What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

Added a little CTO. Always amusing how the brainiacs at these "institutional" firms can be so stupid. Yea...great time to liquidate your funds position; 3 days before Xmas, during blackout... LOL dopes

 

I was looking at this stock for some year end dislocations, but there isn’t much volume. I don’t think their last acquisition indicates that management is selective about where to put their money either. Shopping malls in Jacksonville ?

http://ir.ctlc.com/file/Index?KeyFile=401493134

 

The main driver right now, as you pointed out, is probably the volume. Any half observant investor sees that, yet Mr. Institution somehow just decided to blow out 250k+ shares in what seems to be a few days...genius. I wanted to double check my cynicism, but a look at the rest of the V3 portfolio was just as baffling and confirmed that these guys just have poor judgment. I am having a hard time reconciling the volumes, so perhaps the company took some of the shares privately, although Im almost positive theyre currently in a blackout, so not sure how that works. But what an idiot. They've been monsters repurchasing shares since Winters left and would have happily taken down those shares if this guy wasn't interested in packing up and going on vacation....I'm all for using 4% debt to buy as many shares $15+ below the low end of NAV.

 

The Jacksonville purchase isn't totally out of nowhere. They already owned several outparcels at St Johns from another deal. Simon owns the other half and its a very upscale retail corridor. I can live with it at a mid-high single digit cap rate and their track record in Florida, which is very good. I'd rather they stick to Florida than try to be heroes buying crap like Party City and Joanne's up in NY and MA...I also think the property serves other purposes; mainly I believe it will be mortgaged in order to retire the convertible note in early March. Getting rid of that poison pill is huge and basically puts the company in play. Either way, at a $280M m/c and a few upcoming catalysts, its one of the few things not nosebleed expensive right now I justify chucking money at a little bit.

 

So this obviously worked out on little basis other than just the stupidity of a "smart money institutional investor" guy dumping 5% of the shares inside of a few days...but on the subject of Jacksonville real estate, check out the attached flyer. I really dont get it. I would never in my wildest dreams pay this type of dollar for assets like this.....but plenty of people do.

 

Theres also stuff like this

 

https://wolferetailgroup.com/properties/7-eleven-4/

 

Pure insanity. But nevertheless compelling if you own a good chunk of this type of asset.

 

EDIT: OM appears to be blocked in attachment, but property can be viewed here.

https://www.crexi.com/properties/282906/florida-red-lobster?crexi_url_type=2&eblast_position=1&subtemplateId=15&templateId=50&utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=Retail_MarcusMillichap_VA_NC_IN_MO_MN_KY_OH_TX_CA_FL_IL_&utm_campaign=1_3_20_12_00

 

Red Lobster in Jacksonville- 5.5 cap

RL32218.pdf

[Lance]

RDS-B and XOM

 

 

Thanks

Lance

[chrispy]

OLLI and EVI

 

I've noticed OLLI is at a 52w low, and quite low over the past few years. Any additional thoughts you would like to share?

[longlake95]

DD - I'm channeling Spek

[Broeb22]

OLLI and EVI

 

I've noticed OLLI is at a 52w low, and quite low over the past few years. Any additional thoughts you would like to share?

 

I'm a novice retail investor buying into a founder-led business that just lost its founder suddenly. This probably ends badly but I'm betting that off-price retail has some staying power and that Ollie's will be able to achieve at least part of its growth plan to triple its store count. The stock isn't cheap today at low 20's multiple of 2020 P/E but if they can grow EPS at 15% per year then I should be able to earn about 15% per year. I also have benefited from OLLI being located in my town so I get to walk through there a lot and its usually pretty busy in an area with lots of competing retail options.

[Castanza]

$WMB

[Gregmal]

PCYO

[SafetyinNumbers]

I added to Arrow Exploration (AXL.V) in the last few days.

 

It’s a bit of a convoluted situation but it spun out of Canacol (CNE.TO) in the fall of 2018. CNE took back a note/cash and a kept a small equity stake while spinning out the rest to it’s shareholders. The cash raised by Arrow was through a private placement at US$1/share. Arrow was supposed to get a bank line soon after the spin but they did not get it done. The company finally began a strategic process in December 2019.

