Have We Hit The Top?

[Spooky]

As a Canadian, blanket tariffs are a disaster and will hurt the US as well. The trading relationship between Canada and the United States is the most comprehensive in the world, with the two countries as each other's largest trade partners

[Castanza]

19 minutes ago, Spooky said:

As a Canadian, blanket tariffs are a disaster and will hurt the US as well. The trading relationship between Canada and the United States is the most comprehensive in the world, with the two countries as each other's largest trade partners

 

Much rather see something like Buffett's Import Certificate model applied. Trade hubs are shifting though, the deficit with China has gone down the last decade. More manufacturing is moving to other markets etc. But manufacturing is not coming back tot eh US in any significant way (IC help here). Any way you slice it, there is going to be some pain for the US consumer the next 10+ years. The question will be at the end....was the pain worth it? In other words, did we address the situation correctly?

 

Whoever is in office will have a hard time in this environment imo....ultimately I bet taxes and prices go up. 

[Dinar]

32 minutes ago, Spooky said:

As a Canadian, blanket tariffs are a disaster and will hurt the US as well. The trading relationship between Canada and the United States is the most comprehensive in the world, with the two countries as each other's largest trade partners

You are wrong.  Trump is not looking to impose tariffs on Canada, he is using tariffs as leverage to make  Canada stop illegals and drugs into the US.

[Gregmal]

As with every news item, people like to act like this one's the game changer....simply, it is not. 

[Spooky]

24 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You are wrong.  Trump is not looking to impose tariffs on Canada, he is using tariffs as leverage to make  Canada stop illegals and drugs into the US.

 

The data on illegal immigration from the Northern border somewhere in the Trump Trade threads shows this is a de minimis issue compared with the Southern border. We also actually have illegal immigrants crossing the border from the US into Canada. I haven't seen any data on drugs coming from the Canada to the US so don't know if this is a real issue. The premise of Trump's negotiating position is potentially wrong.

 

[SharperDingaan]

25% of Canada's US Trade Value TODAY = border control costs + drug control costs + defence spending TODAY. Show hard commitments and maybe o/g (Alberta/Sask/BC) plus electricity (Quebec/Nfld) get exempted, and the tariff falls to 10% of Canada's US Trade Value. Open the supply management agreements and maybe it falls to 5%.

 

Its 2024 folks; auto-pacts, defence arrangements, supply management,  etc. is near 50+ yrs old and well past best-before dates. Modernisation and change is well overdue, are are not dirty words.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

[mcliu]

Would be nice to see more competition for our oligopolies in Banking, Telecom, Airlines too.

The current government is completely useless and this Trump threat will hopefully force them to get their shit together.

[Spekulatius]

Tariffs are a VAT tax on imports basically. It will work just like a VAT which is a tax on consumption of import goods.

Edited Tuesday at 03:25 PM by Spekulatius

[Luke]

3 hours ago, frommi said:

Tried different stuff and ended up buying options on the future. Ideally i would just go short the currency in the IB account, but they don't let me do that anymore (probably because of EU regulations). Buying futures you need cash in the account in case the future moves against you (otherwise you get margin called), so buying options was the only way to do it for me.

I HATE IB for not allowing us to convert negative currencies into other currencies and do carry trades at the EU IB!!!!

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, Spooky said:

 

The data on illegal immigration from the Northern border somewhere in the Trump Trade threads shows this is a de minimis issue compared with the Southern border. We also actually have illegal immigrants crossing the border from the US into Canada. I haven't seen any data on drugs coming from the Canada to the US so don't know if this is a real issue. The premise of Trump's negotiating position is potentially wrong.

 

 

Here's some data.

 

If one thinks that Trump is serious and not just blathering, then the way to interpret it, IMO, is that Canada seems basically let anybody into the country and has ineffective background checks (if checks are done at all). So, Trump would want to eliminate people who avoid USA screening by entering the USA illegally from Canada.

 

The argument seems fairly plausible to me--we're only a few years past the time that the unofficial Canadian government position on immigration was roughly, "if you so much as question immigration, you must be racist."

Edited Tuesday at 05:56 PM by RichardGibbons
Added a phrase for clarity.

[rogermunibond]

What about fentanyl entering from Canada?  Anyone have data on that?

 

Why can't we control our drug problem on the demand side?  Have we given up on that?

[Lazarus]

15 hours ago, frommi said:

PM,MDLZ,PEP,LKQ,TAP. But european companies like STO:EVO, CPH:STG or IMB, BATS, DCC are very cheap so i also bet on them.

