What are you buying today?

[PJH111]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

I have owned Itafos (IFOS.V) for a couple of years and buy more when it pulls back like now.

It is the cheapest thing I own at 2 times fcf. Yes, it is a fertilizer company but is a secular bet on the American

food supply chain becoming an area of national security. It's main asset is in Idaho. It is paying down debt rapidly with the gushing fcf, selling non core assets and has responsible and aligned owners in Castlelake.  We don't own much commodity related stuff except TPL but I like the odds on this.

https://itafos.com/

 

This is an interesting one. I looked at this earlier in the year but was concerned by the limited remaining life on their key asset. They tout the potential for expansion but wouldn't that come with substantial capex requirements and other development risks? 

[thepupil]

Kimco 4 1/8% of 2046 at $70.5 / 6.6% +250 

 

$7.5B of debt / $18B EV. LTV = ~40% on market. because buying debt at 70 cents, last dollar is at like 30% LTV. KIM has very long duration fixed debt and owns a bunch of grocery anchored strip centers that i think will be fine over the long term. my current yield of 5.9% is a decent carry and a get a fair bit of convexity/punch if long rates go down. 

 

I bought a HUGE 90 basis point position in these today. 

 

Fortune favors the bold. 

 

 

[Spooky]

Bought some more BAM

[Cod Liver Oil]

@PJH11 Good questions. The mine life extension should be filed within the next few weeks. I have not heard about any objections from Idaho but the chance of denial is non zero. If they get the extension, the stock probably goes up 20% the day of the announcement.  If not, it goes down by a third. I assign a 90% probability of success. Idaho is a red state with a big interest in mining. The feds are actively promoting domestic fertilizer production so I don't anticipate an issue. The cost of developing the new site is about $50mm which Itafos can fund from operations or sale of non core stuff. The existing mine has 3 or 4 years left; the new is supposed to be just as productive.

[dipod]

Sold $50 1 month out puts on CNQ yesterday for $1.62. Should bring cost basis down to $48.38 and provide a stable dividend yield of more than 5%.

[lnofeisone]

8 hours ago, Pelagic said:

ONEW. Been holding off on buying this for a while finally decided to grab some today.

Can you share the rationale and why ONEW over BC?

[Pelagic]

14 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Can you share the rationale and why ONEW over BC?

 

They're a bit different, retailer vs. manufacturer. Mainly the growth runway ONEW has available to it. They're executing well and have just under a 100 locations currently out of ~4,300 marine retailers so there's quite a bit of room to grow. And I can appreciate their strategy of letting dealerships retain some independence in terms of branding as opposed to MarineMax where a bad experience with one MarineMax can sour a customer to all locations. They also target higher end buyers in what's already a high end industry so in that sense the service revenue they take in at their dealership locations is meaningful and going to help reduce some of the cyclicality of boat sales. Couple that with experienced management and high insider ownership and I think there's a good chance to do well here.

 

There's definitely risk regarding higher rates, and used boats flooding the market from 20/21 era buyers finding they liked the idea of boating better than actually owning a boat. However, if the goal is rolling up mom and pop retailers who are looking for an exit, a slowdown in sales likely let's them make those acquisitions at more attractive prices. 

 

Some background on the retailer side of the industry, there's a partial paywall but what's available for free is quite good.

 

https://inpractise.com/articles/onewater-marine-and-boat-retailing

https://inpractise.com/articles/onewater-marine-boat-manufacturer-and-dealer-relationship

 

 

[lnofeisone]

@Pelagic - thank you. Added to my weekend reading. 

[dipod]

Bought back the $50 CNQ puts to close my position at a profit after the bump today.

[dealraker]

On 10/14/2022 at 6:03 PM, Dinar said:

Have you looked at how GE compares to Siemens Healthineers and Safran?  I think both are much cheaper.

I have bought several small amounts of Siemens starting from the price of $52 and below.

[Red Lion]

I managed to snag 10 contracts of 6/16/23 $5 CLPR CALL options for $1.90 which is their intrinsic value, I don't understand why someone took the other side of that trade. 

[Gregmal]

Started bam 

[thepupil]

Today, I purchased 912810SV1 , the 30 yr TIP issued in February 2021. It has fallen to 62% of par (par has grown 13% because of inflaiton). real rates have gone from -0.5% at the time of issuance to +1.8%. I like this bond because of the discount to par value provides a theoretical put in the event of deflation. if deflation occurs over the course of the bond, the bond will return 1.2%/year because TIPS are floored at their original par value. so the nominal return of this bond will be at least 1.2% /yr, even in a disastrous depression, so it has some of the same i-bond like characteristics of being both deflation and inflation hedge. unlike i-bonds, it wil lmake a  shit ton if real rates decline (if it immediately went to zero real yield, this would return 65%) and if real rates continue to rise it will lose lots of money. 

 

brings me to 17% bonds, and am buying more in 401k every month but taking a pause for now on bonds. About 90% long stocks, 17% long bonds. I guess that makes me a risk partiy investor since i'm levered long both. 

