What are you buying today?

[hasilp89]

10 hours ago, kab60 said:

It's possible to be bullish particular oil equities while having no view on the underlying commodity. With options you have to be bullish the commodity AND get the timing right. 

 

I think the number one mistake investors make with commodity companies is that they're just a bet on the underlying commodity. If you have a low reserve life, current commodity prices are hugely important as to the value of said company.

 

If you have +30 years of reserve life - and no path dependency (as in no debt/no risk of BK or dilution etc) - current year commodity prices mean very little. But in a downturn like this, they all seem to trade the same (like hell!). Which I think is a great opportunity if you can extend your timeframe. But you have to be incredibly picky IMO, because most co's are run by awful management teams acting pro-cyclical, which means they're now scrambling to survive. Others are looking to go on the offensive.

I know. The original post referenced being bullish oil prices though. 

[Grafter]

Had a lowball at $1305 for Fairfax that finally hit.

[nsx5200]

Some SVXY.  Theres probably a better cheaper way to bet on VIX, but I'm too stupid to figure it out.  If anybody have a better idea, please share.  TIA.

[WayWardCloud]

To those above who bought / considered buying Visa, opinions on Visa vs. Mastercard?

 

Besides the high valuation, another thing keeping me from buying them is that they've been long term beneficiaries of the free world's trust in American institutions and that trend has now been shattered probably forever. The US is showing willingness to weaponize just about anything to extract concessions from allies which gives foreign countries an incentive to build and control their own systems for everything strategic (Should have been done in the first place IMO but governments are lazy and don't really care about sovereignty all that much, as long as being part of the empire was comfortable they didn't mind being vassals). For example there is a reluctance of Europe to buy US fighter jets because they come with U.S.-provided software updates, spare parts, and maintenance systems the government could decide to stop honoring. Same thing with satellite communications and SpaceX losing contracts. If you want to be the world leader in providing an infrastructure such as payments of internet cables/satelites you have to stay neutral with that service and make sure people forget they're riding on your system. It comes with the great advantage of accessing a huge TAM and having access to intelligence (10 years ago it was revealed the NSA had Angela Merkel's phone on tap for example) but you've got to play it cool and not make any waves. The second your payment systems are used to freeze assets or something akin to extortion sovereign countries realize they really need their own systems if they care about freedom at all. Visa/Mastercard's growth isn't going to come to a screeching halt overnight but long term I think the good old days for them and for SWIFT are over and they could very well lose some of their world wide market share.

 

TLDR : Visa was a major beneficiary of the US soft power strategy established post WW2 and current administration does not understand how invaluable that is and how long it took to build that trust.

Edited April 7, 2025 by WayWardCloud

[formthirteen]

10 minutes ago, WayWardCloud said:

Visa/Mastercard's growth isn't going to come to a screeching halt overnight but long term I think the good old days are over and they could very well lose some of their world wide market share.

 

What alternatives are there?

[nsx5200]

It's been a long time since I looked at Visa.  Held it since the Paypal fear a long time ago.  Both payment systems enjoy wide moats.  Network effect, toll booth, incentive vs cash, speed of payment, cut down on cash fraud, etc.  Lots of potential competitors to watch out for, including Apple, but none of them seem very serious yet.  Some good case studies for what it would take to displace/replace Visa/Mastercard/Amex are the payment systems in China.

 

Visa is big in the US, and Mastercard is big outside of the US.  Mastercard had a slightly higher growth rate because of that in the past.

 

Wouldn't mind adding/starting on either one at the right price.  It might be getting there.  Just need to wait for hints of recession to show up in the news from the effects of the fed layoffs in addition to the current tariff stuff, IMHO.  Please report back on the Visa thread if you find anything fun.  TIA

[WayWardCloud]

25 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

What alternatives are there?

I'm no expert but Europe has SEPA + a Digital Euro project, China has Ali Pay and WeChat Pay, working on digital Yuan and working with Russia and others to transact away from USD especially for energy... Don't you agree anyone who wants to remain truly sovereign will have to control their own payment system?

Edited April 7, 2025 by WayWardCloud

[brk64311]

Adding to SPGI. Reasonable valuation at 4%+ LTM free cash flow yield for a high quality business acting as toll road of capital market with moat/pricing power. Its peer MCO is also getting interesting, but I already have a high concentration in it.   

[bizaro86]

29 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

What alternatives are there?

