Leaving New York City

[changegonnacome]

Anecdotally as somebody who lives in NYC and knows folks in the real estate game so I ask every now and again what's going on in 7% mortgage land.....to transactions and prices....the answer I get back pretty much...... is there is so much intergenerational wealth in the Northeast, which allows enough prospective purchasers to skip over the problems that say 7%+  mortgage rates would provide to a more normal middle America population pool that NYC property is barely skipping a beat.

 

The Bank of Mam & Dad GSIBs wouldn't like to see DTI's or large deposit requirements mess up the next generations acquisition of an NYC pad. Twin that with low inventory (the 3% 30yr fixed rate crowd) and deals still are getting done at flat-ish prices versus 21/22.

[fareastwarriors]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Anecdotally as somebody who lives in NYC and knows folks in the real estate game so I ask every now and again what's going on in 7% mortgage land.....to transactions and prices....the answer I get back pretty much...... is there is so much intergenerational wealth in the Northeast, which allows enough prospective purchasers to skip over the problems that say 7%+  mortgage rates would provide to a more normal middle America population pool that NYC property is barely skipping a beat.

 

The Bank of Mam & Dad GSIBs wouldn't like to see DTI's or large deposit requirements mess up the next generations acquisition of an NYC pad. Twin that with low inventory (the 3% 30yr fixed rate crowd) and deals still are getting done at flat-ish prices versus 21/22.

 

I'm in the Bay Area in Cali and a decently priced house in a good neighborhood is still flying off the MLS. 

 

Just no inventory at all...

[changegonnacome]

Yep there's just a super solid bid under certain locations.......in stock market parlance......these are low beta locations.......and the cap rates (or multiples) folks pay reflect exactly that.

[changegonnacome]

Given office & NYC are interwoven the below might be interesting:

 

[Gregmal]

Another NY firm dumpster diving in NY junk eh? If I was fishing for NY bros they’d all be caught on the same lure. 
 

Jokes aside office is so extremely beaten down, as is a lot of the sketchy reit stuff, that you can probably make some money on a bounce. But to actually be investing here I think it’s just a much tougher proposition that requires a bit of blind faith. The whole occupancy issue and spiral is gonna take time to play out. Still think ESRT is the best of the bunch.
 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Gregmal

[LC]

On 7/11/2023 at 4:04 PM, changegonnacome said:

Yep there's just a super solid bid under certain locations.......in stock market parlance......these are low beta locations.......and the cap rates (or multiples) folks pay reflect exactly that.

 

For other buyers (low/no cash, first/second time homeowners, younger and middle class), there is no inventory.

 

Hence the homebuilders doing well and stuff like homebuilders and JOE/PCYO etc. catching a bid. Although JOE also has some additional drivers (coastline expansion, retirement/vacation homes etc.). But my take is that it is new builds rather than existing inventory turning over.

Edited July 13, 2023 by LC

[changegonnacome]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Still think ESRT is the best of the bunch.

 

Yep made some serious $$$ back in the day in this name.........ESRT works.......cause it's not really office at all.......in all practicality it should trade more with United airlines and marriott than CRE given so much of the intrinsic value is a indestructible tourist attraction in Midtown Manhattan

[Spooky]

I’m in NYC for work and it is bumping here, lots of energy and people. Also, I just ran into I just Stanley Druckenmiller at a restaurant in Midtown (the restaurant was packed).

[LC]

18 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I’m in NYC for work and it is bumping here, lots of energy and people. Also, I just ran into I just Stanley Druckenmiller at a restaurant in Midtown (the restaurant was packed).

Yep, I was in over the weekend and the baby is back. Was a damn blast, every hood I was in was packed like 2016.

[fareastwarriors]

 

The rise of the Manhattan mega renter

 

Who are the new breed of super-prime property tenants paying turbocharged rents of $25,000-$75,000 a month — and why?

Edited May 10 by fareastwarriors

[fareastwarriors]

New York City’s Apartment Shortage Is Set to Get Even Worse

[Spekulatius]

I bet Miami cannot top this:

 

[Gregmal]

Man not even the CEO of a major American company is safe in this dump. 

[Saluki]

32 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Man not even the CEO of a major American company is safe in this dump. 

 

It looks like a targeted hit.  News reports say that the shooter was waiting outside for more than 5 minutes and made his move when he saw the CEO at the entrance to the conference where he scheduled to speak.  Scary nonetheless.  

[Gregmal]

What are the odds it’s a policyholder who got stiffed? 

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What are the odds it’s a policyholder who got stiffed? 

As someone who has their insurance….high… 

[rkbabang]

 

[John Hjorth]

Crazy stuff. Pure euthanasia. This will likely hit about every boardroom for any major US company, management security up for discussion.

[Luke]

18 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Beyond brutal holy shit, like it's nothing...

[Dalal.Holdings]

10 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Crazy stuff. Pure euthanasia. This will likely hit about every boardroom for any major US company, management security up for discussion.

 

Please no. Shareholders don't need to be paying for every corporate exec to get a Secret Service detail (as we've recently seen, even the Secret Service is not enough)

 

Edited December 4 by Dalal.Holdings

[Luke]

[Paarslaars]

52 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What are the odds it’s a policyholder who got stiffed? 

Yeah most likely, probably got financially ruined by it... God bless 'socialist' europe with universal healthcare I guess.

[rkbabang]

This looks more pro hit than disgruntled customer to me.  1. the lack of hesitation.  2. The suppressor and low pressure subsonic ammo.  Not even enough pressure to cycle the firearm.  He shoots, racks slide, shoots again, racks slide again, all without confusion due to lack of cycling which probably means this was an intentional weapon/ammo choice and he knew he would have to rack the slide between shots.  This isn't a setup your average gun owner has.  You need to hold an FFL (Federal Firearms License) to buy a suppressor and buy a $200 tax stamp for each one.

[LC]

12 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Yeah most likely, probably got financially ruined by it... God bless 'socialist' europe with universal healthcare I guess.

 

Honestly how surprised are people? US health insurance tactics have pushed people into bankruptcy. Lives are ruined and they have no recourse. I'm surprised something like this hasn't happened sooner. 

[Gregmal]

Insurance companies need to be accountable. Especially when mandates by big government force coverage…it’s abusive and onerous. A normal person can’t drive a car, IE make a living, without car insurance. They can’t buy or rent a home, without insurance. They can’t go to a doctor, without insurance. And they get these things, not with $700 an hour lawyers in their back pocket, so they can prepare themselves for the scumbag Wall Street guys who fuck them when something happens to the “home/car/person” they have insurance for…”because of what the contract says”.