Political Posts

[Blugolds]

I think Xerxes makes a decent point..and I think he is being rather unbias about it. I think he made it pretty clear he isnt singling out Israel. 

 

To ask why the Palestinians dont leave is to ask the same question as to why the Ukranians dont just leave...

 

Also, the Israeli-Arab conflict has gone on for so long now that it has made it more difficult IMO. Generations on both sides seeing friends/family killed creates blood feuds, thats hard to stop. 

 

As Xerxes said, to the victor goes the spoils..and as he has said, this is a common thread throughout history, survival of the fittest, all the empires of the world were built/taken...Here in the US vs the British, the Indians, the civil war...when there is a dispute that cant be resolved diplomatically it comes to fisticuffs and the stronger opponent wins and gets his way..

 

I dont think its Isreals "fault" and I dont think Xerxes is saying that any more than the US expansion to the west "displaced" the native tribes, or the Dutch/Roman/British empires were at "fault" for their expansion, at least thats not how I am reading his statements...it just is what it is man.

 

Throughout history, "I will do what I want, and unless you are stong enough to stop me, tough shit"...thats human nature. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Gimme a break. The Palestinians don't leave Israel because it's the safest and best place to live 

precisely BECAUSE the Israeli's are in charge. You think they want to live in the hell hole West Bank, Jordan,

Gaza or Lebanon with the criminals terrorist Fatah, Hezbollah or Hamas in charge? Really?

 

The displaced Palestinians have been offered their own homeland AND peace 3X since 1999 - and of course

the criminals terrorist WILL NOT ALLOW IT. Those are the facts - and you can't change them with this 

stupid "narrative" bullshit.  The only "peace" that the Iranian backed criminals will accept is for Israel

to be wiped off the map.

 

The Palestinians can have peace, prosperity , jobs and safety IF they just stop killing people. PERIOD.

Seems that what the term "civilization" actually means.

Edited March 9, 2022 by cubsfan

[hellowod]

4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

WSJ had an article today about China having interest in buying stakes in companies like Gazprom. 

 

You can bet that they'll eventually buy oil at a discount from Russia (just like they do Iran) and that they'll take a pound of flesh in strategic equity ownership in these companies now that valuations have been decimated. 

All that stuff doesn't sound like a win for China. Basically they "may" get some cheap Russian assets, but lose the goodwill of Europe, which they at least need to be semi-independent rather than for Europe to be more dependent on the US.

[Spekulatius]

I agree with @cubsfan here as far as Palastinians are concerned. I think the rest the world would be a whole lot more sympathetic to their plight if they would govern themselves decently, but even their own leadership doesn’t have any control about what they are doing - like firing their rockets from their density populated Gaza Strip to Israel and then complaining when something comes back.

Fact is their Arabian brothers in Jordan or Egypt don’t want the Palestinians either, because they are at best trouble makers and at worst just plain terrorists.

 

Just look at how Jassir Arafad was effed off with Polonium most likely and we all know where this usually comes from. Successor claimed natural causes, nothing to investigate.

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Spekulatius

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, hellowod said:

All that stuff doesn't sound like a win for China. Basically they "may" get some cheap Russian assets, but lose the goodwill of Europe, which they at least need to be semi-independent rather than for Europe to be more dependent on the US.

 

Goodwill? Does China have goodwill? They basically disregarded the prior treaty regarding Hong Kong, have committed genocides of their own, have acted aggressively militarily over contested regions, and buddies up with enemies (a la Russia and Iran). Now we're all contemplating whether or not they'll invade Hong Kong. 

 

What goodwill do you imagine they have? 

[backtothebeach]

What's so wrong about being a neutral country, prospering from trade agreements in both directions? It will take a long time to heal the wounds of this war though.

 

But what's the alternative? Russia biting off the eastern part of the country, including Kiev/Kyiv, a demilitarized zone and border like North/South Korea?

 

 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

Putin’s Endgame Starts to Look Like Reducing Ukraine to Rubble

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/vladimir-putin-s-ukraine-invasion-stares-down-brutal-endgame?srnd=premium&sref=7zqHEcxJ

 

As I mentioned many posts above this is not an invasion and occupation happening in Ukraine right now............this is a demolition crew sent to level Ukraine such that it will be no fit partner for anyone EU/NATO/USA for decades and by extension its buffer state status (& Russian security) will be restored.

