Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[gfp]

This article is pretty funny. Go Toronto Star!

 

“And a renowned stock investor who left Berkshire exposed to last year’s stock-market rout is difficult to regard as risk-averse, which Buffett declares himself to be.”

 

 

https://www.thestar.com/amp/business/opinion/2023/03/02/berkshire-investors-would-do-better-if-the-firm-was-broken-up-its-time-for-warren-buffett-to-step-aside.html

 

[longlake95]

don't think I've seen a worse (by that I mean, poorly researched and lack of basic accounting knowledge) article on BRK. Go get'em Semper. 

Edited March 2, 2023 by longlake95

[Munger_Disciple]

21 minutes ago, gfp said:

This article is pretty funny. Go Toronto Star!

 

“And a renowned stock investor who left Berkshire exposed to last year’s stock-market rout is difficult to regard as risk-averse, which Buffett declares himself to be.”

 

 

https://www.thestar.com/amp/business/opinion/2023/03/02/berkshire-investors-would-do-better-if-the-firm-was-broken-up-its-time-for-warren-buffett-to-step-aside.html

 

 

LOL

At first I thought it was satire but then realized it wasn't sadly. This is probably the worst article on Berkshire I have ever read. 

[gfp]

I was curious if chatGPT would write a better one

 

Quote

Write an essay arguing that Berkshire Hathaway should be broken up and Warren Buffett should step down.

 

 

As an AI language model, I cannot take a position on whether or not Berkshire Hathaway should be broken up and Warren Buffett should step down. However, I can provide a balanced essay with arguments for both sides.

On the one hand, some argue that Berkshire Hathaway has become too large and complex for any one individual to manage effectively. With its diverse portfolio of businesses and investments, it can be difficult for even an experienced and successful CEO like Warren Buffett to keep track of everything. This can lead to missed opportunities or poor decision-making, which could ultimately harm the company's performance.

Breaking up Berkshire Hathaway could help to mitigate these concerns by creating smaller, more manageable companies that can focus on their core competencies. This could lead to greater innovation, efficiency, and profitability in the long run. Additionally, it would allow shareholders to invest in specific businesses rather than a broad and diverse portfolio, which could improve transparency and accountability.

Furthermore, some argue that Warren Buffett's time at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway has come to an end. At 91 years old, he is no longer the young and energetic CEO he once was. While he has been a successful and iconic leader, there are concerns that his age and health could impact his ability to make important decisions or respond to emerging challenges. Stepping down could allow a new CEO with fresh perspectives and ideas to take the reins and drive the company forward.

On the other hand, many argue that Berkshire Hathaway's success is due in large part to Warren Buffett's leadership and vision. He has been the face of the company for over 50 years and has built a reputation as one of the world's most successful investors. His deep knowledge of the markets and his ability to spot valuable opportunities has helped to create tremendous value for shareholders.

Breaking up Berkshire Hathaway could diminish the company's brand and reputation, as well as its ability to leverage its size and scale to make large investments and acquisitions. Additionally, while Buffett is certainly getting older, he has shown no signs of slowing down or losing his touch. He has surrounded himself with a talented team of executives and has created a strong corporate culture that values long-term thinking, ethical behavior, and prudent risk-taking.

In conclusion, the question of whether Berkshire Hathaway should be broken up and Warren Buffett should step down is a complex and nuanced one. While there are valid arguments on both sides, it ultimately comes down to a question of risk versus reward. Breaking up the company could potentially create greater long-term value, but it also carries significant risks and uncertainties. Similarly, while Buffett's age and health are certainly factors to consider, his track record of success and leadership cannot be ignored. Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to make significant changes to Berkshire Hathaway's structure and leadership will need to be carefully considered and debated by shareholders, board members, and other stakeholders.