 

I also bought more PSH at a 36% discount to NAV. 

 

I used FRPH to fund both of the purchases. FRPH is great and has been my largest position all year. It's still a large position. one isn't supposed to cut winners but I think FRPH NAV has declined and it's gotten more expensive relative to alternatives. 

 

Edited October 24, 2022 by thepupil

[Gregmal]

FRPH when the market is tanking….I love you!

 

FRPH when the market is ripping….fuck you stupid stock. 
 

I tend to just ignore it but agree with what you did and have long fought the temptation to rotate in and out of it for similar reasons. 

[thepupil]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

FRPH when the market is tanking….I love you!

 

FRPH when the market is ripping….fuck you stupid stock. 
 

I tend to just ignore it but agree with what you did and have long fought the temptation to rotate in and out of it for similar reasons. 

i sold FRPH completely in 2020. what i bought drastically outperformed FRPH. I bought it back at higher prices than i sold. I think complete exit was probably a mistake last time / a little too cute. but on the margin owning stuff that holds up in downturns should be monetized (in my opinion). I have sold half my NEN this year as its up 15% and all real estate stuff is in the shitter. 

 

now where i'm potentially going wrong is that I've generally used proceeds to buy stuff with lower long term return potential (bonds and shit) than FRPH and NEN. I haven't really used it to buy more aggressive stuff, so I'm being a bit defensive, but not like crawl in a cave and don't take risk defensive.

 

i don't know what the hell is going to happen and am trying to prepare the portfolio for a wide range of scenarios. i should probably be trimming my energy royalties...but those distro's yo...

Edited October 24, 2022 by thepupil

[Red Lion]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Started bam 

 

Nice entry price I think, especially with the upcoming spinoff which I should unlock a lot of value by having the market put a value on the asset manager, especially at this price. 

[Canalyst]

Have been adding VNQI to my non-taxable account. Portfolio is heavily weighted to Japan with some (~13%) exposure to HK real estate with the rest in developed Europe and UK. It's inverse correlation with the weakening Yen has shot up during the Yen's collapse, and I bought it because a) I am partial to REITs and b) it seemed like a reasonably levered way to play the potential for a dollar reversal. Is this the right way generally to think about international RE? If your thesis is that foreign currencies will at some point strengthen, but still face inflation, is RE a better way to get international exposure into your portfolio? 

[lnofeisone]

Bought a NOV 23/25 diagonal for net credit of 0.01. Nov is reporting earnings this week and I'm expecting reaction similar to SLB. 

[thowed]

18 hours ago, thepupil said:

i should probably be trimming my energy royalties...but those distro's yo...

 

Is this for fear of Oil collapse in a hard landing?  Or just because of the heady gains you've made?

 

I need to look at the MLPs again as apparently tax is changing again for non-US people on 1/1/23.  That I am reluctant is perhaps a reflection that I have fallen too much for DMLP (I just can't find anything I like as much) though a 'Horizon Kinetics Basket' of the C-Corps & Canadians would probably do OK, if not quite a well.

[Red Lion]

Added starter positions in AGNC/P and RITM/C. Not much of an expert on preferred stock, all I know is that every time the market crashes I see preferred stock that looks attractive and then they usually seem to trade back near to par far quicker than equity markets recover. Maybe this time is different with interest rates, but these are fixed to floating preferred, so they still seem pretty attractive to me. 

[thepupil]

33 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Is this for fear of Oil collapse in a hard landing?  Or just because of the heady gains you've made?

 

I need to look at the MLPs again as apparently tax is changing again for non-US people on 1/1/23.  That I am reluctant is perhaps a reflection that I have fallen too much for DMLP (I just can't find anything I like as much) though a 'Horizon Kinetics Basket' of the C-Corps & Canadians would probably do OK, if not quite a well.

both i guess. I mean it's more just that I view my royalties as a hedge / "allocation" as opposed to super high returning awesome investments to make 3x+ my money  over a short time period (which is what happened), so I think to some extent, I've "overearned" and energy is now 15% of my portfolio which probably a little bit more than i'd like. On the other hand they're unlevered and paying big distros which I'm not reinvesting and there are tax consequences of selling. 

[Dinar]

I bought Remy Cointreau today at E 154 after the negative reaction to H1 FY 2023 sales announcement + disappointing H2 FY 2023 forecast.  

[Red Lion]

Bought back puts that I just sold a few days ago on BABA and OWL. For BABA I paid $0.05 per contract, and I felt like it was worth leaving a nickel on the table than riding this out through Friday. 

 

For OWL my puts were expiring on January 20, I sold them on 10/21 for $0.40 and bought back today for $0.17. I felt like the risk:reward on this trade skewed quickly, and I don't feel like holding the position for the next 3 months just to potentially get 40% of the total profit. 

[Ross812]

Sold puts on OSTK at $25 and $23 and EBAY at $38 expiring next week and two weeks. Added a little to google (to bring me back up to a 10% allocation). Switched from shares to ITM puts on CASH through earnings. 

[Castanza]

GOOG