Edited March 9, 2022 by changegonnacome

[boilermaker75]

41 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Putin’s Endgame Starts to Look Like Reducing Ukraine to Rubble

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/vladimir-putin-s-ukraine-invasion-stares-down-brutal-endgame?srnd=premium&sref=7zqHEcxJ

 

As I mentioned many posts above this is not an invasion and occupation happening in Ukraine right now............this is a demolition crew sent to level Ukraine such that it will be no fit partner for anyone EU/NATO/USA for decades and by extension its buffer state status (& Russian security) will be restored.

 

Won't this result in the US and Western Europe pumping in money to rebuild Ukraine? Won't Ukraine then be such a close partner they become part of the EU and maybe a NATO member?

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, boilermaker75 said:

Won't this result in the US and Western Europe pumping in money to rebuild Ukraine? Won't Ukraine then be such a close partner they become part of the EU and maybe a NATO member?

 

Money YES........EU/NATO membership not a chance in hell or in my lifetime now......this is the point of the invasion (demolition).

 

Think about this:

 

Question : What has the EU/NATO/USA learned about Ukraine from this crisis?

Answer:

(1) That Russia cares ALOT about Ukraine remaining a neutral buffer state, that Putin/Russia views NATO/EU/USA encroachment into Ukraine as an existential crisis (ala Cuban Missle crisis) and is willing to spend blood, bullets & suffer severe economic damage to stop that happening.

(2) The EU/NATO/USA has learned a lesson too about its self - that it thought it cared about Ukraine but has discovered that it cares not enough to spend a single drop of blood defending it.

(3) Russia, has reminded the West, that it may be declining state but nonetheless a thermonuclear one.

(4) The United States, has been reminded, that meddling in Ukraine and enraging a thermonuclear power like Russia is both futile (cause the US has no intention of ever defending Ukraine because it isn't strategically important to US foreign policy) and that its wasting time/resources & mental overhead when the real threat to American sovereignty & security is in Asia with China, not Eastern Europe & the husk of the USSR called Russia.

(5) Geopolitical battles by sovereign thermonuclear nations in foreign territories where that country/territory is NOT strategically important to that power are usually decided by one factor and one factor alone - RESOLVE - or put another way who cares more......for example Afghanistan......not strategically important to the United States - who cared more about controlling Afghanistan : the United States or the Taliban? Who had the greater resolve? We got the answer.....and history is littered with these.  OK who has the greater resolve in Ukraine????? - Russia or the EU/NATO/USA? Is Ukraine strategically important to the EU/NATO/USA? is it strategically important to Russia? Answer - Russia clearly has the greater resolve here and the EU/NATO/USA has been reminded it doesn't. Coming out of this crisis it would be politically stupid for the EU/NATO to make overtures again to Ukrainian accession.....build it up economically sure but the EU/NATO will realize that Ukraine needs to remain neutral (for all the reasons i listed above) and a realistic Ukrainian political/economic aspiration after this war is over , should be to become the Switzerland of the Eastern Europe (not an EU/NATO member, this is dumb as we've found out).

(6) What has Ukraine learned??..........that geography is destiny......for 24 million Ukrainian to prosper it needs to have good relations with the EU/NATO/USA AND Russia simultaneously. This is Ukrania's lot in life, the cards it was dealt at birth.....wise political leaders play the hand they're dealt, not the cards they wish they had.

Edited March 9, 2022 by changegonnacome

[mcliu]

Some more background on the Azov regiment fighting in Ukraine.

Seems like the West has no problem supporting these guys.

 

 

https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/

Within days of his release, Biletsky set out to assemble a far-right militia. “That was our rise to the surface after a long period underground,” Biletsky told TIME in an interview that winter in Ukraine. The insignia he chose for the militia combined two symbols—the “black sun” and the “wolf’s hook”—both of which were used by the German Nazis during World War II.

Among the militias that formed to resist the Russian forces, Biletsky’s followers turned out to be among the most disciplined and battle-ready. “They held the line even after everybody left,” says Serhiy Taruta, a metals magnate and former governor of the frontline region of Donetsk who helped finance and equip Azov in the early months of the war. For their bravery on the battlefield, Biletsky and other Azov commanders were lauded as national heroes. “These are our best warriors,” then President Petro Poroshenko said at an award ceremony in 2014. “Our best volunteers.”

From across Europe and the U.S., dozens of fighters came to join Azov that year, many of them bearing tattoos and rap sheets earned in the neo-Nazi underground back home. The Ukrainian authorities welcomed many of them, and in some cases granted them citizenship. Within the war’s first year, Biletsky’s militia was officially absorbed into the National Guard, becoming a regiment within Ukraine’s armed forces.

