Ive heard the argument, which seems most sound to me, is that those who can pass a bill in the senate and house are only worried about being elected by the citizens of their state. So, what would make them want to disrupt the status quo (jobs, tax revenue, etc) to their state at the cost of ruining a sector in their state and losing re-election? I therefore think the most likely outcome is the fed to say we dont care about this anymore, it is state by state, figure it out. Dont forget, these businesses were deemed essential during COVID, state budgets have been decimated, the terrible laws within the US have forced each state to go at it on their own, and therefore states will do whatever it takes to retain the jobs and tax revenue.
We are many, many years from Mexico/Colombia shipping weed into the US. Look at how ridiculous US laws are regarding cannabis, how little change is occurring despite 60-70% of americans believing it should be decriminalized, and now we think that south american countries which are looked down upon by the US will be able to import a previously schedule 1 drug!? It may happen but it is a long way out.
Lastly, the MSOs which have retail and cultivation within states are likely to have a dominant position where they are building operations. In california, and now NJ, less then 50% of counties allow for ANY cannabis dispensaries. Few communities will allow for cannabis stores on every block or shopping center. Therefore, those which have locations, have cultivation, have shoppers in the habit of visiting their stores will be in a commanding position. Additionally, with NJ going adult use there is now the problem of getting an industrial property to build out cultivation. These buildings are being used up by fullfilment centers and then of course you have the zoning regs described earlier. The ones with cultivation built out, TerrAscend for example, are going to print money for a minimum of 2 years while the whole state finally gets to feast on recreational cannabis.
This was pretty good from JW Asset Management (Jason Wild of TerrAscend):