what are you selling today?

[treasurehunt]

25 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

one for the books !!

 

Yeah, ended up being a good investment after years of stagnation early on. Now watch BYD go on to be a trillion dollar company. 

[villainx]

1 minute ago, treasurehunt said:

be a trillion

 

these days one trillion is small cap territory!

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Sold M. Thank you @Parsad!!!!! 

I'll plow that back into UMG, ABNB and AJG soonish.

 

Glad you waited longer than me!  Hope you did really well.  Cheers!

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Parsad  We made a bunch of money for foundations to give to worthy causes!!!!!! Risk capital funneled into good works. All invisible!!!!! 

Edited December 4, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Parsad]

11 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Parsad  We made a bunch of money for foundations to give to worthy causes!!!!!! Risk capital funneled into good works. All invisible!!!!! 

 

Good for you and the foundations!  Cheers!

[Luke]

Im selling Palantir and Nvidia short, more Palantir than Nvidia as Dr.Michael Burry did. Nvidia at 182.35 USD and Palantir at 181.64 USD

Edited December 7, 2025 by Luke

[RichardGibbons]

Wow, you must have views that diverge dramatically from analysts to be shorting Nvidia here.  It has a forward PE of 24, on the fiscal year that is starting in February.

[Luke]

20 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

Wow, you must have views that diverge dramatically from analysts to be shorting Nvidia here.  It has a forward PE of 24, on the fiscal year that is starting in February.

so they will make in earnings in 2026 what they currently have in revenues LTM? we will see how long hyperscalers buy without thinking   I think at current valuations end market demand is SEVERELY overestimated. the current pricing is way too low for the compute it takes and unsustainable. at the same time you have tons of LLM competition and smaller and more efficient LLMs that are free from china. OpenAI is at unreasonable valuations. The next generation of GPUs that is coming in faster and faster waves will have no place in data centers that need to be rebuilt to accomodate for the constant power draw...we are getting to a point in time where capex has to be lowered. then nvidia and the AI market will crash and i will exit the short position 

[Luke]

Once chatgpt goes to 50 USD a month for sustainable pricing or maybe 70 USD+ things will collapse. the US also has limits in power it can serve data centers with. Nuclear reactors take decades to build and the US is not china. The exponential growth that is priced in will hit limits and hyperscalers will not spend more and more of their cashflow with little to show for. all of it smells bad to me. Yes, maybe nvidia goes to 6T before it crashes but then i will increase my short position. We are at a level that is way too high for the longterm. 

[Spekulatius]

Trimmed some AMRZ. Seems fully valued.

[Marco Van Basten]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Trimmed some AMRZ. Seems fully valued.

Could you please share as to how you arrive at your valuation?  Thank you.  

[Spekulatius]

9 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Could you please share as to how you arrive at your valuation?  Thank you.  

Comps. I compare with Buzzi and GCC. I think business mix is a bit different but 11.5x EBITDA does not look that cheap for a building material company, even if I give them credit for under earning.

 

I trim in my tax deferred accounts only.

[John Hjorth]

Sold this morning :

 

North Media A/S [ NORTHM.CPH],

RTX A/S [RTX.CPH],

Jeudan A/S [JDAN.CPH],

SP Group A/S [SPG.CPH],

Vestas Wind Systems A/S [VWS.CPH],

Bavarian Nordic A/S [BAVA.CPH],

Solar A/S [SOLAR B.CPH],

Demant A/S [DEMANT.CPH],

Schouw & Co. A/S [SCHO.CPH],

H. Lundbeck A/S [HLUN A.CPH],

L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [LUND.B.STO],

Novonesis  A/S [NSIS B.CPH], &

Genmab A/S [GENMAB.CPH].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

[Tax selling in sis in law's taxable accounts.

