changegonnacome Posted August 18, 2022 Posted August 18, 2022 Way OOM AAPL Puts March '23........stock practically back to ATH's, 30 P/E........juiciest M1 high volume products have been launched now Air, Pro 14...... 5G phone super-cycle kind of done with iPhone 12/13......5G hype is over and it was meh........end markets in Europe/China for new iPhone 14 are going to be very weak this winter.........think Apple has had a supercycle last two years across its phones/laptop portfolios triggered by M1/5G/WFH/Lockdowns/stimis.....going to have nightmare comps moving forward..October qtr possibly the last 'good one'........trading today at a ~3.8% FCF yield........then that damned discount rate is going to keep moving up!
sleepydragon Posted August 19, 2022 Posted August 19, 2022 Bought some PKX after being burned many years ago
Jaygo Posted August 22, 2022 Posted August 22, 2022 Bought some google, I give these guys a little over a grand a month and i am a microscopic company. I cant imagine ever stopping this advertising unless a far superior competitor comes up. Other than fuel this is my largest expense after labour. Figure i should start clawing it back, Own what you know kind of thing. This may be highly flawed reasoning but I like that they are not relying on China for their growth like starbucks and many other global American companies have been. Alos bought a bit of TJX and added more Aritzia too. I figure they are both great companies, well run and growing, with people going back to the office these guys should do ok short term, if not I dont really care as I want to own more long term.
E. Nashton Posted August 22, 2022 Posted August 22, 2022 Dream Unlimited // DRM.TO AUM growing nicely, shares being cancelled, trading around book but significantly understated (ie land held at cost).
Parsad Posted August 22, 2022 Posted August 22, 2022 On 8/20/2022 at 7:13 PM, lessthaniv said: Steaks and beers. It’s Saturday. Good man! If it wasn't steak, it would have to be ribs! What type of steak do you enjoy...T-bone, Ribeye, New York Strip, Sirloin, Filet...I start drooling when I think of any of them, but New York Strip's are my favorite. Cheers!
lessthaniv Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Parsad said: Good man! If it wasn't steak, it would have to be ribs! What type of steak do you enjoy...T-bone, Ribeye, New York Strip, Sirloin, Filet...I start drooling when I think of any of them, but New York Strip's are my favorite. Cheers! All of the above! Tomahawks or thick cut Rib eyes if I have to pick!
WFF Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 1658.hk PSBC, thank you discounting it further Mr. Market.
changegonnacome Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both
Castanza Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 1 minute ago, changegonnacome said: APPL Puts......lots of fund managers hiding out in APPL.......but the confidence termites are making their way up to even the mighty fruit......was gonna buy SPY puts....but from here I think APPL is a superior market hedge...higher P/E, higher beta, lower vol, COVID beneficiary so over earning in 2020/21.......tougher COVID comps moving forward.....APPL is moving up iPhone launch date to try to squeeze a week or two of iPhone sales into their fiscal 4th quarter....artificially moving launch dates up & trying to 'make the quarter' is a robbing Peter to pay Paul game......maybe they make 4th Qtr but fiscal 1st Qtr could be a disaster...buying Leaps to capture both Premiums don't look great on these
changegonnacome Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Castanza said: Premiums don't look great on these You think they're expensive? Relative to what I think is going to happen I consider them cheap.
Castanza Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: You think they're expensive? Relative to what I think is going to happen I consider them cheap. I agree with the thesis; makes sense and seems to be playing out. Some of the March OTM puts have IV around 40+. So not expensive but not really cheap either. Different strokes for different folks. Hope you crush it
Viking Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 Adding to FFH. US$505 is a great price. Continuing to lighten up on my oil holdings today… up 16-17%; single digit weighting now. Love the wicked volatility in energy stocks. Happy to take quick gains with my commodity holdings.
changegonnacome Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Castanza said: I agree with the thesis Yeah I'll mix it up with just some straight shorts of the underlying....I consider myself a good Apple bellweather.....I've switched my whole family setup over to M1's & 5G iphones over the last 18-24 months......I've no reason to upgrade to anything for a few years now....the products are great and will stay good enough for at least 4-5 years on the computing side and another 2+yrs on the phones.....my nerd friends are the same...AAPL is gonna hit an airpocket of demand i think on just pure COVID/product supercycle dynamics & then added to that just the macro in their end markets. Edited August 23, 2022 by changegonnacome
Gregmal Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 Yea I’ve had the same aapl trade on a few times and just come to the conclusion it’s a tough nut to crack and that there’s better stuff to play on the short side. Even if you hit you’re going to have to nail the sell/cover timing bc it will be first to rebound.
changegonnacome Posted August 23, 2022 Posted August 23, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yea I’ve had the same aapl trade on a few times and just come to the conclusion it’s a tough nut to crack and that there’s better stuff to play on the short side. Yeah timing might be a little difficult and why I'll mix with the underlying but for the first time in a long time with Fed funds where it is.....you get paid a little spread on shorts while you wait even with owing AAPL's dividend the spread is still good enough Edited August 23, 2022 by changegonnacome
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