 

The data room opened last week and my understanding is that quite a few CAs have been signed (but I don’t know that for a fact). The company also filed for a shareholder meeting for March 19 and apparently reflects Stifel’s confidence that there is enough time to get a deal done and papered in February, in time for a March 19 vote. It should be noted that the company still hasn’t had an AGM for 2018 so they needed to have a meeting before the end of March anyway.

 

Stifel’s confidence makes sense to me. They helped AMER.L when it received a hostile bid from a French E&P last July and ended up selling to GPRK announced in November for a very big premium.

 

What's interesting about that deal was that there were multiple well funded interested parties (as disclosed in the background section of the scheme filing). So many that AMER.L asked for cash bids only. AMER.L has 4x the production of AXL.V and sold for 13x the EV or over 20x the market cap. AXL.V production is a bit heavier so it should get a discount but the current discount seems too big.

 

CNE has been exerting significant influence at the company despite their tiny equity stake and has even put its General Counsel as Chairman of AXL. This has made a lot of investors nervous. I think it opens up CNE to litigation if the equity is permanently impaired so the investment might be quite asymmetric. I think we’ll find out soon.

 

https://www.stifel.com/docs/pdf/canada/arrow-intro-letter.pdf

 

[Cardboard]

SPY puts June

[Spekulatius]

CRBP

 

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

 

It shouldn't be too difficult to raise money (they've already done some licensing deals - one with a Japanese major and they also got some funds from CF foundation). Their Ph 3 results for Lenabasum should most likely be great (their Ph2 data and recent hiring shows they are prepping for approval) - out in a few months. Stock is ripping. Up 60% since this above discussion. Funnily i discovered this stock from a podcast where a healthcare VC with a great track record was pounding the table on it like crazy.

 

I assume this  VC was Jeff  Arnold in “Angel Invest Boston” podcast. that’s a great podcast and I subscribed to it.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angel-invest-boston/id1180248689?i=1000442790546

[Ice77]

 

I assume this  VC was Jeff  Arnold in “Angel Invest Boston” podcast. that’s a great podcast and I subscribed to it.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angel-invest-boston/id1180248689?i=1000442790546

 

Yes that was Jeff Arnold. Good show.

[Castanza]

Got some CMCSA under $46

[Lance]

XOM

 

Thanks

Lance

[lnofeisone]

MPLX and WMB

[Agrippa07]

Added to XOM

[Spekulatius]

Over the past two days I trimmed IAU and bought IRM, MAC, MCY, ORI, TCO and WPC then sold TCO on a small increase.

 

Thanks

Lance

 

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA.

 

Added to my small starter holding on today’s Mr. markets hissy fit after the earnings release at $22 and below. Anyone know what this drop as about? I looked at the earnings numbers and they seemed fine to me. Anyways, it’s a relatively cheap stock and a decent business in today’s overpriced market. Book value is $20, so I buy this for 1.1x book. I have seen cheaper,  but also way more expensive. I used to follow the company, but it dropped of my radar after it took many years to work through the aftermath of the financial crisis.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

XOM

 

Thanks

Lance

 

Added to XOM

 

Over the last week, have been rolling out of 10% or so I've my Gazprom position to buy XOM with the proceeds.

 

Plan to continue to do so if OGZPY continues to significantly outperform.

[jgyetzer]

CMCSA

 

I am probably being overconfident, but the market seems to keep offering favorable opportunities to buy broadband providers based upon performance of other, lower margin segments (i.e. video)

[Castanza]

Starter position PBCT

[boilermaker75]

Been writing GILD puts, would like to acquire some with a basis < $63.

[Lance]

Wrote puts on GEO.

 

Thanks

Lance

[Guest eatliftinvestgolf]

Added to my WFC position.

[Lance]

DD, TCO and WMB

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

bought back some msgn

[Guest cherzeca]

AMC, BCS, AGN

 

I was looking at AMC $5 call 1/21/22 last price $2.  seems awfully cheap but cant pull trigger.  earnings CC end of February