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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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36 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide.

 

No clue. Great reads about the situation on Yetanothervalueblog, VIC (especially in the comments) and COBF but I haven't found a single bear case which is a bit concerning. We're either collectively missing something huge or we're going to double our money within a few months. Scratching my head a bit over how to size this one.

Edited by WayWardCloud
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42 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

Nice. I’m surprised the spread is still so wide.

SAVE is an interesting one. I sold a decent amount of 15 puts expiring in Oct (I expect these to expire worthless) and November. I hedged by buying Dec 10 puts. At this point, I don't think there will be a the verdict by 3rd week in November OR we get a deal. In Either case, I expect Nov 15 puts also to expire worthless. 

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2 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

SAVE is an interesting one. I sold a decent amount of 15 puts expiring in Oct (I expect these to expire worthless) and November. I hedged by buying Dec 10 puts. At this point, I don't think there will be a the verdict by 3rd week in November OR we get a deal. In Either case, I expect Nov 15 puts also to expire worthless. 

I have a smallish position and am thinking about rolling some of my ATVI proceeds here as I like to have one or two merger arb positions at any one time since the risk profile is usually disconnected from general market volatility.

 

I can’t come up with a reasonable market concentration argument for why this shouldn’t go through with the concessions they’ve made. Political pandering risk seems the main reason this gets shot down, meaning the public will generally be against it because SAVE’s unsustainable pricing model will be at risk, so politicians will fall in line with their constituents.

 

The other thing that holds me back on going big here is that I have zero interest in owning this if it doesn’t work out, which wasn’t the case with ATVI. 

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1 hour ago, KPO said:

I have a smallish position and am thinking about rolling some of my ATVI proceeds here as I like to have one or two merger arb positions at any one time since the risk profile is usually disconnected from general market volatility.

 

I can’t come up with a reasonable market concentration argument for why this shouldn’t go through with the concessions they’ve made. Political pandering risk seems the main reason this gets shot down, meaning the public will generally be against it because SAVE’s unsustainable pricing model will be at risk, so politicians will fall in line with their constituents.

 

The other thing that holds me back on going big here is that I have zero interest in owning this if it doesn’t work out, which wasn’t the case with ATVI. 

I agree here, though I have a hard time imagining constituents that use SAVE calling their congressman to impede the merger. I, too, have 0 interest in owning this but the premiums were insane a month ago so I put on a trade. On the "merger working out" side, I also have 2025 25/30 bull spread which I have in my Roth IRA. Incidentally, I used some funds from the sold puts to fund Roth IRA and buy the spread. If it works, out great. If it doesn't, I'm not going to worry. 

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17 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea I’ll confess boredom and @Mephistophelesmaking sensible arguments got me into the SAVE situation as well. 

 

Thanks for the shout out!

 

The wide spread is peculiar but we shouldn't assume the market knows all. There have been a number of large spread transactions recently that in hindsight seem obvious. Tenneco dipped to $15 in the summer of '22 with the deal set to close at $20 in the fall. Twitter was in the $30s a few months before closing at $54.

 

SAVE as a standalone assuming pre-COVID margins is a steal. Will business travel return to pre-COVID? It appears to be heading that way. If that happens, things should stabilize. The oligopolistic factors that got Buffett interested a few years ago are still there  Of course near term (recession, oil, engine issues) risks remain, but that's always the case. 

 

The high leverage is no good so I loaded up on puts, but then was able to make all my money back by selling near term calls. The puts are expensive but am banking on us getting an answer sooner rather than later. From everything I have seen, this judge is a fast decision maker.

Edited by Mephistopheles
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Picked up a few JOE shares today when it dipped below $50. I think with one more interest rate hike we may be able to buy in the mid $40s again. 

 

I'd add more but I'm using some of my available cash for my"snake swallowing a mouse" tax loss harvesting strategy. 

 

I take $10k and put it in a position with the biggest loss (BABA, over -50%) and hold for 30 days, then sell the higher cost basis shares and move that amount the next biggest loss (TV),  then keep doing it for the next biggest % loser. I have two more times I can do it before the end of the year for stocks that are down but still want to hold onto. That loss offsets gains, which is great because I feel like a piece of my soul dies every time I pay taxes that I could have legally avoided paying. 

 

 

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