Political Posts

[james22]

On 1/29/2023 at 7:56 PM, Castanza said:

The West will drag this out as long as possible.

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

so basically U.S. is dollar cost averaging its non-value added adventures in the Middle East and buying the dip on this one, which also happens to have a better ROI

[SharperDingaan]

Amazing how Russian officials have a penchant for 'accidents' 

Obviously it isn't going well,  and the noose is tightening.

 

Russian defence official dies after falling from St. Petersburg tower window.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9494380/russian-defence-official-dies-fall-st-petersburg-marina-yankina/

 

SD

Edited February 18, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, hillfronter83 said:

This guy is one of the most influential banker in China.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-renaissance-says-it-is-unable-contact-chairman-bao-fan-2023-02-17/

Imo, these sort of things happen a lot in China. If you are in a position of significance,or MD level working in a state companies, it happens. It seems scary to westerners.

 

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Imo, these sort of things happen a lot in China. If you are in a position of significance,or MD level working in a state companies, it happens. It seems scary to westerners.

 

 For many people what is scary (or surprising) is that Chinese do not think this is scary, IMHO.   Which shows a completely different "culture."

Edited February 18, 2023 by zippy1

[crs223]

23 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

 For many people what is scary (or surprising) is that Chinese do not think this is scary, IMHO.   Which shows a completely different "culture."

 

Chinese govt cuts out the middle man. In the US, they have to go thorough social media's "Health and Safety" teams.

[cubsfan]

7 hours ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

 

Yup - with a Russia defense budget of $80B or so - and no US lives at stake, life gets real painful for Putin. He clearly fucked this one up. Especially, if the European alliance sticks together.

[cubsfan]

Once Putin is finished emptying out Russian prisons, then what?

 

 

 

 

[Dinar]

10 hours ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

Why would we devote anything to the Russian threat?   They cannot defeat a country with 1/3 of the population and may be 1/5 the wealth, how could Russia be a threat to the US?

[james22]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Why would we devote anything to the Russian threat?   They cannot defeat a country with 1/3 of the population and may be 1/5 the wealth, how could Russia be a threat to the US?

 

Seriously?

[Dinar]

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Seriously?

Yes, Russia has been a paper tiger for decades.  By the way, how did you get your estimate of Pentagon spending $100-150bn per annum on the Russian threat?  

 

I would frankly worry more about China, North Korea, and Islamic terrorists than Putin and his crew of incompetent buffoons

Edited February 19, 2023 by Dinar

[Dinar]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-ukrainians-in-u-s-risk-losing-legal-status-in-april-d6bceaf4?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Incredible.  Instead of welcoming these educated, hard working people who greatly suffered, our government is keeping them in limbo, and potentially deporting them to their devastated country.  Probably the only time in my life that I wished Carter was President.  Although he did deregulate the airlines and railroads, so he certainly helped the country in that regard.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Nothing should surprise you with the current administration: cross the southern border as a criminal - and will give you a plane ticket and resettlement anywhere you like. But if you are a bonafide political refugee from Europe - forget it.

[james22]

13 hours ago, Dinar said:

Yes, Russia has been a paper tiger for decades.

 

Who knew? They've nukes and acted as a tiger. 

 

And why do you believe European countries are now, after Russian weakness has been exposed, increasing their defense budgets?

 

By your logic they'd think the threat diminished. LOL

 

13 hours ago, Dinar said:

By the way, how did you get your estimate of Pentagon spending $100-150bn per annum on the Russian threat?

 

If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat.

 

https://cepa.org/article/its-costing-peanuts-for-the-us-to-defeat-russia/

[no_free_lunch]

Ukraine is able to hold Russia off due to the weapons inflow from the west combined with their own bravery.  You remove either one of those and it would be over.  Support is definitely still needed.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Ukraine is able to hold Russia off due to the weapons inflow from the west combined with their own bravery.  You remove either one of those and it would be over.  Support is definitely still needed.

 

And it's well worth it, when you consider the huge sums of money the USA has wasted the last few years - passing $1T packages full of pork. No loss of life to protect the future of Europe. 

 

Makes all the sense in the world.

 

It would have made much more sense to do it on the front end - but then Obama was President - and he figured he'll just send them blankets. And many of the

Europeans had their heads up their ass too..

Edited February 19, 2023 by cubsfan

[Spekulatius]

On 2/18/2023 at 5:34 PM, cubsfan said:

Once Putin is finished emptying out Russian prisons, then what?

 

 

 

 

I think Russia will find a way to refill the prisons and a prison sentence will be just a detour to the frontline for those prisoners.

[John Hjorth]

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

He is digging in for the long haul and so should we. Then he adds a bit nuclear saber rattling because that's really all he has left to threaten the west. Same old really.

 

Bullish for defense stocks, I think.

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

He is digging in for the long haul and so should we. Then he adds a bit nuclear saber rattling because that's really all he has left to threaten the west. Same old really.

 

Bullish for defense stocks, I think.

 

The traditional high-tech A&D (21st century war hardware) will do ok, but there is a lag time between budget, orders etc. 

 

EDIT: I should add that defense contractors will/are probably feel the squeeze on their fixed-contract Government deliveries as inflation cuts their margin. See Northrop Grumman and B-21.
 

However given that Russia is forcing NATO to fight a 20th century type of war in 21st century, I think a better bet is a broader directional bet on the old economy, industrial, raw material. Even if the war ends tomorrow the replenishment of ammunitions, shells, spare will take years and years. 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

1 year anniversary AW cover page. 
 

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Amazing speech by Vladimir Putin on Danish TV, started today at 10:00 AM my local time, with simultaneous translation from Russian language.

 

A wild experience. The persecuted innocent.

 

And what to think about all all those promises to the Russian citizens - I think he only forgot to promise more tailwinds to all on Russian bicycle paths.

 

[John Hjorth]

Obviously nothing new in that speech for those persons in your screenshot post, @Xerxes [  ],

 

I specifically noted Alexey Miller, CEO of Gazprom PJSC, among the audience. Man, it's absolutely crazy what has happened to him and his appearance within very few years. 61 years old now and looks like something dragged in the front door by the cat.

 

Perhaps it's lack of sleep related to that the shares in one of the most material Gazprom subs are posted as collateral for provided European financing of parts of the ongoing build-out of the Gazprom gas network, and the cash flow from operating the existing and operational pipeline network can't service the existing debt any longer.

 

I haven't read as much as one piece anywhere about the above issue since the war started, by the way.

Edited February 21, 2023 by John Hjorth

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagners-prigozhin-accuses-russian-top-brass-treason-2023-02-21/

 

Apparently angry, and speaking at times with a raised voice, Prigozhin blamed Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the country's most senior soldier, of deliberately causing the arms shortages, which he said were causing heightened losses among Wagner troops fighting around Bakhmut. "The chief of the general staff and the defence minister are giving orders right and left not just not to give Wagner PMC ammunition, but not to help it with air transport," Prigozhin said. Prigozhin has for months criticised senior commanders for what he has called their incompetence. Prigozhin has said that the defence ministry is trying to take credit for Wagner successes around the Donetsk region town of Bakhmut.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by UK

[Gregmal]

I chuckled at the Chinese response to the US in regards to aiding Russia. I guess the US is the only one who gets to takes sides and then meddle in it? If we are playing this stupid game then so will others. In other words, as long as the meddling continues, so will the war.