 

Most countries have some sort of domestic payment rail that could be expanded. EG Interac in Canada, EFTpos in Australia, etc. You could have bilateral agreements between those instead of the current multilateral system through a US rail. 

 

The underlying business isn't impossible here - there's a reason Visa has 97% gross margins/67% operating margins...

Edited April 7, 2025 by bizaro86

[LC]

1 hour ago, Grafter said:

Had a lowball at $1305 for Fairfax that finally hit.

 

Nice. I picked up some shares a bit higher (1330). Giving some more room to average down...it is like limbo - how low can it go?

[dipod]

More SCHD.

[Eldad]

1 hour ago, WayWardCloud said:

To those above who bought / considered buying Visa, opinions on Visa vs. Mastercard?

 

Besides the high valuation, another thing keeping me from buying them is that they've been long term beneficiaries of the free world's trust in American institutions and that trend has now been shattered probably forever. The US is showing willingness to weaponize just about anything to extract concessions from allies which gives foreign countries an incentive to build and control their own systems for everything strategic (Should have been done in the first place IMO but governments are lazy and don't really care about sovereignty all that much, as long as being part of the empire was comfortable they didn't mind being vassals). For example there is a reluctance of Europe to buy US fighter jets because they come with U.S.-provided software updates, spare parts, and maintenance systems the government could decide to stop honoring. Same thing with satellite communications and SpaceX losing contracts. If you want to be the world leader in providing an infrastructure such as payments of internet cables/satelites you have to stay neutral with that service and make sure people forget they're riding on your system. It comes with the great advantage of accessing a huge TAM and having access to intelligence (10 years ago it was revealed the NSA had Angela Merkel's phone on tap for example) but you've got to play it cool and not make any waves. The second your payment systems are used to freeze assets or something akin to extortion sovereign countries realize they really need their own systems if they care about freedom at all. Visa/Mastercard's growth isn't going to come to a screeching halt overnight but long term I think the good old days for them and for SWIFT are over and they could very well lose some of their world wide market share.

 

TLDR : Visa was a major beneficiary of the US soft power strategy established post WW2 and current administration does not understand how invaluable that is and how long it took to build that trust.

I thought about this as well recently. What is the tailwind for US financial multinationals from being the reserve currency? Were there a bunch of British debt rating agencies and payment processors that used to rule world? 
 

I’m just getting a bad gut feeling  about all of this and am leaning towards deploying the rest of my cash in Europe and Canada. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

I'm no expert but Europe has SEPA + a Digital Euro project, China has Ali Pay and WeChat Pay, working on digital Yuan and working with Russia and others to transact away from USD especially for energy... Don't you agree anyone who wants to remain truly sovereign will have to control their own payment system?

PIX (Brazilian payment system) was considered by Italy.

I think it’s more likely that  the EU may require to VISA to run Europe as a separate legal subsidy for oral security reasons . Europe after all was independently run until Visa bought them out about 10 years ago. Visa would likely incur somewhat higher cost (I recall them taking out some cost when they integrated VISA Europe) but it might not be that big of a deal.

Edited April 8, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Spooky]

3 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

To those above who bought / considered buying Visa, opinions on Visa vs. Mastercard?

 

Besides the high valuation, another thing keeping me from buying them is that they've been long term beneficiaries of the free world's trust in American institutions and that trend has now been shattered probably forever. The US is showing willingness to weaponize just about anything to extract concessions from allies which gives foreign countries an incentive to build and control their own systems for everything strategic (Should have been done in the first place IMO but governments are lazy and don't really care about sovereignty all that much, as long as being part of the empire was comfortable they didn't mind being vassals). For example there is a reluctance of Europe to buy US fighter jets because they come with U.S.-provided software updates, spare parts, and maintenance systems the government could decide to stop honoring. Same thing with satellite communications and SpaceX losing contracts. If you want to be the world leader in providing an infrastructure such as payments of internet cables/satelites you have to stay neutral with that service and make sure people forget they're riding on your system. It comes with the great advantage of accessing a huge TAM and having access to intelligence (10 years ago it was revealed the NSA had Angela Merkel's phone on tap for example) but you've got to play it cool and not make any waves. The second your payment systems are used to freeze assets or something akin to extortion sovereign countries realize they really need their own systems if they care about freedom at all. Visa/Mastercard's growth isn't going to come to a screeching halt overnight but long term I think the good old days for them and for SWIFT are over and they could very well lose some of their world wide market share.

