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chrispy

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  1. Ive heard the argument, which seems most sound to me, is that those who can pass a bill in the senate and house are only worried about being elected by the citizens of their state. So, what would make them want to disrupt the status quo (jobs, tax revenue, etc) to their state at the cost of ruining a sector in their state and losing re-election? I therefore think the most likely outcome is the fed to say we dont care about this anymore, it is state by state, figure it out. Dont forget, these businesses were deemed essential during COVID, state budgets have been decimated, the terrible laws within the US have forced each state to go at it on their own, and therefore states will do whatever it takes to retain the jobs and tax revenue. We are many, many years from Mexico/Colombia shipping weed into the US. Look at how ridiculous US laws are regarding cannabis, how little change is occurring despite 60-70% of americans believing it should be decriminalized, and now we think that south american countries which are looked down upon by the US will be able to import a previously schedule 1 drug!? It may happen but it is a long way out. Lastly, the MSOs which have retail and cultivation within states are likely to have a dominant position where they are building operations. In california, and now NJ, less then 50% of counties allow for ANY cannabis dispensaries. Few communities will allow for cannabis stores on every block or shopping center. Therefore, those which have locations, have cultivation, have shoppers in the habit of visiting their stores will be in a commanding position. Additionally, with NJ going adult use there is now the problem of getting an industrial property to build out cultivation. These buildings are being used up by fullfilment centers and then of course you have the zoning regs described earlier. The ones with cultivation built out, TerrAscend for example, are going to print money for a minimum of 2 years while the whole state finally gets to feast on recreational cannabis. This was pretty good from JW Asset Management (Jason Wild of TerrAscend):
  2. Nice catch on Friday and thank you for sharing your discussions. The 4-5 percent gain on the Canadian exchange does not seem to fully reflect the transaction. Puts the share price right where it was a week ago... Will be interesting to see if shares will be available for FRFHF at a good price in the morning
  3. Based on what we learned from the most recent filings and call, I think that thought is probable as well
  4. So if we dont hear any news in the next few days than Prem did not sell shares, correct? Would we then expect to hear during the next quarterly call about any actions Fairfax did/did not take?
  5. In fact, John Chen will hit his compensation and can retire early without finishing the job. haha
  6. I wish there was some level of certainty on this mystery short position / I wish Fairfax would actually stop shorting.
  7. 31% in my managed accounts 40+% in Employer 401k Made the decision early on to put my entire 401k into cash as the markets were still slightly positive and the downside seemed tremendous if shut downs happened. Had a child on Mar 20th and the hospital at the time was the most eerie place I have ever spent time. Deserted and nothing but ominous talk of the virus on the way. No one was wearing masks at the time. Based on that, I am quite proud I was able to deploy all capital shortly after near the bottom. Bought higher quality companies so I could set it, forget it, and take care of my family and other life demands. What is amazing about 2020 is I could have easily had -10 to 10% returns and also could have had >70% returns. I have learned a tremendous amount during 2020 with regards to investing and businesses. We all saw an entire business cycle in 9 months. Thank you to everyone on this board for their contributions.
  8. AMT is now my 3rd largest position. Small positions in FROG, GOCO, GDRX
  9. As many people have years of experience following Fairfax, is this amount of insider purchases atypical?
  10. I have always been planning on buying a boat and predicted at the age I will be in 3 years is when the purchase is feasible and reasonable (exciting and depressing). This could coincide perfectly with the first or second Fall after covid restrictions are lifted and recent buyers realize they never use it and do not want to winterize it again
  11. AMT-near a low for the year if we exclude the few days in March
  12. The main issue is Prem said years ago they were done shorting and they were caught shorting again.
  13. Using Viking's spreadsheet it looks like ~3.7% increase to FRFHF with this 60% move in Blackberry - is that what you guys/gals are seeing?
  14. The business model is great and fair for all parties. I do not have time to research companies to the level he does, and would actually hate doing it. The information he provides is intellectually stimulating for me and has helped my investment process (so far). Due to the scale of the internet, he can do what he enjoys while making a decent living. I am happy he can make $200k doing this. My ROI on the subscription has been exceptional financially and intellectually. Win, win.
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