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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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Another binary trade.

 

Vertex Energy - the company is doing 100% pivot from used motor oil refining to being a refinery producing renewable diesel. Shell is trying to become green and is selling an enormously profitable refinery in Mobile, Alabama. What does it mean for VTNR:

-Revenue today is 120M or so and it will go to about (VTNR-guided) 2.5B (you are reading this correctly) and 200M in gross profit for FY22. They just closed the purchase of the refinery.

-They are guiding to 3.5B in revenue and 400M gross profit for FY23

-They have offtake and supply agreements signed

-EV is about 700M once accounted for all new debt

-There is a 30% short interest in the stock

 

Options are insanely priced but 10/17.5 2023 vertical spread will cost you 1.10. 

 

Some references: https://www.accesswire.com/671855/Vertex-Energy-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Provides-Strategic-Update

 

 

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I sold short a very small position in TLT, and used the proceeds to buy  ITM, slightly OTM,  and very OTM. Very late to this trade, and I'm only dabbling in small amounts. If rates on the long term melt upward though the next two Fed meetings, this might provide a little green in a sea of red for my portfolio. 

Edited by RedLion
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Bought some TWTR this week. It seems so cheap relative to its usage.  Also a gamble that Musk doesn't bail and somehow multibags it. 

 

I think having your own satellite system combined with dominant social media could be a powerful combination.

 

If Musk bails you are only paying a 15% premium.  Evrn without him it could work out ok. 

Edited by no_free_lunch
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