This is THE MOST DANGEROUS time regarding covid

[muscleman]

Like most people, I've stopped tracking covid since I got fully vaccinated, and daily cases have been trending down well.

But in the last few weeks, things have changed. With the Delta variant, cases are back up at a rate much faster than prior waves, while most people are unaware of it, and already went back to normal daily life.

Recently, I came across this article, which shows that the antibody generated after taking the vaccine likely acted as the trojan horse and assisted the Delta variant to more effectively infect the human body, instead of neutralizing the virus itself.

https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(21)00392-3/fulltext

This is in line with Israel's latest data. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1424111796860956672

Note: "90% of the adult population is fully vaccinated" as reported in the above news is not equivalent to "90% of the entire population is fully vaccinated". I think Israel's 59% fully vaccinated right now. Based on this data, the vaccine does not help with either the infection or developing severe cases from Delta Variant, but instead make it worse.

 

This phenomenon is called Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE). It has been observed in prior measles vaccines, and the FDA rejected the vaccine back then. This time, I think the FDA and the big pharma will never admit the ADE, but instead defend themselves to the end, because they have authorized emergency use, and so many people have taken it, so the potentially liability is too large to admit any mistakes.

 

The other data point is on page 21 here. The % of hospitalization for the break through cases are concerning. 

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2021-COVID-19-Summaries/CV19-Summaries-08/DCHHS COVID-19 Summary 08062021.pdf

 

So far I would not say ADE is confirmed with the covid vaccines but it is quite possible, and it is very hard to find any more data sources reporting the breakdown of daily new cases and hospitalizations of vaccinated vs unvaccinated. If anyone of you can find any more data sources, please let me know.

 

If this vaccine has ADE, then we absolutely should NOT take the 3rd booster shot. It will only make us even more vulnerable against future variants.

 

Hope you all stay safe.

Edited August 15, 2021 by muscleman

[SharperDingaan]

Vacination does not make you immune, it just makes you less likely to get it, a more effective carrier of it, and less sick if you contract it. A group of double vaxxed in close circulation with no masks are 'safe' as they probably will not get it, and only mildly if they do - despite all being carriers. An unvaxxed, or partially vaxxed person joins this amicable group; they become a statistic. People like to congregate, and if it seems safe .... 

 

So what? 90%+ of new covid cases are amongst the unvaxxed, or partially vaxxed.

Like yeast in a sugar solution, the remaining 'food' (the unvaxxed/partially vaxxed) burns through at an accelerating rate as the quantity of live yeast (the vaxxed/recovered) continues to grow. In the final stages we see a rapid ramp up of infection (new daily Covid cases), new vaxxing, and death. Not a lot different to what we are seeing today in many US states.

 

From an investment POV?

Sudden partial lockdowns temporarily knocking down commodity prices, followed by rapid rises as the unvaxxed pools are used up. Reopening of travel/migrant labour, and new rounds of Covid in the developing world amongst the unvaxxed. Each round having less effect on commodity prices, unless it is a commodity primarily mined/grown (supply chain effect) in the developing world. 

 

Obviously, NOT what many people want to hear.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

COVID-19 is not a major concern for me any more. It has pretty much become endemic ( a bit disappointing that the herd immunity is elusive even with ~70% vaccination rate). Transmission is unfortunately high enough amongst even vaccinated with the delta variant  that this disease will stay with us most likely forever, but the protection provided by the vaccine is good enough that it will be more similar to the flu in terms severity, which I think is manageable.

 

I think we will get a booster shot on the market that is optimized against the delta variant, and I intend to get it just like I got my annual flu vaccination shots. As for the ADE, I don’t think there is enough evidence that it is a risk. The risk is which unvaccinated as we see them filling up the hospitals in Florida and Texas.

 

I do think there is some supply chain risk regarding China. China does not have a high vaccination rate and they vaccinate with the Sinopharm vaccine that had pretty much the worst efficacy of all vaccines on the market. But that’s more a Chinese problem than an US problem, even though we could some ripple effects as well.

[Gregmal]

I don't really have an opinion on some sort of crazy variant emerging thats fueled by a vaccine...however all I'd say is look at the incentives. There is so much incentive at every bend that there is ZERO way we ever get the truth if there is dangers from the vaccine to the degree @musclemanmentions. From the bottom all the way to the highest levels of the top, the arrogant, ethic-less, sleezeball pharma companies, the scientists, and politicians all have gone too far, all in on the "vaccine is safe" propaganda. If there's negatives, they've proven they will be censored or buried. So we're all just gonna have to live with never really knowing. 