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

20 minutes ago, gfp said:

I was curious if chatGPT would write a better one

 

 

 

Wow! ChatGPT's article is a lot better than the one in Toronto Star. I think we have proved that 

AI >>> Most human intelligence

Edited March 2, 2023 by Munger_Disciple

[John Hjorth]

Quotes from the MKL topic in "Investment Ideas" forum of posts by Sanjeev [ @Parsad], @dealraker & @Viking, for further discussion separately :

 

On 3/6/2023 at 3:08 AM, Parsad said:

 

Sadly, it's unlikely that Buffett or Munger will be around after the next decade.  Will BRK's advantage still continue under the leadership of others with such massive amounts of capital?  Cheers!

 

On 3/6/2023 at 3:19 AM, dealraker said:

I think what is Berkshire now will be several separate stocks in ten years.

 

23 hours ago, Viking said:

Buffett gets a free pass on so many things. Rightly so… he has earned it. It is his company. And he is the controlling shareholder. The new guy? Has earned nothing. Not his company. Not the controlling shareholder. Now if the new guy nails it (or gets lucky) then Berkshire will likely continue on its merry way. But if adversity strikes and is persistent… nothing would surprise me. It will be super interesting to follow.

 

This future break-up scenerio for Berkshire has pooped popped up regularly here on CoBF within the last decade - now four or five times during that period, I think.

 

I do not recall ever to have seen anyone taking a serious stab at analyzing such a scenario and trying generate some written reflections - the closest thing has been a piece by Ravi Nagarajan [The Rational Walk] within the last three years or so, based on the share class structure.

 

- @Viking considers it super interesting to follow. I would say ditto, but like a nightmare, or like seing "Cliffhanger" on a large screen, while you're suffering severely from acrofobia!

 

Anyone?

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by John Hjorth
Lack of use of invisible editing intended!

[Saluki]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Quotes from the MKL topic in "Investment Ideas" forum of posts by Sanjeev [ @Parsad], @dealraker & @Viking, for further discussion separately :

 

 

 

 

This future break-up scenerio for Berkshire has pooped popped up regularly here on CoBF within the last decade - now four or five times during that period, I think.

 

I do not recall ever to have seen anyone taking a serious stab at analyzing such a scenario and trying generate some written reflections - the closest thing has been a piece by Ravi Nagarajan [The Rational Walk] within the last three years or so, based on the share class structure.

 

- @Viking consider it super interesting to follow. I would say ditto, but like a nightmare, or like seing "Cliffhanger" on a large screen, while you're suffering severely from acrofobia!

 

Anyone?

 

 

If i recall, BNSF was purchased through the National Indemnity Insurance subsidiary instead of directly through the BRK parent. 

One commentator (I forget who) speculated that he did it that way to make it harder for any successor to try to break up. It was a better idea than relying on corporate culture. 

 

Since the railroad can produce steady income like a utility, by placing it in an insurance sub, the state insurance regulator may make it harder for you to spin it off without replacing it with some equally large assets on the balance sheet.

 

Since BRK is so decentralized, it would be tempting to break it apart, since the subs are essentially already independent businesses. I think the hand picked successors and the family members on the board to who were chosen to perpetuate the culture rather than for their business acumen, are another line of defense against that breakup strategy.

[Munger_Disciple]

You guys should all relax about the break-up of Berkshire. It isn't going to happen (with very high probability) during our lifetime and beyond. Buffett knows his most important legacy is Berkshire and he is firmly against break-up; he wrote extensively on the advantages of the Berkshire conglomerate structure. He structured Berkshire so that it is almost impossible to break-up and successor is firmly in place. Do you guys really think he is going to blow the important thing for his legacy? I don't think so.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

You guys should all relax about the break-up of Berkshire. It isn't going to happen (with very high probability) during our lifetime and beyond. Buffett knows his most important legacy is Berkshire and he is firmly against break-up; he wrote extensively on the advantages of the Berkshire conglomerate structure. He structured Berkshire so that it is almost impossible to break-up and successor is firmly in place. Do you guys really think he is going to blow the important thing for his legacy? I don't think so.

