petec Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 Serious question. Why are you all buying FFH now? What are you seeing that you couldn't see at lower prices 1, 2, and 3 years ago? I'm well aware of the bull case having followed it in detail for years, but the value doesn't see as strong here as it has been for several years. What am I missing? Is it just that the probability of the bull case developing is higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwoodman Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 minute ago, petec said: Serious question. Why are you all buying FFH now? What are you seeing that you couldn't see at lower prices 1, 2, and 3 years ago? I'm well aware of the bull case having followed it in detail for years, but the value doesn't see as strong here as it has been for several years. What am I missing? Is it just that the probability of the bull case developing is higher? For me it is visibility and while below “book’ value, a decent margin of safety. They are firing on the equity front so there is a little arbitrage there as it flows to book. My buys lately are only an increase of around 10% on a large position and are a rotation out of PE 30 names eg AAPL. I would be interested to know if anyone is doing a major change in capital allocation eg low to say 20% of their portfolio. If these are only minor adds that are being reported then the datum of “what you are buying” is low value but not worthless. What I will say is your recent comment about them buying positions consistent with MKL and BRK and your disappointment if they weren’t differentiating struck a chord and I have pondered it considerably. Thank-you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 1 hour ago, petec said: Serious question. Why are you all buying FFH now? What are you seeing that you couldn't see at lower prices 1, 2, and 3 years ago? I'm well aware of the bull case having followed it in detail for years, but the value doesn't see as strong here as it has been for several years. What am I missing? Is it just that the probability of the bull case developing is higher? Fairfax was not on my radar back then, i would have bought it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooky Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 On FFH, for me the universe of good opportunities has shrunk considerably since June - October 2022 when I was plowing funds into great companies but I still have excess capital / cash coming in the door that needs to find a home. FFH still seems pretty cheap compared to other options out there. My position sizing is still fairly small all things considered but I'm still learning about the company (thanks to all of the people on this board for their detailed analysis). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 6 minutes ago, Spooky said: On FFH, for me the universe of good opportunities has shrunk considerably since June - October 2022 when I was plowing funds into great companies but I still have excess capital / cash coming in the door that needs to find a home. FFH still seems pretty cheap compared to other options out there. My position sizing is still fairly small all things considered but I'm still learning about the company (thanks to all of the people on this board for their detailed analysis). THIS! I loved Google in the 80s, but at 120? JOE at 34 looks great to buy, at 54, not so much. VTS at 16 is a go, at 34 it's a NO. I've owned FFH since 2018 or 19 and I'd rather buy at 80% of book, but I don't have a lot of other choices, and if they are making $1.5 bln in the bond portfolio alone from rolling things over at higher interest rates, that is a huge tailwind for FFH. Among my high conviction, long term ideas, this is a good one. Some of the other cheaper stuff I'm buying are trading sardines. Some energy stuff still looks cheap, but I have a lot already. The only shares of FFH that I've sold are in my retirement account, which I threw into Fairfax India at 11. At 14, it's not as attractive. So making the best of the hands that are available, this is a pretty good bet for the medium-long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted July 20, 2023 Share Posted July 20, 2023 I bought a 5% position in BTI on Monday/Tuesday. Sold completely out of META. Top positions are FFH, GOOGL, BRK, DFIN, USB, ADSK, and NTDOY. I am at 20% cash right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Shifted some of Nintendo into Evolution. Evo now 4% of my PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted July 21, 2023 Share Posted July 21, 2023 Bought a starter in CHDN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueseek Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 Bought some Sesa spa. Some tixt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 22, 2023 Share Posted July 22, 2023 40 minutes ago, valueseek said: Bought some Sesa spa. Some tixt. @valueseek Very interesting company. Impressive track record. I put SESA on my watch list. Thx for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keegomaster Posted July 23, 2023 Share Posted July 23, 2023 Added (and plan to continue to add) to GOOGL on pullbacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 Added to BABA, added to Bitcoin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 24, 2023 Share Posted July 24, 2023 FRFHF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Buying the dip on RTX today. That said, the news with the engine issues does sound troublesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobro777 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 On 6/9/2023 at 10:26 AM, Gregmal said: Started some MMM. Going off today Good call, thanks for the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 FFH, Fairfax India, and a little BTI and TAYD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, brobro777 said: Going off today Good call, thanks for the idea Yea as much as I wanna buy it and put it away Im trading about 30% of the position cuz I do agree theres gonna be volatility with all the news around this one. But good start nonetheless. Its dirt cheap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: Buying the dip on RTX today. That said, the news with the engine issues does sound troublesome. It's tempting for sure, but who knows how long this will linger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brobro777 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yea as much as I wanna buy it and put it away Im trading about 30% of the position cuz I do agree theres gonna be volatility with all the news around this one. But good start nonetheless. Its dirt cheap. Good point, some judge could deny 3M's motion to dismiss and the stock drops 10% and then the stock recovers on a favorable ruling, up and down, up and down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 56 minutes ago, Castanza said: It's tempting for sure, but who knows how long this will linger It is going to linger but keep in mind that P&W is only a part of RTX business. There is the Raytheon defense business and avionics as well as the P&W defense business. I think they can ride this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 (edited) On 7/19/2023 at 12:34 PM, rkbabang said: No problem. It's interesting, I've never owned nothing but dividend reinvested shares for any of my positions before in my IRA. It gets the Total Gain percentage wrong. It says "0.00%" rather than "∞%" or just "n/a" or something. That's bizarre accounting. Generally the way it works is you pay taxes on the receipt of the dividend so the basis shouldn't be zero but rather the price per share at which the reinvestment occurred so you're not taxed twice - But, since it's an IRA and no taxes are paid anyways, perhaps they just don't track it and mark it at $0 to reflect that no taxes were paid on the receipt either? Edited July 25, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Spekulatius said: It is going to linger but keep in mind that P&W is only a part of RTX business. There is the Raytheon defense business and avionics as well as the P&W defense business. I think they can ride this out. Looking more and more like this will not be that big of a deal. No sign of it grounding any jets so far which is a big hurdle. Looking like an extra safety check on a few hundred engines (consider there are thousands of engines in operation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 14 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: That's bizarre accounting. Generally the way it works is you pay taxes on the receipt of the dividend so the basis shouldn't be zero but rather the price per share at which the reinvestment occurred so you're not taxed twice - But, since it's an IRA and no taxes are paid anyways, perhaps they just don't track it and mark it at $0 to reflect that no taxes were paid on the receipt either? Yes, it kind of does make sense for a retirement account where no taxes are owed. If you think about it it is the taxable accounts that don't make much sense other than for keeping track of taxes owed according to the US tax code. Those shares don't cost you anything, so why would they have a cost basis? Fidelity marks all dividend reinvested shares as cost basis $0 on all of my tax deferred accounts (IRA, Roth IRA, and 401k brokerage link accounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 Sold the last of my BRK in my retirement account and redeployed to FRFHF, FFXDF, TV and BTI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 48 minutes ago, Saluki said: Sold the last of my BRK in my retirement account and redeployed to FRFHF, FFXDF, TV and BTI. Big move for you no? Wasn't BRK your largest position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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