 

When you get to a fork in the road, you have three choices. Left, right, or freeze up and smash into the concrete barrier in the middle. I got the vaccine and so far Ive had no issues and its been the right move so for me there's little reason to worry about it until something presents itself. Everyone needs to just get on with their lives and stop worrying about things they cant control, which includes other people...Its a virus, its here, get over it. The numbers, especially if you are healthy and vaccinated, are on you side. Others have rights and freedoms and ultimately those rights and freedoms, whether I agree or disagree with them, aint my business..nor my problem.

[RichardGibbons]

I'm no expert on pandemics, but if the description of ADE is correct, then I struggle to see how it's consistent with this data from Ontario.

 

Of people 12 and older, Ontario has 73% fully vaccinated and 82% with at least one vaccine dose, and Delta is the most common variant.

[Viking]

Until i see hospitalizations rates spike for vaccinated people i will remain optimistic.
 

The key all along has been to implement measures to ensure the virus does not overwhelm your health care system (and cause a spike in deaths). Vaccination appears to be the most effective tool. Here in Canada my guess is we will see vaccination rates hit 75% of total population in the next month or so. 
 

i am now in the ‘how to live with covid and have a quality life’ camp. Let’s go!
 

What would it take to get me concerned? A variant that current vaccine’s are not effective against. 
 

From an investment perspective, i wonder if all the current hand wringing about Delta is not a big head fake (nothing burger). If so, once the market figures it out in another month or so, perhaps the value/reflation trade gets turned back on and we are off to the races again. 
 

The other thing i wonder about is where economic growth in the globe goes from here. You almost have a bifurcation: countries who vaccinate and countries who do not. Lots of countries appear slow out of the gate regarding vaccinations; my guess is as more time progresses they will see the value of vaccinations and get with the program. This should lead to a slow staggered increase in global economic growth well into 2022. 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Viking

[Simba]

I spend 2 minutes googling the "Journal of Infection", and could not find a Wikipedia page.

 

Furthermore, both the actual website and study look like it was made in MS Paint in 1993

 

I was going to read the study, but realized I don't need to. I've read enough data that supports the vaccine.

 

showPdf (journalofinfection.com)

 

Home Page: Journal of Infection

 

 

[muscleman]

2 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

I'm no expert on pandemics, but if the description of ADE is correct, then I struggle to see how it's consistent with this data from Ontario.

 

Of people 12 and older, Ontario has 73% fully vaccinated and 82% with at least one vaccine dose, and Delta is the most common variant.

 

Thank you for providing this new data source. It is drastically different from Israel's numbers and Dallas County's numbers. I have no idea what is going on here.

Any additional data source is welcome, and it is better to include the url to show it is a real chart.

Edited August 16, 2021 by muscleman

[RichardGibbons]

53 minutes ago, muscleman said:

 

Thank you for providing this new data source. It is drastically different from Israel's numbers and Dallas County's numbers. I have no idea what is going on here.

Any additional data source is welcome, and it is better to include the url to show it is a real chart.

 

It was a chart created by someone on reddit, but it looked reasonable based on my in-my-head estimates. I imagine they got the data here.

Edited August 16, 2021 by RichardGibbons

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, muscleman said:

 

Thank you for providing this new data source. It is drastically different from Israel's numbers and Dallas County's numbers. I have no idea what is going on here.

Any additional data source is welcome, and it is better to include the url to show it is a real chart.

 

From the data I've seen from a few different states, it seems to me that the vaccine is HIGHLY effective at keeping you out of the hospital. All of those people who thought covid was like the flu - well, it is...if you get the vaccine. 

 

90+% of hospitalizations are among unvaccinated. 95+% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. Maybe the vaccine isn't 100% perfect in blocking transmission of the Delta variant, but who cares if it is the difference between potential hospitalization/death and simple cold/flu symptoms or remaining asymptomatic? Ultimately, what matters is how easily we can return to life as normal (very easily for the vast majority that are vaccinated) and not overwhelming our hospital systems with covid patients as we do it (also very simple for the vaccinated).

 

Vaccines, thus far, have proven highly effective at both and the only real problem today is that many people are voluntarily choosing not to get it. 

 

[muscleman]

38 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

From the data I've seen from a few different states, it seems to me that the vaccine is HIGHLY effective at keeping you out of the hospital. All of those people who thought covid was like the flu - well, it is...if you get the vaccine. 