 

John, the daytrader! ]

Edited December 19, 2025 by John Hjorth

[dealraker]

55 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Sold this morning :

 

North Media A/S [ NORTHM.CPH],

RTX A/S [RTX.CPH],

Jeudan A/S [JDAN.CPH],

SP Group A/S [SPG.CPH],

Vestas Wind Systems A/S [VWS.CPH],

Bavarian Nordic A/S [BAVA.CPH],

Solar A/S [SOLAR B.CPH],

Demant A/S [DEMANT.CPH],

Schouw & Co. A/S [SCHO.CPH],

H. Lundbeck A/S [HLUN A.CPH],

L. E. Lundbergföretagen AB [LUND.B.STO],

Novonesis  A/S [NSIS B.CPH], &

Genmab A/S [GENMAB.CPH].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

[Tax selling in sis in law's taxable accounts.

 

John, the daytrader! ]

Sold the Dolla General in my tax free account.   Quickie Charlie here...not a day trader but close.  The only thing more common in my area than the Dolla General stores is men canvasing their(s) and Walgreens parking lots asking patrons to go into the stores using their ID's (these men have been rejected of course) asking the clerks at the counter to buy Sudafed and other assorted drugs so they can make meth.  

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 ... John, the daytrader! ]

 

20 minutes ago, dealraker said:

...  Quickie Charlie here...not a day trader but close.  ...

 

Desperate times, desperate measures! 

 

 

[Saluki]

I sold a very small position I had in ISSC. It's up like 45% in the past 2 days, but I bought early so I got out at +23% for a few months. Not bad work if you can get it. Still interesting, but too much mental bandwidth and some larger positions are cheap now. 

 

 

[Eng12345]

Sold out of CNC today. There are still so many unanswered questions in the industry and with the valuation within 20% of where they were pre healthcare roll back I don't much care for the industry going forward.

 

Looks like a total of 30% gain across accounts. Though I certainly got overly excited on the trigger and began buying much too soon in early July right before it fell off the cliff. I have no explanation in hindsight for that other than itchy trigger fingers. Certainly, a good lesson for me in behavioral. 

 

Just glad to have gotten out of this one having made some money. 

Edited January 6 by Eng12345

[tnathan]

7 hours ago, Eng12345 said:

Sold out of CNC today. There are still so many unanswered questions in the industry and with the valuation within 20% of where they were pre healthcare roll back I don't much care for the industry going forward.

 

Looks like a total of 30% gain across accounts. Though I certainly got overly excited on the trigger and began buying much too soon in early July right before it fell off the cliff. I have no explanation in hindsight for that other than itchy trigger fingers. Certainly, a good lesson for me in behavioral. 

 

Just glad to have gotten out of this one having made some money. 

Vastly under-earning right now...look at the margins

[Eng12345]

11 minutes ago, tnathan said:

Vastly under-earning right now...look at the margins

Meh its a less than good business that will have political headwinds for at least the next decade. 

 

Prior to passage of the rollbacks it was trading at $55 and is now at $45. It was a nice swing trade sardine on the overreaction to the bill but beyond that meh. 

 

I'm not sure how you can say they are vastly under earning. I guess on the thesis that enrollment is the roughly the same with increased premiums? 

 

They also lost the Florida contract. That's going to clip revenue for a good 1.5% beginning in Q4. (though I don't think that's really /that/ material)

 

Happy to hear your thoughts either here or on the CNC thread.  

[dwy000]

Hedged out a good chunk of my JPM with a strangle.  Have held it way too long to actually sell it (massive tax hit) but its had a good run up and the downside definitely outweighs the upside here.

[KPO]

1 hour ago, Eng12345 said:

Meh its a less than good business that will have political headwinds for at least the next decade. 

 

Prior to passage of the rollbacks it was trading at $55 and is now at $45. It was a nice swing trade sardine on the overreaction to the bill but beyond that meh. 

 

I'm not sure how you can say they are vastly under earning. I guess on the thesis that enrollment is the roughly the same with increased premiums? 

 

They also lost the Florida contract. That's going to clip revenue for a good 1.5% beginning in Q4. (though I don't think that's really /that/ material)

 

Happy to hear your thoughts either here or on the CNC thread.  