 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

In January 2018, Azov rolled out its street patrol unit called National Druzhyna to “restore” order in the capital, Kyiv. Instead, the unit carried out pogroms against the Roma community and attacked members of the LGBTQ community.

“Ukraine is the world’s only nation to have a neo-Nazi formation in its armed forces,” a correspondent for the US-based magazine, the Nation, wrote in 2019.

 

In June 2015, both Canada and the United States announced that their own forces will not support or train the Azov regiment, citing its neo-Nazi connections.

The following year, however, the US lifted the ban under pressure from the Pentagon.

In October 2019, 40 members of the US Congress led by Representative Max Rose signed a letter unsuccessfully calling for the US State Department to designate Azov as a “foreign terrorist organisation” (FTO). Last April, Representative Elissa Slotkin repeated the request – which included other white supremacist groups – to the Biden administration.

[brianr27]

Russia is badly damaged by this conflict. It's clear that Russia doesn't know how to execute a 21st century war where the world participates on social media. The world is seeing in real time the incompetance of the Russian military. I don't know if the images of tanks being towed by tractors and helicopters being shot down are real but they are destroying the image of Russian military superiority and emboldening adversaries.

 

Russia's partnership with China looks very unbalanced. Russia's position is extremely weak and vulnerable to Chinese demands. China's supply chains gain an advantage in access to raw materials. The sanctions will drive up input costs for every other major manufactoring country.

 

The EU is temporarily aligned with the US on security. This probably won't last given the EU's dependency on Russian oil and gas. A big question is whether the Ukraine will be able to accelerate developing their own oil and gas in the Black sea. This would be another major problem for Russia. 

 

I think that China is going to come out stronger. Their supply chains will have an advantage in access to raw materials from Russia. The sanctions will drive up the input costs of manufacturing for everyone but China. Japan and South Korea will be disavantaged. The US will import more than ever from China. 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by brianr27

[Gregmal]

What would people peg as the odds, say we were running a bookie operation, that ANYTHING neutral or sharing the Russian POV here can be found in a MSM piece? Not saying I support them, but if I was looking for an unbiased way to see both sides of this thing, anyone think I could get it in the good old US of A? 

[KJP]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What would people peg as the odds, say we were running a bookie operation, that ANYTHING neutral or sharing the Russian POV here can be found in a MSM piece? Not saying I support them, but if I was looking for an unbiased way to see both sides of this thing, anyone think I could get it in the good old US of A? 

 

Does this qualify?  https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Does this qualify?  https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine

Actually, yes. Thanks 

[muscleman]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

China will try to benefit from this, buy some cheap oil/LNG from the Russian etc. but I think they will stay as far away from trouble as they can. This is not their fight and when have you ever seen them helping another country when they had no direct interest or benefit?

They are also seeing the response from the west and draw their own conclusions. Besides this, every Chinese company that does business with Russia has to weigh the cost benefit of doing business there or doing business with the west. That will be looked at case by case and I think it is possible that companies like state owned business do some bartering with Russians, because they have got nothing to lose. Most others will be quite careful, they have seen what happened to Huawei.

 

This is not correct. China is OVERPAYING Russia for the oil, wheat etc, according to a few recent announcements. The goal seems to explicitly put oil onto the fire. I think they believe this puts China in a superior position when the US sanction is not helpful without China's collaboration. The strategy is definitely working, and Biden is reportedly begging president Xi to help. I think China wants to use this strategy to get some good concession from the US.

 

[Gregmal]

Lol sounds about right. Xi playing chess while Brandon begs. Yup. 

[Viking]

Well it is increasingly looking like Putin made a historic mistake. He has a military disaster unfolding in Ukraine. He has an economic disaster unfolding in Russia. He has united Europe. He has made NATO imperative; all of Europe is in the process of re-arming. And time is his enemy - things are only going to get worse with each passing day. His military is not prepared for a long drawn out war. And Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding. Most importantly, he has exposed himself to the world for all to see. Hard to put lipstick on that pig. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Viking

[Dinar]

2 minutes ago, Viking said:

Well it is increasingly looking like Putin made a historic mistake. He has a military disaster unfolding in Ukraine. He has an economic disaster unfolding in Russia. He has united Europe. He has made NATO imperative; all of Europe is in the process of re-arming. And time is his enemy - things are only going to get worse with each passing day. His military is not prepared for a long drawn out war. And Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding. Most importantly, he has exposed himself to the world for all to see. Hard to put lipstick on that pig. 

Agree with everything that you are saying except for Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding.  USSR tolerated Stalin - who murdered 10-25% of the population, and jailed another 5-10%?  People were literally starving to death thanks to his policies and yet nobody rebelled.  I wish you were right though!

