winjitsu

I think liquidity is the issue here, and the odd lot preference only runs to 99 shares, so not much of a "pump" available. Another thing that happens is the company may pull the tender if the stock price drops too low. But I'd definitely take ~30 minutes to read through the company history, history of past tenders, sketchiness of the business. This one definitely runs on the sketchier side, so I won't be participating.

https://oddlotarbitrage.com/blog/2026/04/15/robin-energy-ltd-rbne/

But I think this also means they have to pull funding to the US economy to focus on their own reconstruction. Some EPC and OG names set to benefit, but no more OpenAI / Claude / EA LBO funding.

https://rodalzmann.substack.com/p/coffee-money-from-the-casaastrophe?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true Quick look at two tender offers out right now (some tax hair on DCBO, especially for those outside Canada)

+1. There are probably like 5 of these per year and this one is on the low end of payouts but recent examples like MRP were around $700. On CMI/ATMU payout was 4k/lot unhedged and around 2k hedged. Also a decent signal for capital returns. SILA & TLN have been good longs.

Yeah Frontera (FEC.to) did the same thing. Helps to understand the motivation of the tender, like in Frontera's case the very large shareholder wanted to sell some shares but odd-lots took up too many of the shares so they scrapped the provision. I thought TTSH in December was going to cancel as well but they ended up do the reverse split and going into debt to fund the cash outs. Still, for DCBO, the largest shareholder is not selling and they've done this before so this one should be pretty safe. Happens to be my most listened to podcast last year, according to Spotify. Also love the show!

Not speaking about the Bloomberg podcast, but rather about the nice little niche area of the market that I'm sure many folks here have tried before. Generally it involves a company launching a tender offer with an "odd-lot" provision where they accept all the shares if you hold a smaller amount. I've shared a few through the years on the "what I'm buying" thread, but figured we should probably just split out something for some of the more interesting opportunities in the market. Some highlights over the past few years have been Sila, Talen Energy, Atmos Filtration, Milrose Properties, Kenvue etc. Generally, these offers are one per person per brokerage account, so the best way to optimize would be to do these tenders across multiple brokerages. For example, I generally run with around four to five brokers: IBKR, Schwab, Fidelity as the three cores ones, Robinhood and Etrade as additional but with extra fees and headaches. Note for Fidelity you need to call in, but for the others, there is a web UI. To source ideas, I generally follow the following sites: - https://www.specialsituationinvestments.com/ or https://oddlotarbitrage.com/blog/category/tender-offers-us/ or https://www.mymoneyblog.com/lennar-millrose-properties-odd-lot-tender.html - Run google alerts on "odd-lots" Right now, the one I'm tracking is DCBO (https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/docebo-launches-us60-million-share-buyback-through-substantial-issuer-bid) with a tender offer at $20.40 with odd lot preference for holders under 100 shares. So profit expected is 6.9% on 99 shares, or around $138, closing March 10th. Not a huge amount of money to be made, but there are several of these every year, and if you use multiple brokerage accounts like me, it adds up to a nice gift or two.

I don't want to hijack this conversation away from ideas, but we are already at the point where Claude Code / ChatGPT can make a dashboard in one sitting. Once upon a time, I was an analyst, and similarly, about 10 years ago, we were asked to see if we could move things off of Excel into a business intelligence platform like Tableau (some workbooks are taking five minutes to open). We reached out and got some quotes that probably totaled in the six figures, including implementation over several months and annual seat costs. How far we've come. I'm not predicting apocalypse, but I do think financial analysts are gonna be in a similar boat with software developers. Before an executive might ask, "Hey, can you rerun those numbers and tell me what the breakdown was by geography and cost?" And the FA would go back to their workbook and play with the data and change around the pivot tables and get back. But that actually can be done by AI in thirty seconds. We must work with different lawyers All my friends (mid-level) use AI, especially in legal drafting, proof-reading and help with emails (though of course, they then paste that into a word doc/outlook). I imagine the 1Ls have been using AI extensively over their studies. Proprietary formats like Word .doc actually do not play well with LLMs and .txt and .md files are much better, ditto .csv work better than .xlsx. I don't think it's much of a stretch to think in the future we're going to be working more with AI-centric formats than human-centric formats. Partner level, though, yeah, they're never gonna change. Side note: China has made the lift from Office to Kingsoft. It actually isn't that bad. All to say, I don't think the Office moat is unassailable and we're in for very interesting times this next decade.

Actually I think both are great examples of how you can move off these formats with AI. The Excel should have been a database or a SQL file in the first place. Before, it'd require some techy savvy and coding knowledge (or a developer/dba) to run the scripts to get the same info as a pivot table. Not user friendly, and we spawned a generation of financial analysts creating god-awful 100 tab, 10k row, vba heavy workbooks that get sent around in emails with names like q3_analysis_v12_final.xlsx But now with AI, you can do that very, very easily do it the right way with a DB + SQL/Python Scripts to a dashboard or pulled into excel. The world will be significant better off moving data off of offline worksheets. Ditto with the word doc, you can easily ask AI to create a table with before and after comparisons.

