winjitsu Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 A bit of asset allocation shifting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 QQQ puts. Triple top, all lower than preceding one. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity mybookie.ag A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Gregmal where did you bet on? Could not find a platform, though this could be based on state. In the late part of the night, I was seeing odds of 3-1 Trump on Betfair which was insane considering the commentary on the news on the mail in ballots. They've since reversed course, but clearly a missed trade opportunity mybookie.ag A few caveats...1) daily wire limit is only $2,500. 2) Its an offshore based operation so you effectively have no recourse should they try to screw you. The limits on $ in a way for me are to remind myself that obviously its still gambling(not best use of money) and also to only screw around with insignificant sums in the event there is an issue with #2. I've looked at some of the legal operations that have sprouted up in past few years but dont think they make a huge difference. I tried FanDuel but kept running into issues where they couldn't verify locations and wouldn't allow bets. I also dont gamble a lot. Maybe a half dozen events in the last 10-15 years. The name "mybookie" is also another reminder that it is gambling I think. Sounds like fun with small amounts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm25 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 QQQ puts. Triple top, all lower than preceding one. Cardboard What dates / prices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 QQQ puts. Triple top, all lower than preceding one. Cardboard I bought some December bear verticals here too. Not a lot but just in case the market decides to sell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Added to JBGS, VNO, ESRT.... I don't like seeing green in my portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Bought some Teva yesterday, results out today. Really cheap on a P/FCF basis, lots of noise around litigation. Should be in a place to return money to shareholders in 3 years time. Expanding margins, growth plus litigation settlement could see this triple in 3 years but there are obviously risks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ratiman Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Buying some Sandridge, the graveyard of oil and gas tourists. Results look good, all the debt is gone after the HQ sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Started some BKEPP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 SAP.to (now a large position) Sold BAM (up 12% in a week) and a few other smaller positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Not necessarily today (two days ago), but bought SEA in size after cutting my Shopify position by a quarter and the extra capital coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villainx Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Not necessarily today (two days ago), but bought SEA in size after cutting my Shopify position by a quarter and the extra capital coming in. That's SEA Limited, right? I was almost going to get in, except regular life busy work got in way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap. I didn't realize SE had earnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broeb22 Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 GDYN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueinvestor Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Yep! It's not a great price (valuation-wise) - trading at 110x next year's earnings without considering cash. Wish I bought more at 40-50x earnings, maybe I'll have a chance again! I have them at 129x EV/EBITDA (forward 12M). Is the 110x PE a CapIQ / Bloomberg estate? That looks cheap. I didn't realize SE had earnings. Not PE but rather owner’s earnings - how much cash flow can I sustainably take from the business over its lifetime? Optically it has no earnings but looking at the business it seems they are under earning. They can actually generate a profit this year, but I believe that they chose to invest in their moat. Which is about right, as they mentioned they want to “break even” by 2020. Here’s the unit economics. It takes $6 to acquire a customer. Customer orders on average 3.6 times per month and average spend per order is $16. Hence, customer orders $60 per month and if we assume take rate is 10% - they’re being paid back customer acquisition cost in little over a month. Why would you want to generate a profit now? Once they make a profit - I think the huge returns are too late, as it becomes a mature company. Only thing that destroys this is interest rates/deflation on a valuation basis, but I believe they can fund growth from their cash flow if they wanted, hence it’s a temporary problem. It’s similar to Zozo and other e-com in Japan where they did relatively well considering the economy they were operating in where it had deflation or as some call it - the lost decade. Since I always have more capital coming in - I can always average down whenever that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simba Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Thanks for clarifying the unit economics. Yup completely agree with you. By the time Fed raises, hopefully Shopee becomes a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arski Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Bought recently some TPL, EPM, EXPR, ALPC, UVE & CIH Everyone's thoughts are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 ZM, PTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Bought some SE. Hat tip to valueinvestor. You've definitely got a very unique approach and respectable track record with these sort of names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Park Aerospace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgyetzer Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 NTDOY, LBRDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Last week added to: ATCO, PCYO, RTX, BAC, WFC, INTC, and started new 3% position AAPL This morning started positions in ESRT, PGRE, VNO. Still cheap with the vaccine news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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