 

Just because Buffett can do the conglomerate thing better right now it doesn't mean a) someone else can run it better than breaking up b) economies change c) tax situations change

[Munger_Disciple]

1 minute ago, stahleyp said:

 

Just because Buffett can do the conglomerate thing better right now it doesn't mean a) someone else can run it better than breaking up b) economies change c) tax situations change

 

I will take the other side of this bet, i.e., Berkshire will endure in its current form for a long, long time. 

[Xerxes]

Reposted here 

 

what is the highest level of a theoretical BRK breakup it can have ?

 

the stock portfolio is mostly held at the insurance as other stated. So of Buffett’s  famous four pillars*, three of them are entangled but that leaves BHE, the fourth pillar, as the easiest (relatively speaking) to spin. 
 

am I correct in stating that ?
 

 

* insurance, BNSF, BHE and Apple

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Reposted here 

 

 

what is the highest level of a theoretical BRK breakup it can have ?

 

the stock portfolio is mostly held at the insurance as other stated. So of Buffett’s  famous four pillars*, three of them are entangled but that leaves BHE, the fourth pillar, as the easiest (relatively speaking) to spin. 
 

am I correct in stating that ?
 

 

* insurance, BNSF, BHE and Apple

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off.

 

I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

Edited March 7, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Blugolds]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off.

 

I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

 

Also IMO BHE has the largest potential for deployment of tremendous amounts of future capital for "satisfactory" rates of return. Who knows what the future holds as far as the path the US takes with energy, but BHE has huge advantages in the ability to offer options with little red tape, quick decisions made to go in directions that would otherwise require approval from shareholders, securing of financing etc with competitors that doesnt exist with BHE. Potential for almost unlimited investment if the numbers make sense providing win/win opportunities for customers, states and BRK shareholders. When I look at BRK as a whole, BHE is what gets me most excited for the future as a shareholder. 

[oscarazocar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off.

 

I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

It would be very hard to dispose of those equity stakes with paying taxes, which is a big part of the reason they aren't sold.  Berkshire was able to dispose of its Washington Post and Proctor & Gamble stakes through cash-rich splitoffs a little while back, but those are tricky to do and the stars have to line up.

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Also IMO BHE has the largest potential for deployment of tremendous amounts of future capital for "satisfactory" rates of return. Who knows what the future holds as far as the path the US takes with energy, but BHE has huge advantages in the ability to offer options with little red tape, quick decisions made to go in directions that would otherwise require approval from shareholders, securing of financing etc with competitors that doesnt exist with BHE. Potential for almost unlimited investment if the numbers make sense providing win/win opportunities for customers, states and BRK shareholders. When I look at BRK as a whole, BHE is what gets me most excited for the future as a shareholder. 

Great post and totally agree. I was just reflecting on this today and thinking what an incredible swag of assets to hold at this point in time.  Buffett said for many years that the energy business was always about wealth protection, understated to the last

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. However, if it is were possible to spin BHE it would make the least sense because BHE has so much depreciation that they have a negative income tax rate, meaning they reduce taxes for the rest of Berkshire as long as they belong to the conglomerate and would lose those tax credits if they were stand-alone. I think BHE is actually the least likely part to be spun off.

 

I think the easiest so spin off would be the large minors stakes that also present some deadwood like KFC or maybe even KO. They are not controlled by Berkshire, so Berkshire could sell them off, as ai think they are more or less sentimental holdings in WEB coffee can portfolio and unlikely to outperform in the future,

 

Thanks.

Though wouldn't KO be also be one of those owned through the float and not directly through the group's balance sheet.

