways to do this:

1.) throw Ukraine under the bus

2.) give Putin whatever he wants

 

 

 

 

Amazing America has got to where it is without Trump all these years. Clearly the only way America will survive is if Trump is re-elected...and we cant afford to not have him in office ever again, perhaps its in the best interest of America to abolish the term restrictions for the presidency...so that we may benefit from his superior guidance and leadership for the rest of his life..hopefully he will also train his son in the ways as a future successor. 

 

Biden is a senile goof, plenty of issues there...Trump is the ultimate con-man. Amazing how he claims to be an expert in everything and the ONLY one with the right answers. 

 

Politicians are synonymous with empty promises..but Trumps MO is that the country is doomed without only HIM. The US has had a lot of bad leadership in its history, and it's still here, it will survive Biden, and it will be fine without Trump. Plenty of other options on either side of the aisle, no reason to go back to this Joker.

[no_free_lunch]

I would say both parties have a lot of blame here.  Many republicans are now full 1930s head in the sand isolationists which is a huge reversal.  However republicans are the ones traditionally backing and serving in the military so I don't know that the US would be able to give the defense transfers it does without their prior support.  Democrats are committed to defending Ukraine, mostly, but then their ESG and economic policies are at odds with fighting a sustained war with Russia.  It's bad either way.

Edited February 27, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Gamecock-YT]

Ignore it being Sky News but Michael Clarke has done an incredibly job analyzing the nuances of the war, did an hour long Q&A (just skip over anything that isn't him talking). Learning something new every time he speaks.

 

 

[Spekulatius]

@Gamecock-YT Yes, I watched this as well. Michael Clarke has been providing excellent analysis of this conflict and he really knows the details as well as the larger picture.

 

 

[cubsfan]

9 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I would say both parties have a lot of blame here.  Many republicans are now full 1930s head in the sand isolationists which is a huge reversal.  However republicans are the ones traditionally backing and serving in the military so I don't know that the US would be able to give the defense transfers it does without their prior support.  Democrats are committed to defending Ukraine, mostly, but then their ESG and economic policies are at odds with fighting a sustained war with Russia.  It's bad either way.

 

Now it's a mess that has to be dealt with regardless of party. It could have been prevented by united allies of Europe & US. It's a huge failure of leadership.

 

But now, both are allied - which is a good thing. But they better stop pussyfooting around, piecemealing the support for Ukraine - or they're gonna lose it to Russia. Russia can outlast them in a war of attrition. The Ukrainians have proved they will fight bravely. The spring offensive from Russia is coming. Europe & US better get serious with the weapons - and stop bickering.

 

It should have never come to this.

[Ulti]

https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2023/02/23/data-from-satellites-reveal-the-vast-extent-of-fighting-in-ukraine

[Xerxes]

11 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

Ignore it being Sky News but Michael Clarke has done an incredibly job analyzing the nuances of the war, did an hour long Q&A (just skip over anything that isn't him talking). Learning something new every time he speaks.

 

 

no longer available. 
I even looked for it on YouTube 

[Xerxes]

Good interview w/o chest thumping.

It is really a geopolitical shitshow out there.