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what are you selling today?


muscleman

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Sold the last bit of the energy trade, already sold out of XOM and today of IMO. With oil in freefall i am pretty sure that the forecasts for most oil companies will be too rosy. Maybe i am too early but i think there will be plenty of time to load up cheap on these names again in 1-2 years for the next inflation leg. But need to see a real recession first. Bought these companies in march/april when oil hit new highs and the oil stocks were lagging. Now oil is 50$ cheaper and the stocks are near all time highs. 🤔

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Sold a part of SPRB after shooting up by 150% overnight. Was part of my NCAV basket and traded at 1/3 NCAV, there was a news today that it got 15 million in cash upfront for development of some drug? With that money NCAV should be north of 4$ which is the reason i kept the rest.

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1 hour ago, frommi said:

Sold a part of SPRB after shooting up by 150% overnight. Was part of my NCAV basket and traded at 1/3 NCAV, there was a news today that it got 15 million in cash upfront for development of some drug? With that money NCAV should be north of 4$ which is the reason i kept the rest.


When I first started investing around the GFC I bought shares of vanda pharmaceuticals since it was a net-net. Sold for a 50-100% gain to whoever had received leaked information only to have it spike 20 times in the following weeks. 
 

first of several ten+ baggers I missed out on in the aftermath of gfc selling too soon. 

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Sold $40 July calls on my BAM shares. Not getting a huge premium, but it pushes the dividend yield up to about 7% annually. I'm willing to let go of my BAM shares at $40 even with the short term capital gains since this would be essentially a 27+ multiple on forward earnings when competitors like Blackstone can be bought for a big discount. 

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On 1/10/2023 at 3:07 PM, Spekulatius said:

Sold IAC today - 15% loss. That Meredith purchase looks like a turd to me. Maybe I am giving up and selling too soon, wouldn't be the first time.

 

They have admitted that switching all of the Meredith publications to their digital platform didn't go as smoothly as they hoped, and they're obviously getting hit on advertising revenue.  But even if you put a fairly low multiple on Dotdash-Meredith, IAC still looks quite cheap to me and if anyone is ever interested in this type of company, I think now is the time to buy it when it's selling for significantly less than the sum of its parts, rather than at a premium to them.  [Says the current bagholder.]

Edited by KJP
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On 1/17/2023 at 12:32 PM, KJP said:

 

They have admitted that switching all of the Meredith publications to their digital platform didn't go as smoothly as they hoped, and they're obviously getting hit on advertising revenue.  But even if you put a fairly low multiple on Dotdash-Meredith, IAC still looks quite cheap to me and if anyone is ever interested in this type of company, I think now is the time to buy it when it's selling for significantly less than the sum of its parts, rather than at a premium to them.  [Says the current bagholder.]

Yes, you are absolutely correct that IAC looks cheap based on SOP. I do think that they have lately shown a lot of operational missteps. its not just Meredith but also with ANGI.

 

Some of these mistakes seem strategical as well. I question why they get involved in Meredith at all, this is something that even if it works, is probably not going to create a lot of value and an acquirer like ZD which does these type of asset repositioning for a living seems to be better suited.

 

With ANGI, they got over ambitious and intended to transform the ANGI/Homeadvisor marketing/ lead portal into a service portal and got nowhere. In the meantime, something like Thumbtack got traction and provides a much better customer experience imo.

 

Those are just two things that come to my mind and they don't have just to do with the weakening economy.

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I trimmed a little NFLX on the pop after earnings today.  It was in my Retirement account and I sold when it got back to green.  Still have the rest of it in my taxable account and despite the almost double from the bottom, I'll still about -15% on it because I tried to catch that falling knife.  

 

My better half complains that I'm late to everything, but when it comes to buying I seem to be early all the time. 

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Sold Live Nation (LYV) for a nice profit. My whole thesis is that it's a monopoly and it seems like politicians might be waking up to the fact. Yet still trading right at their average valuation (excluding covid and post-covid bubble) of about 1 times sales. I'm planning on staying away for a bit and hop back in if they get out unscathed of that self-inflicted mess.

 

  https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/24/arts/ticketmaster-taylor-swift

Edited by WayWardCloud
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sold out from KWEB, Prosus, Disney, AirBnB and Twillio earlier this week, they had a nice move up the past month.

Today I decreased my position in Meta (20%) and IAC by 35% (I still like the company, however I also think they made some mistakes and don't see much upside in the current economy) 

Finally, I closed out OXY, as I think that petrobas is a better risk/return where I opened a position a month or so ago. 

 

Cash level around 15%, 15% in bonds and 5% short (put options and calls in vix)  

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