As a european, do you think there could be a flight to safety to the Swiss market? I'm looking at a Swiss ETF simply as a medium term spot to park money.

[changegonnacome]

17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

More horse sh*t straight for the mouth of a serial liar - but people continue to believe him.

 

Yep - The correct negotiating tactic for a country coming under tariff wars with the Trump administration.......is to realize that Mr.Trump is the most PR president that has ever held office (i mean they all are)......actually moving the ball down the field in a real sense rarely comes into it........what matters is the headline, the photo, the soundbite and the perception of promises made, promises kept.........give him a public 'win' that can go on the front page of the WSJ, NYT or trend on X for his supporters to cooo over.........like say Justin Trudeau publicly grovelling at the WH at a press conference beside Trump promising that Canada will stop taking advantage of the USA henceforth re: immigrants passing through its borders and drugs and immediately set up a taskforce with the sole focus of fixing transit immigration and transiting drugs to the USA......whatever happens after that PR 'win' barely matters for Trump IMO......it's showbiz......baby

 

[frommi]

9 hours ago, Lazarus said:

As a european, do you think there could be a flight to safety to the Swiss market? I'm looking at a Swiss ETF simply as a medium term spot to park money.

Since there are probably a lot of cyclical companies in a swiss ETF i doubt it.

[thowed]

Swiss ETFs are kind of crazy, as Nestle, Roche & Novartis are nearly 40% of it.

 

On other hand, since two of them are at multi-year lows, and while boring, fairly blue-chip, it might not be an awful time to buy.  CHF currency is pretty solid too.

 

[Red Lion]

20 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

Why can't we control our drug problem on the demand side?  Have we given up on that?

Because it doesn’t work? 

[Malmqky]

I almost think the US should just legalize the possession of all drugs. Then, sell them to addicts at low prices. Destroy the black market by offering an easier, cheaper, and better/safer quality product. The goal would be to tie this to treatment in someway, and make it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to buy stuff like heroin.

 

In a perfect world I think it’s actually viable if executed right. Unfortunately, execution is our governments weak point when it comes to this stuff.

[Castanza]

5 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

I almost think the US should just legalize the possession of all drugs. Then, sell them to addicts at low prices. Destroy the black market by offering an easier, cheaper, and better/safer quality product. The goal would be to tie this to treatment in someway, and make it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to buy stuff like heroin.

 

In a perfect world I think it’s actually viable if executed right. Unfortunately, execution is our governments weak point when it comes to this stuff.

Black markets exist because legal markets do not.
 

“Making it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to purchase” 

 

You don’t see the irony in this? 

[Malmqky]

21 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Black markets exist because legal markets do not.
 

“Making it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to purchase” 

 

You don’t see the irony in this? 

 

 

Of course the black market wouldn’t be eliminated, but the international drug trade/organized crime portion would be destroyed/crippled. 

 

Addicts would just buy the cheaper, easier, cleaner, better and legal product. The goal is to make it so there’s no money to be made by manufacturing/reselling on a massive scale.

 

Yes people would still resell in small quantities and stuff, I meant the government shouldn’t be selling to non-addicts. Impossible to buy from government (prescription needed maybe?).

 

This is a fanciful thought that I don’t actually think is the complete answer, but worth discussing.

Edited Wednesday at 06:19 PM by Malmqky

[Blake Hampton]

What you all are talking about was started in Switzerland in the 90s and it's called Heroin-Assisted Treatment (HAT). There have been many studies that prove it was highly effective.

 

For context, back in 2015, my brother overdosed and died from Fentanyl in Cincinnati, Ohio. That whole tri-state area has been struggling with a pretty bad opioid crisis for quite some time.

 

My brother started his addiction as a teenager on his step-father's back pain medicine, OxyContin. As he grew up, he couldn't get a hold of pills anymore so he eventually had to switch over to heroin to fill that hole. His death devastated my entire family, especially my dad.

 

Our countries drug problem is very nuanced and complicated. The whole drug supply chain, from plants to final product, is very profitable and lucrative. The entities involved are all very incentivized to keep the cow milking, and I almost don't blame any of them. You have middle-eastern countries whose whole economy is based on harvesting poppy. On multiple occasions, the Taliban actually went around and burnt down poppy farms that almost always led to Afghanistan going through a terrible depression. A lot of Mexicans basically praise cartels because they are the only ones who they feel will take care of them. Cartel leaders such as El Chapo are idols to many.

I don't know the perfect solution, but Switzerland has some good data behind it. The problem is that I'm not sure whether our congress or president even know what a study is.

 

I do know one thing however, the Sackler family deserves to lose everything.