 

TLDR : Visa was a major beneficiary of the US soft power strategy established post WW2 and current administration does not understand how invaluable that is and how long it took to build that trust.

 

Thanks for your input. I agree this could be a risk. Especially for Amex specifically, where people shun all things American and Amex's brand even has "American" in it! I'm taking a long term view here in which I believe rationality will prevail over irrationality and the current protectionist policies will be abandoned in time - globalization and trade has brought so much prosperity over the last 80+ years. Over time the economy will grow and the volume of goods and services will grow and Amex can capture a slice of that. Also, Amex has such a good product / business - they offer higher perks and rewards so that people want their cards and then they charge merchants even more than the other companies and retailers feel the pressure to accept it. I'm in Canada and I have an Amex card, my spouse has one and a lot of my friends do as well.

 

When I looked recently Visa's P/E was 34 and MC's 39 so rather pricey still if the growth doesn't continue. Amex's P/E is at roughly 17-18x.

[Gamecock-YT]

I got filled on a share in early market trading of a small O&G company at $0.0025, the stock closed today for a total gain of 6500%. Guess good thing to put stink bids out in times of high volatility. 

[Dave86ch]

20 hours ago, Milu said:

Whats your current weighting in Bitcoin?

 

Almost one-third of my net worth.

[Milu]

1 hour ago, Dave86ch said:

 

Almost one-third of my net worth.

Nice that’s a big chunk. About 15% of net worth for me. Would like to get it up to maybe 20% over the next few months.

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

I got filled on a share in early market trading of a small O&G company at $0.0025, the stock closed today for a total gain of 6500%. Guess good thing to put stink bids out in times of high volatility. 

Wtf lol.  Was that even a real price?

[Gamecock-YT]

8 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Wtf lol.  Was that even a real price?

 

It is showing up on various finance sites as the 52 week low, so it seems to have registered but if you look at any site that shows trade flows it isn't registering that any trades were done at that low of a price. 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

It is showing up on various finance sites as the 52 week low, so it seems to have registered but if you look at any site that shows trade flows it isn't registering that any trades were done at that low of a price. 

I’m curious, what was your % port allocation?

[Gamecock-YT]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

I’m curious, what was your % port allocation?

 

Immaterial, I just use these 1 share purchases as price triggers to start taking money out of cash equivalent accounts to deploy into those companies. It looks like a total of 1,580 shares ended up trading at that price. So I guess someone either got a margin call or accidentally did a market order instead of a limit order. 

[Sweet]

 

4 minutes ago, Gamecock-YT said:

 

Immaterial, I just use these 1 share purchases as price triggers to start taking money out of cash equivalent accounts to deploy into those companies. It looks like a total of 1,580 shares ended up trading at that price. So I guess someone either got a margin call or accidentally did a market order instead of a limit order. 

Oh well, imagine if you got 1% of your port in.   Dam

[investmd]

Healthcare stocks that I'm dipping into. None have positive EBITDA and not "high quality" - all (except TDOC) have interesting novel technology that is based on transformational science with potential to be category defining companies in the future whose stock has been beaten down: 

 

Therapeutics using mRNA tech and gene editing tech: BNTX, MRNA & CRSP - all trading at close to save level as cash on hand

 

Diagnostics: Grail, Natera & Exact Sciences are interesting

 

Services: TDOC - only global telehealth service, >90M annual visitors, integrated within health systems as opposed to just being outside of health system - probably no rush to buy. 

[formthirteen]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

PIX (Brazilian payment system) was considered by Italy.

 

The Economist published an article on PIX recently:

 

Quote

Brazil’s government-run payments system has become dominant
Pix has spiced up Brazil’s fusty banking sector, but it gives the central bank a worrying amount of power

 

https://archive.is/A6jeC

 

PIX will always be one government policy away from failure:
 

Quote

In January Brazil’s federal tax agency announced that it would require all firms handling Pix transactions to disclose those worth more than 5,000 reais.

 

[lnofeisone]

5 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

 

The Economist published an article on PIX recently:

 

 

https://archive.is/A6jeC

 

PIX will always be one government policy away from failure:
 

 

I own STNE and PIX is obviously a competitor. I think PIX has done such a fantastic job growing the pie. Sure, there will be some challenges with it being tied to Brazilian gov't but the system has helped so many who wouldn't bank otherwise. I true example of how gov't can incubate innovation to help citizens. The next step is spinning this out as a private enterprise but who knows if they know how to do that.