Those who like MAA/CPT should check our HR.UN in Canada. Should be selling their industrial portfolio something soon and will be a pure-play Sunbelt multi-family trading at ~6% cap. ALX seems cheap after the debt refinancing.

Have heard through the grape vine this is very much the case and he's converting to a FO.

You can likely do this w/ Claude Code now with the Chrome browser plugin, or with ChatGPT Atlas. AI coming to take our jobs

Thought this was interesting from Horizon Kinetics Q3 letter (https://horizonkinetics.com/app/uploads/Horizon-Kinetics-Q3-2025-Commentary-Final.pdf) Taken from a very good substack deep dive into a $MIAX, an exchange in Florida (https://ragingbullinvestments.substack.com/p/a-royalty-on-market-madness)

Fun little podcast on the history of Christmas and Santa Claus https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/319-heist-of-st-nicolas-the-medieval-mafia-who/id1639561921?i=1000742327068 In short: can thank the Dutch and the Norse God Odin

Yes should get cashed out tonight. I'm actually curious if one can buy today and get cashed out under the reverse split after the close. I'm not sure how it works with T+1 settlements. Chatgpt wasn't very helpful. Maybe someone knows out there, if so, can pick-up about 5 cents / share right now at 6.55.

https://oddlotarbitrage.com/tender-offer-tracker/ + https://www.specialsituationinvestments.com/ (paid) There are fewer and fewer of these every year it seems

Pretty easy odd lot tender up right now on TTSH. Shareholders w/ fewer than 3k shares will get cashed out for $6.60 vs current price of $6.46 Should close sometime this month, but no date announced. Already passed shareholder vote and you have the 2 largest shareholders and founding family all in alignment. A Peter Kamin classic playbook for though who follow him (CLWY)

I would say if you go through the list of all time highest return stocks, you'll probably end up with the list that started off really small. O'relly Autoparts, Autozone, BRK, Roper, Monster etc etc. Recently read through Santa Monica Partners Fund Letters and don't think any of his OTC stocks made it to mega cap, but there are a few that are mid cap. Great read and highly recommend it. BRK was OTC traded for a while, probably the only true one that made mega cap status In the same vein Leucadia National Bel Fuse BELFA/BELFB was OTC now Mid Cap Balchem was OTC now around $5bn mc Toys R US was trading OTC at one point in the 70s (httphttps://x.com/turtlebay_io/status/1867269217403515251?s=20) International Speedway did pretty well (https://www.joekraymond.com/racing-to-riches/) Ubiquiti started off as a small cap

Seems accurate. Bulltard (options trader), which is above Burry, has been on record stating he has a little >$1mm ARR. Still, I believe Burry could over-take Doomberg. Same theme an audience and doomerism always sells

https://blog.google/products/search/gemini-3-search-ai-mode/ Gemini 3 rolling out (though at the moment only to the $250 pro subscribers and those with API keys). Benchmarks look promising though again they are very selective by not comparing to Claude Opus and GPT 5.1 Thinking. Google's cash flow and custom TPUs could be the biggest difference that win them this race. Compared with Chat GPT 5.0 and 5.1 which have been throttling and trying to save on inference when possible.

Going to bring this one back. Burry is shutting down Scion and likely transitioning to a family office Was in the news recently for his PLTR puts (which at $9mm is something like 6% of his $150mm AUM). Launching something on the 25th?

Didn't realize Chris is on the board of Berkshire and Coke. Aum down from $90bn to $17bn since the 2000s when they tried doubled down on AIG during the 2007 crash

Not quite sure about the 3rd generation. I took a quick look at Morningstar for the Davis Funds and they seem to be mostly keeping up with the index but nothing special over the past 10 years https://www.morningstar.com/asset-management-companies/davis-BN000008K4/funds

Just finished reading this and loved the book. The elder Davis definitely did not shy away from leverage (50% levered yet somehow never faced a liquidation event) with an insane run in the 50s and 60s. Also, as the author points out, there is immense irony in the elder Davis using his wife's trust fund to start his investing, but being a complete ass to his children seeking to take away their trust funds. Also, the list of insurance companies that have dominated the last century simply does not change. Chubb, Aetna, AIG, Tokio Marine and Fire etc.

On the recent Meta / Blue Owl $30bn datacenter, I thought this tweet was very insightful. You have Meta moving to FCF break-even and even enlisting SPVs to build even further, with what I consider to be larger and larger off-balance sheet liabilities.