Don’t feel bad. I sold half of mine today at a 68% short term gain. I viewed it as a trade as well. My only issue is I wasn’t smart enough to buy this one in a tax deferred account (something about letting Uncle Sam shoulder a third of the downside if it doesn’t work out). Oh well. 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, Eng12345 said:

Meh its a less than good business that will have political headwinds for at least the next decade. 

 

Prior to passage of the rollbacks it was trading at $55 and is now at $45. It was a nice swing trade sardine on the overreaction to the bill but beyond that meh. 

 

I'm not sure how you can say they are vastly under earning. I guess on the thesis that enrollment is the roughly the same with increased premiums? 

 

They also lost the Florida contract. That's going to clip revenue for a good 1.5% beginning in Q4. (though I don't think that's really /that/ material)

 

Happy to hear your thoughts either here or on the CNC thread.  

I won't question your decision to walk away here, but I agree CNC is underearning. In Florida, they walked away from high-acuity (intensive medical care) children's contract that has low margins. They are still Florida's broader medicaid managed-care. 

[Eng12345]

42 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I won't question your decision to walk away here, but I agree CNC is underearning. In Florida, they walked away from high-acuity (intensive medical care) children's contract that has low margins. They are still Florida's broader medicaid managed-care. 

No I'm happy to hear on why CNC is underearning compared to it's valuation. I agree from here it is an earnings story. 

 

At $44 and a 15X multiple (which I would ascribe as on the higher end) EPS would have to be roughly $3/share. Which is probably a bit above where they are earning now. 

 

Good chance rate increases will be offset by membership declines and continuous cost inflation/taking as well. But again I'm curious why you guys are so certain they are underearning. I get that we had an across the book increase of say ~20%. But how the 20% actually distills into earnings I'm unsure of over the next year. 

 

This was a rather large position for me (accidentally) but I took profits quite a bit on gut feel. Hell, I'm sure I'm wrong but want to hear the reasons before I see my loss and your gain in a few years. 

 

Watch next week as subsidies get reinstated lmao. 

 

Edited January 7 by Eng12345

[lnofeisone]

32 minutes ago, Eng12345 said:

No I'm happy to hear on why CNC is underearning compared to it's valuation. I agree from here it is an earnings story. 

 

At $44 and a 15X multiple (which I would ascribe as on the higher end) EPS would have to be roughly $3/share. Which is probably a bit above where they are earning now. 

 

Good chance rate increases will be offset by membership declines and continuous cost inflation/taking as well. But again I'm curious why you guys are so certain they are underearning. I get that we had an across the book increase of say ~20%. But how the 20% actually distills into earnings I'm unsure of over the next year. 

 

This was a rather large position for me (accidentally) but I took profits quite a bit on gut feel. Hell, I'm sure I'm wrong but want to hear the reasons before I see my loss and your gain in a few years. 

 

Watch next week as subsidies get reinstated lmao. 

 

My cost basis is around $40 as I had some poor timing buying this in the 50s and 60s. So I'm just above water. Having said that I think what you are seeing here is still "problem-EPS." 

 

2025 was low and you are seeing some serious repricing of about 20% across the book. These increases are coming through on a $160B revenue base while SG&A has already been cut. So if you think about them repairing their margin (through cost increases and walking away from low margin contracts like the FL one) I expect them to be closer to $5/year in earnings. 

 

This all assumes that none of the other things will work out, i.e., the stock today embeds a set of stressed assumptions around Medicaid policy, marketplace risk adjustment, IRA issues, etc. I don't think these will persist at the same intensity as they have been for the last 6 months especially as we enter re-election cycle.

 

Long way of saying - the stock is currently somewhat undervalued with a multitude of catalysts to make it go higher. 

[Eng12345]

I’ll digress from here but appreciate the thoughts and hope it works out for you guys.

 

The nice thing about the market is it isn’t zero sum.