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Agree with everything that you are saying except for Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding.  USSR tolerated Stalin - who murdered 10-25% of the population, and jailed another 5-10%?  People were literally starving to death thanks to his policies and yet nobody rebelled.  I wish you were right though!

Uprisings are unlikely, but they do happen. Just look at how Lenin got into power in 1917, in large part due to WW2. Ceausescu (Rumania) seemed secure until this arranged  infamous celebration of his accomplishment when people started to call him names and he was gone quickly afterwards.

 

Sometimes these totalitarian regimes seem so solid from the  outside but can crumble quicker than anyone would believe. War can be a catalyst and often has been in history, especially a stupid one like Putin started. It's not something one can predict, but I would not exclude it from a possible range of outcomes either.

[Viking]

11 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Agree with everything that you are saying except for Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding.  USSR tolerated Stalin - who murdered 10-25% of the population, and jailed another 5-10%?  People were literally starving to death thanks to his policies and yet nobody rebelled.  I wish you were right though!

Looking at Russian history one would have to agree with you. I was taught in university that what causes revolutions isn’t poverty or cruelty or terrible leadership. What causes revolutions are expectations and when they are not met. I wonder if enough Russians have had a taste of a better life that the coming economic depression creates the next impetus for change…

Edited March 9, 2022 by Viking

[brianr27]

Sanctions are an experiment in loss aversion. Putin's control over the media may enable him to deflect the anger towards the west. If he's unsuccessful in deflecting and he's overthrown, the outcome is very unpredictable.

[Dinar]

42 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Uprisings are unlikely, but they do happen. Just look at how Lenin got into power in 1917, in large part due to WW2. Ceausescu (Rumania) seemed secure until this arranged  infamous celebration of his accomplishment when people started to call him names and he was gone quickly afterwards.

 

Sometimes these totalitarian regimes seem so solid from the  outside but can crumble quicker than anyone would believe. War can be a catalyst and often has been in history, especially a stupid one like Putin started. It's not something one can predict, but I would not exclude it from a possible range of outcomes either.

Lenin got power because the Czar was a spineless piece of shit who abdicated in February of 1917, and Kerensky was a spineless piece of shit who would not let general Kornilov shoot communists on sight.  Read Kerensky interviews and autobiography.  

[changegonnacome]

The assumption in everyones thinking here is that this 'invasion' is going to go on for a long time. I dont think it will by the time extreme extreme sanction pain begins to flow through to the Russian economy i predict the war will be for all intensive purposes over.

 

Given this thread is called "end game". I'll posit my end game again which is becoming more and more likely IMO.

 

Russia has already moved to what I indicated they would which is aerial bombardment, Russian troops were used simply to begin the invasion and precipitate the flee'ing of civilians from key Ukrainian cities...this is not an occupying force (number of Russian troops is too small for that)....Ukraine's main cities will be destroyed in the next couple of weeks with shelling, missiles etc.

 

Once enough damage is inflicted such that Ukraine will be crippled for a decade, Putin will then begin 'de-escalation talks' but really they will be an exercise in diplomacy theatre whereby Putin dismantles the sanctions regime in exchange for various de-escalation milestones he was planning to do anyway. The Western media & politicians of course will claim its because of the Ukrainian army with western equipment being so formidable or military incompetence on the part of Russia or indeed domestic political issues related to sanctions. The EU/NATO/USA will declare it as victory of Western solidarity, democracy & freedom in the face of a tyrant dictator. Whatever in Putin's mind, he controls his domestic media & he'll tell them that Russia achieved its aim of restoring Ukrainian neutrality and on the balance of probabilities he'll be right & the West deluded.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

Exactly. Once everyone has their propaganda, er, media narratives where they need them to be, it'll be over. Mondays shocking yet not shocking at all news about Putins demands basically tipped the hand as far as my investing approach and signaled what I suspected anyway. Media drove this to a crazy circus that had even totally unrelatedly shit like MSGS(LOL) selling off. When really it was much ado about nothing and soon VIX should retreat sub 30, energy speculation will cool off a bit, and folks will go back to worrying that 4-5% mortgage rates will kill the economy. 

[changegonnacome]

Yep @Gregmal & I put my money where my mouth/opinion is/was and pulled the trigger yesterday/this morning

 

Cant believe I got to buy MSGE in the low 70's again (unless they have a Sphere planned in Moscow that I wasn't aware of  ).......and Hostelworld (HSW) in the late 0.60's....bargain