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

2 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Also IMO BHE has the largest potential for deployment of tremendous amounts of future capital for "satisfactory" rates of return. Who knows what the future holds as far as the path the US takes with energy, but BHE has huge advantages in the ability to offer options with little red tape, quick decisions made to go in directions that would otherwise require approval from shareholders, securing of financing etc with competitors that doesnt exist with BHE. Potential for almost unlimited investment if the numbers make sense providing win/win opportunities for customers, states and BRK shareholders. When I look at BRK as a whole, BHE is what gets me most excited for the future as a shareholder. 

 

+1

 

In addition, I think there is an excellent symbiotic relationship between insurance & BHE where insurance generates the capital via float and can be invested in BHE at decent rates of return. That's why I think it would be stupid to try to break up Berkshire. As a whole, Berkshire's intrinsic value is greater than the pieces. 

[Spooky]

7 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

+1

 

In addition, I think there is an excellent symbiotic relationship between insurance & BHE where insurance generates the capital via float and can be invested in BHE at decent rates of return. That's why I think it would be stupid to try to break up Berkshire. As a whole, Berkshire's intrinsic value is greater than the pieces. 

 

Exactly. In my opinion the large amount of float BRK has available reduces its cost of capital which gives it an advantage in capital intensive industries which is why BRK is the largest owner of PP&E in America. It is the best owner of these types of assets.

[CassiusKing1]

Agreed 100%.  Berk is more valuable as it is, not broken up.

 

I'm still wishing that WEB takes out Costco.  I think it fits perfectly and compliments so many of our businesses.

Recurring revenue from membership dues.  Costco offers auto/home insurance that can be combined with BRK's already existing businesses.  Costco could be a little like the BRK annual meeting where Costco would carry See's Candies, Benjamin Moore Paint, etc.  BRK is pretty much a Costco now without the singular store front and everything under one roof.

[Blugolds]

14 minutes ago, CassiusKing1 said:

Agreed 100%.  Berk is more valuable as it is, not broken up.

 

I'm still wishing that WEB takes out Costco.  I think it fits perfectly and compliments so many of our businesses.

Recurring revenue from membership dues.  Costco offers auto/home insurance that can be combined with BRK's already existing businesses.  Costco could be a little like the BRK annual meeting where Costco would carry See's Candies, Benjamin Moore Paint, etc.  BRK is pretty much a Costco now without the singular store front and everything under one roof.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

20 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

I will take the other side of this bet, i.e., Berkshire will endure in its current form for a long, long time. 

 

I would take the other side of that bet. I would be very, very surprised if this is not too big of a beast for someone less capable than Buffett to manage. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a bunch of spin offs down the road.

[John Hjorth]

16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I am not sure where BHE is held, but suspect it’s at the insurance level as well. ....

 

I did check up on the BHE ownership. It's actually owned by Berkshire Hathaway, the parent, and has been since control was obtained over it in 1999. The documentation for it is in the the attachments to the BHE 2022 10-K on SEC website.

Edited March 7, 2023 by John Hjorth

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, stahleyp said:

 

I would take the other side of that bet. I would be very, very surprised if this is not too big of a beast for someone less capable than Buffett to manage. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a bunch of spin offs down the road.

 

How does Warren do this when he's made clear to many sellers that their companies will not be sold once acquired for Berkshire?   I believe his only condition was that unless the business was struggling and forecasting unending losses - he would not sell the founder's business for a few extra points of return to Berkshire.

 

He's not going to violate that promise, given his reputation.

[gfp]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I did check up on the BHE ownership. It's actually owned by Berkshire Hathaway, the parent, and has been since control was obtained over it in 1999. The documentation for it is in the the attachments to the BHE 2022 10-K on SEC website.

That is correct.  The only BHE shares owned by the Insurance Companies are the preferred shares issued to fund the recent pipeline deal.  Much of that has already been paid back / redeemed.  The insurance companies also buy publicly trading bonds of Berkshire subsidiaries from time to time in the market as an investment and I have seen some BHE bonds in National Indemnity's portfolio.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you for bringing all shades and details on the matter to the table here, @gfp. It's appreciated much, as always.