Edited Wednesday at 08:39 PM by Blake Hampton

[Red Lion]

3 hours ago, Malmqky said:

I almost think the US should just legalize the possession of all drugs. Then, sell them to addicts at low prices. Destroy the black market by offering an easier, cheaper, and better/safer quality product. The goal would be to tie this to treatment in someway, and make it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to buy stuff like heroin.

 

In a perfect world I think it’s actually viable if executed right. Unfortunately, execution is our governments weak point when it comes to this stuff.

+1

[Viking]

3 hours ago, Malmqky said:

I almost think the US should just legalize the possession of all drugs. Then, sell them to addicts at low prices. Destroy the black market by offering an easier, cheaper, and better/safer quality product. The goal would be to tie this to treatment in someway, and make it impossible for someone who isn’t an addict to buy stuff like heroin.

 

In a perfect world I think it’s actually viable if executed right. Unfortunately, execution is our governments weak point when it comes to this stuff.

Look at gambling today. Now that it has been legalized, has its usage/penetration among the population increased? Yup. And by a lot. And it is just getting started.
 

The question I have: If you legalize drugs will we not see usage spike? Especially with young adults / kids? Legalizing it would simply be a science experiment. And for it to work we are counting on government getting it right. Culturally, much of North America is NOT aligned with legalizing drugs (way too uptight). The tail risks look massive to me - and they are skewed to the downside.

Edited Wednesday at 09:22 PM by Viking

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

What you all are talking about was started in Switzerland in the 90s and it's called Heroin-Assisted Treatment (HAT). There have been many studies that prove it was highly effective.

 

For context, back in 2015, my brother overdosed and died from Fentanyl in Cincinnati, Ohio. That whole tri-state area has been struggling with a pretty bad opioid crisis for quite some time.

 

My brother started his addiction as a teenager on his step-father's back pain medicine, OxyContin. As he grew up, he couldn't get a hold of pills anymore so he eventually had to switch over to heroin to fill that hole. His death devastated my entire family, especially my dad.

 

Our countries drug problem is very nuanced and complicated. The whole drug supply chain, from plants to final product, is very profitable and lucrative. The entities involved are all very incentivized to keep the cow milking, and I almost don't blame any of them. You have middle-eastern countries whose whole economy is based on harvesting poppy. On multiple occasions, the Taliban actually went around and burnt down poppy farms that almost always led to Afghanistan going through a terrible depression. A lot of Mexicans basically praise cartels because they are the only ones who they feel will take care of them. Cartel leaders such as El Chapo are idols to many.

I don't know the perfect solution, but Switzerland has some good data behind it. The problem is that I'm not sure whether our congress or president even know what a study is.

 

I do know one thing however, the Sackler family deserves to lose everything.

 

Thanks for sharing. I hope you and your family are doing alright. A decade is a long time, but losing someone like that is a wound that never fully heals.

 

Also thank you for sharing the info about HAT. This is precisely what I was envisioning. Interested in looking more into this. 

 

19 minutes ago, Viking said:

Look at gambling today. Now that it has been legalized, has its usage/penetration among the population increased? Yup. And by a lot. And it is just getting started.
 

The question I have: If you legalize drugs will we not see usage spike? Especially with young adults / kids? Legalizing it would simply be a science experiment. And for it to work we are counting on government getting it right. Culturally, much of North America is NOT aligned with legalizing drugs (way too uptight). The tail risks look massive to me - and they are skewed to the downside.

 

I have trouble believing legalizing heroin/fentanyl possession would dramatically increase use among the youth. In my opinion, drugs like these are used by individuals due to prior addiction, extreme mental health issues, extreme pain, etc. It's heavily stigmatized.  

 

Drugs like weed, coke, acid, etc? Well...we have enough data with weed in canada/parts of the usa being legalized. I was under the impression weed use was dropping among youths.

 

Yes, I do not trust a government like mine/ours to get this right. But, I also don't trust them to continue the war on drugs/keep trying the same things.

 

[Spekulatius]

Making drugs easily available means a whole lot more exposure and everyone will try them. I mean Fentanyl is readily available albeit not legally and it is cheap and see where it got us.

[rogermunibond]

Criminalization of possession and usage doesn’t work, decriminalizing and treatment doesn’t work, stopping supply doesn’t work.  Maybe legalization works but I doubt it.  
 

What countries have very low or no illicit drug usage?  
 

Seems to me that the problem is a WEIRD one - western, educated, industrialized, rich democracies.

Would the US population tolerate the death penalty for dealing and trafficking?

Edited Wednesday at 11:32 PM by rogermunibond