hillfronter83 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I bought more BMY CVR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 SPG Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 DAL Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artha158 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 VIIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I bought more BMY CVR. I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value. What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 IMBBY and VIXY Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I bought more BMY CVR. I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value. What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now. For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I bought more BMY CVR. I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value. What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now. For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here. My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hillfronter83 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 I bought more BMY CVR. I looked into this, it seems that the right implies a ~62% probably for each drug to approved, which is lower than the estimated probably. From that perspective, it seems like a good value. What tells me to hold this odd is the Fact that the terms of this CVR (all three drugs need to be approved at a certain date) makes it so easy to avoid a payment for BMY, which amounts to $6B total, if some articles are correct. They can just push through 2/3 of the most important drugs and get them approved as quickly as possible, then delay one until after the cutoff date and presto, they just saved themselves $6B. Doesn’t take a genius to think that this will cross somebodies mind at BMY’s management. They could be quite opportunistic about this depending on which hurdles will develop with any of the 3 drugs even if it’s not the plan right now. For sure the intentional delays are a risk. But I don't think they are a deal-breaker. Some good discussion in the comments here. My own view of how management in large corporate settings works, has over the years dimmed enough that I assume that if there is a possibility to game an outcome, it will be gamed in all likelihood. Don't disagree with risk from intentional delay. However in this case, they already filed NDA for ozanimod and its decision is due in a few months. Since CVR is tradable, i expect market'll react on ozanimod decision, which IMO is a high probability event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Bought back some recently trimmed CMCSA today. Down ~3.5% today, anyone knows the reason? Anyways, the stock is surprisingly cheap still, trades at <8.5x Y2020 EBITDA. once they reach their leverage target next year, they can resume stock buybacks again. Lots to like - management track record, low leverage, broadband, theme parks and humming along, Telemundo and CNBC gaining market share over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play. Wrote some HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 puts for $0.40 per share. Wrote some more HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 expiration puts and some 19.5-strike Dec 6 expiration puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Started a bit of CLXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SafetyinNumbers Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I bought some Arrow Exploration (AXL.V). It’s an oil producer in Colombia that emerged from reverse takeover / spin off from CNE.TO in November. Given it’s a micro cap spinoff there could be some irrational selling going on. Each Canacol share received .127 shares of AXL, so it’s a trivial amount for what is now a 35 cent stock. CNE shares trade at $4.40. CNE valued each AXL share at US$0.885 each at the time of the spin and it’s trading so it’s down about 70% from that level in less than 6 months. Perhaps they were optimistic in how they valued it but it certainly has taken a haircut now. Management owns 18% and cannot sell the majority shares for 18 months and the stock has to be above US$1.50. EV is less than C$30m with 2P NPV at C$125m and the company is producing 1500 boe/d now and guiding to exit at 3000 boe/d. It’s production is tied to Brent pricing so it looks cheap on traditional oil company metrics. I added a little more AXL.V today. I have been buying all of the way down so obviously my buying has not been predictive of future positive performance. Reported Q3 and announced plans to pursue a strategic alternatives process. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/11/28/1953814/0/en/Arrow-Exploration-Corp-Announces-Third-Quarter-2019-Financial-and-Operating-Results-and-Initiation-of-Strategic-Alternatives-Process.html#.XeB-cq5pVfM.twitter I guess we'll see if there is a different price for private assets vs public markets in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Got a smidge more of GRIF. Would buy more but it just doesnt seem like theres any to be had. Mainly it looks like shares are all dried up below $40. Heading into year end, with low floater, light volume, and other potential news, I like the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 SNC - after it was dumped from the MSCI world index last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Started a bit of CLXT Boom. Sold CLXT. Gonna look to chuck the funds into some boring real estate company as the march to safety continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Spek, you've traded DD and CTVA better than anyone that I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Wrote HPQ 19-strike Nov 22 expiration puts for $0.35 per share--a risk arbitrage play. Wrote some HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 puts for $0.40 per share. Wrote some more HPQ 19.5-strike Nov 29 expiration puts and some 19.5-strike Dec 6 expiration puts. Wrote HPQ 19.5-strike Dec 13 expiration puts, $0.41 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sleepydragon Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Spek, can you talk about what’s the reasoning for buying DD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Spek, can you talk about what’s the reasoning for buying DD? 3) reasons: 1) products with pricing power 2) cheaper than peers (MMM) 3) strong management (Breen with Tyco pedigree) willing to optimize shareholder value That said, it’s held back by weakish economy in the business it operates and tariff concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Also adding to CCU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Also adding to CCU. Why CCU? or why add now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Wrote puts on TPR, bought KMI and RDSb. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Added to DD and CTVA. Also adding to CCU. Why CCU? or why add now? Because it’s down 3.5% and it’s cheap. Even protesters like beer and get thirsty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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