 

90+% of hospitalizations are among unvaccinated. 95+% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. Maybe the vaccine isn't 100% perfect in blocking transmission of the Delta variant, but who cares if it is the difference between potential hospitalization/death and simple cold/flu symptoms or remaining asymptomatic? Ultimately, what matters is how easily we can return to life as normal (very easily for the vast majority that are vaccinated) and not overwhelming our hospital systems with covid patients as we do it (also very simple for the vaccinated).

 

Vaccines, thus far, have proven highly effective at both and the only real problem today is that many people are voluntarily choosing not to get it. 

 

Appreciate it if you can include the original data source url. Thanks!

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-13/improving-covid-data-boosts-u-k-s-johnson-after-economy-reopens

 

Coronavirus data suggest the U.K. is slowly emerging from the latest wave of the pandemic, even after the government pushed ahead with an almost full reopening of the economy last month. Virus reproduction numbers published on Friday indicate Covid-19 is in retreat in five of England’s seven regions and in the nation as a whole, while the national statistician’s weekly survey showed infection rates broadly stable in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and declining in Scotland.

 

[Parsad]

British Columbia has extensive data available that covers months and months of data.  All data currently points to that the majority of covid cases and hospitalizations occurring from the Delta variant.  75% of the cases are in unvaccinated people and 95% of the hospitalizations are in unvaccinated people...slide 5 in the link below:

 

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/2021-08-05_Data_Summary.pdf

 

Extensive data available on Covid in BC:

 

http://www.bccdc.ca/health-info/diseases-conditions/covid-19/data

 

Regarding the article referenced by Muscleman in the Journal of Infection...they do state that it was done using modelling, and not actual data or clinical testing.  I agree with their suggestion that ADE exists within vaccines, but the actual hospital data shows that vaccinated people can still get the Delta variant (and probably other future variants), but have an extremely high rate of surviving the infection.  Whereas most of the current deaths are occurring in unvaccinated people.  Like the flu virus, Covid will become an annual vaccine for those that want it or are vulnerable.  Cheers!

[lnofeisone]

6 hours ago, Simba said:

I spend 2 minutes googling the "Journal of Infection", and could not find a Wikipedia page.

 

Furthermore, both the actual website and study look like it was made in MS Paint in 1993

 

I was going to read the study, but realized I don't need to. I've read enough data that supports the vaccine.

 

showPdf (journalofinfection.com)

 

Home Page: Journal of Infection

 

 

@Simba Journal of Infection is a real thing and has a Wiki. As far as the images that look like MS Paint, that's a function of the software used simulate the analysis (looks like ICM-Pro). 

 

As far as reconciliation of the data you see in the wild and the results published in this paper there are few things to keep in mind:

1) Authors presented a study that is a simulation based on thermodynamics (Gibbs free energy minimization). During my grad school days I've done probably north of 10,000 experiments based on simulations and only a handful turned out as predicted (7 to be exact).  Thermodynamics are great predictors of what should happen (or what is permissible) in the long term but the intermediate pathway is not a concern for TDX and is a field of kinetics. The example most should be familiar with is graphite/diamond. Thermodynamically stable form of carbon is graphite but it can stay diamond for a very long time. 

2) ADE is a thing and these authors are pointing out that, if simulations are correct, it's something that can occur (it's thermodynamically feasible). The article is stays very clear of being alarmist and prognosticating that this will occur.

 

I agree with @Viking (and data showing by @RichardGibbons), an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths of vaccinated population (which so far there is none) would be an indication of ADE. 

[Ross812]

It is more than an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths in the vaccinated population, you would need to see numbers in excess of those seen in the unvaccinated population to indicate ADE. 

 

ADE would lead to worse outcomes for vaccinated individuals than unvaccinated. 

 

Here is some more data:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html

[muscleman]

12 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

It was a chart created by someone on reddit, but it looked reasonable based on my in-my-head estimates. I imagine they got the data here.

Thank you for sharing the data source. I dug into it a bit more and discovered this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57869947

 

Canada has been on an extremely low vaccination rate until the sharp spike starting in July, which means that they most likely received vaccines that already contains the sequence to protect against the Delta variant. Therefore the hospitalization rate and infection rate will of course be much better than the stats from Israel and Dallas County. However the whole point of ADE is that the vaccine makes you more vulnerable for future variants, so we have to closely track this data for a few more months before we can draw the conclusion.

