Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[UK]

2 hours ago, Charlie said:

Any good guesses what Buffett bought in Q4 2022?

 

My guesses would be Occidental, Apple and some share repurchases.

 

More TSM?

[gfp]

2 hours ago, Charlie said:

Any good guesses what Buffett bought in Q4 2022?

 

My guesses would be Occidental, Apple and some share repurchases.

 

Berkshire can't keep additional OXY purchases a secret.  The last time Berkshire added to OXY was 9/28 -

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924322032210/xslF345X03/doc4.xml

 

I think UK is spot on with the TSM guess and I would expect that position to be larger than most expect when the 13F comes out.  

 

I would have guessed some Celanese shares but I'm not sure that is a Buffett choice and they can't really add much to that position without it hitting 10% so that one is probably done.

 

Personally I hope he cools it with the Apple share purchases but Warren is always full of surprises.

[Jaygo]

I think more Para, Tsmc, hopefully some amazon, wouldn't be surprised to see visa too as it was sub 200 for while

 

I guess chevron would have had some announcement but i'm sure he is liking the return of capital.

 

I wish he would hunt in the Canadian market, our values are so much cheaper and there are tons of oligopolies.

[sleepydragon]

4 hours ago, Charlie said:

Any good guesses what Buffett bought in Q4 2022?

 

My guesses would be Occidental, Apple and some share repurchases.

 

How about BABA or some Chinese stocks

after all, he bought TSM and nobody thought of that.

 

[Charlie]

It also could be that he bought more german equities:

 

BASF, Munich Re, Allianz are pretty much up sharply.

 

After I saw the charts I bought some more Berkshire. 

[jbwent63]

I'm wondering if any of the stocks held by Allegheny at the last reporting date will be included in Berkshires 12-31-22 13-F report, or does everyone think they would have all been liquidated prior to the transaction?

[Munger_Disciple]

21 minutes ago, jbwent63 said:

I'm wondering if any of the stocks held by Allegheny at the last reporting date will be included in Berkshires 12-31-22 13-F report, or does everyone think they would have all been liquidated prior to the transaction?

 

If history is any guide, Buffett sold the Allegheny portfolio after the deal closed. 

[jbwent63]

I guess I was wondering if it might remain separate much like the NEAM portfolio has (a part of GenRe at purchase). We shall see, perhaps.

[ValueMaven]

Berkshire Hathaway Is Worth How Much? BRK Valuation Masterclass

 

 

[StevieV]

At almost 2 hours long, I'm not sure I'll get around to watching this.  However, if I skipped to the end correctly, it looks to me like they are putting "fair value" at $326/B share.

 

Seems reasonable enough.  I generally find the BRK "fair value" estimates too high, as in they give prices at which I'd never buy and at which I don't think you'd get a good return.  I think it is more useful to figure out a "buy price" as in buy at this price and you have a good chance of achieving a good risk-adjusted return. 

[jbwent63]

I've reviewed the 13G filed this afternoon by BRK on its ownership of Apple. It appears this filing includes both the NEAM and Alleghany ownership, for a total of 915,560,382, which is unchanged in total. It will be interesting to see if the media is able to figure this out, or will they report additional shares (20,424,207 at NEAM/GenRe and 333,856 at Alleghany and its subsidiaries).

[learner]

On 2/6/2023 at 4:14 AM, dealraker said:

Yes.  When Berkshire gets left behind by Mr. Market...it is a wave that slams into the beach.

 

I have a friend who plays this wave.  He goes in and out of some etf (can't actually remember which) vs in and out of Berkshire.  He has done absolutely grand for years in a tax deferred account getting in the high teens returns.

Hi @dealraker- do you know how your friend enters and exits BRK? I have tried to follow their buybacks or ~1.3x BV 

[dealraker]

15 minutes ago, learner said:

Hi @dealraker- do you know how your friend enters and exits BRK? I have tried to follow their buybacks or ~1.3x BV 

learner he said it was an S & P index.  

 

[learner]

9 minutes ago, dealraker said:

learner he said it was an S & P index.  

 

Great, thanks. Also, do you happen to know his criteria for entering and exiting BRK?

[dealraker]

5 minutes ago, learner said:

Great, thanks. Also, do you happen to know his criteria for entering and exiting BRK?

I'm not sure if he had rigid in/out thinking such as book value but surely that was part of the model.  I think it was more of the times...and we all from time to time know and discuss this in our online Berkshire forums...when Berkshire just got left behind in a meaningful way.  Then, again and as we all know this happens, there are very brief times when Berkshire goes up in parabolic (modest parabolic) fashion.  

 

In any event lerner, he'd mention it to me (he's in my investing club) and I ALWAYS agreed with his decisions.  I thought his thinking was absolutely logical.  I personally wasn't interested in doing it, but under a different umbrella of life I'd have been right there with him.

 

And on top of this while I'm not a trader I thought of this as one of the most logical "trading" things I'd ever been aware of.  The deal is now....the post Buffett years will come...and then it may or may not be a pattern any longer. 

[jbwent63]

As predicted, a Reuters report from earlier this afternoon:

 

On Apple, Buffett's company bought another 20.8 million shares, or $3.2 billion, bringing his stake to 5.8% in Apple, which Buffett considers more as a consumer products company, according to the filing. (Reporting by Carolina Mandl in New York; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Leslie Adler)

 

Nope....looking forward to either more 13G's (where you can see shares owned by pension funds, not on Berkshire's books) and then the 13-F...

[BiggieCheese]

Looks like the only buys this quarter were Apple, Paramount, and Louisiana Pacific

[Intelligent_Investor]

Apple was from Alleghany

[gfp]

It's kind of funny - Warren kept Allegheny's 333,856 AAPL shares and sold every single other equity in their portfolio.  "Don't sell the Apple"  

 

This was the Alleghany equity portfolio directly pre-merger

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/775368/000095012322010648/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

[Munger_Disciple]

Quick exit from TSM is a surprise. 

[maxthetrade]

18 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Quick exit from TSM is a surprise. 

 

Yep would love to know his thinking. Or was it a Ted/Todd position?

[Munger_Disciple]

4 minutes ago, maxthetrade said:

 

Yep would love to know his thinking. Or was it a Ted/Todd position?

 

It is Warren's. Too big to be Ted/Todd's.

[sleepydragon]

47 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Quick exit from TSM is a surprise. 

Yeah.

[Spekulatius]

TSM is the biggest headscratcher. He is also getting out of the ATVI arbitrage it seems.

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc

 

[RadMan24]

5 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Quick exit from TSM is a surprise. 

Well, he did the same with Oracle.