 

[muscleman]

37 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

It is more than an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths in the vaccinated population, you would need to see numbers in excess of those seen in the unvaccinated population to indicate ADE. 

 

ADE would lead to worse outcomes for vaccinated individuals than unvaccinated. 

 

Here is some more data:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html

 

I can't open that url. Can you please post it here?

[muscleman]

7 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

@Simba Journal of Infection is a real thing and has a Wiki. As far as the images that look like MS Paint, that's a function of the software used simulate the analysis (looks like ICM-Pro). 

 

As far as reconciliation of the data you see in the wild and the results published in this paper there are few things to keep in mind:

1) Authors presented a study that is a simulation based on thermodynamics (Gibbs free energy minimization). During my grad school days I've done probably north of 10,000 experiments based on simulations and only a handful turned out as predicted (7 to be exact).  Thermodynamics are great predictors of what should happen (or what is permissible) in the long term but the intermediate pathway is not a concern for TDX and is a field of kinetics. The example most should be familiar with is graphite/diamond. Thermodynamically stable form of carbon is graphite but it can stay diamond for a very long time. 

2) ADE is a thing and these authors are pointing out that, if simulations are correct, it's something that can occur (it's thermodynamically feasible). The article is stays very clear of being alarmist and prognosticating that this will occur.

 

I agree with @Viking (and data showing by @RichardGibbons), an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths of vaccinated population (which so far there is none) would be an indication of ADE. 

 

Yep. This is a simulation on computers. You can't say "so far there is none" because I posted two data points supporting this view. But it is not sufficient data to be convincing yet. 

[Guest]

Journal of Infection is a real journal. It doesn't have a super high impact factor but it is legitimate.

[lnofeisone]

9 minutes ago, muscleman said:

 

Yep. This is a simulation on computers. You can't say "so far there is none" because I posted two data points supporting this view. But it is not sufficient data to be convincing yet. 

You are right. Saying "so far there is none" discounts new cases and they need to be accounted for. I also agree that additional data is needed to make this a more convincing case. 

[Gregmal]

Its amazing to me how obsessed people are with this crap. Nothing better to do syndrome. Folks are getting slaughtered in Afghanistan because of direct and deliberate American incompetence, 1,000+ people in Haiti are dead overnight but who cares....meanwhile flu+ comes here after ravaging India from February-May and NOW Americans want to pretend like its a game changer and make a big deal about it LOL. 

[John Hjorth]

Greg,

 

I think this topic does not belong in the "General discussion" forum here on CoBF. It's macro-related, perhaps also political-related. [Enough said.]

Edited August 16, 2021 by John Hjorth

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Its amazing to me how obsessed people are with this crap. Nothing better to do syndrome. Folks are getting slaughtered in Afghanistan because of direct and deliberate American incompetence, 1,000+ people in Haiti are dead overnight but who cares....meanwhile flu+ comes here after ravaging India from February-May and NOW Americans want to pretend like its a game changer and make a big deal about it LOL. 

 

The irony is that even with the Delta variant, the economy continues to recover quite dramatically, as people fear more lockdowns, etc.  I see the Delta variant having some impact, particularly on the unvaccinated, but I don't see things going back to how it was last year.  Cheers!

[RichardGibbons]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

I see the Delta variant having some impact, particularly on the unvaccinated, but I don't see things going back to how it was last year.

 

Yeah, this theory makes sense to me. At this point in North America, people are either:

• vaccinated, so they don't really need to worry much about major problems so can revert to normal behavior
• non-vaccinated, but are unvaccinated because they have little fear of COVID, so can continue to behave normally

There will be deaths among the non-vaccinated, but most will be akin to someone dying as a result of not wearing a seatbelt--unfortunate, but a natural consequence of a decision that that person was entitled to make.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

Yeah, this theory makes sense to me. At this point in North America, people are either:

• vaccinated, so they don't really need to worry much about major problems so can revert to normal behavior
• non-vaccinated, but are unvaccinated because they have little fear of COVID, so can continue to behave normally

There will be deaths among the non-vaccinated, but most will be akin to someone dying as a result of not wearing a seatbelt--unfortunate, but a natural consequence of a decision that that person was entitled to make.

Well, I am seeing some indication from med tech companies that elective procedures are getting delayed, due to hospitals in some areas having to prioritize. I think opening schools is another issue. If they do go back in remote, there is an impact on the economy locally. My guess is by the time we are back to school, the current wave will be receding already.

 

So yes, there is some impact on the fringes, but it won’t affect the economy as a whole.