investmd

While I do subscribe to Claude and Perplexity, they can not access the website - guess I tried using simple prompting as opposed to coding...hmmm...

I rewatched the video of Lauren Templeton talk starting at 4hr 3mins mark and took away the following highlights from her presentation on FFH: Extraordinary to compound at 18%+ CAGR for 4 decades: FFH track record since 1985 would put it in top 1% of all US listed companies and #7 overall: She makes a comparison that what FFH has achieved today is akin to what BRK achieved around 2000 - since that time BRK has been a 10x. Will FFH be a 10x over next 25 yrs? She highlights that FFH is a collection of businesses built to compound Finally, audience asks a q re portfolio allocation in her own fund. She doesn't answer directly, but online her fund has approx 12% of AUM in FFH - decent sized position for sure. Interesting q from the audience member might have been if she has a max cap on the allocation or they are willing to let it run Here is the talk again:

+1 Templeton Bottom

Video on topic often discussed here on COBF : Is FFH today a young BRK? Lauren Templeton is a current member of Board of Directors at FFH, Founder of Templeton and Phillips Mgmt and great niece of John Templeton. She gave a talk last week in Omaha where she made a strong case for investing in FFH based on data showing why FFH today is where BRK was 30 years ago. Her talk was part of ValueX BRK. For those that want to watch, her talk starts at 4hr, 3mins mark of the video. The presentation as well as Q&A lasts 15mins. I didn't have any obvious push backs to Lauren Templeton's argument. Curious if anyone here has a contrarian view to hers or questions any of her data points.

@Marco Van Basten the reference to mean reversion was in refernce to performance of S&P500 over next decade as opposed to performance of Giverny Fund. I think earnings of portfolio companies with the Fund have continued to compound at an average of 13%/yr.

The TV series Beast in Me is very good. Eight episodes of suspense. One series. An author writing a biography about a psychotic individual who is alive and cooperating with the author... A completely different style that was also v. good was Drops of God - on Apple TV - a billionaire dies and leaves entire fortune to one of 2 people who have to blind taste wine and come up with which wine they are drinking. Set in France and Japan.

Agree. V. solid long term record of compounding at approximately 13%. Rochon has slowly and consistently built a great firm over a long period of time without much uproar. Fee structure is also fair - no performance fee - charges 1% management fee. 2025 Letter shows: the Global Portfolio has underperformed a blended index (not just S&P500) in 3 of the past 5 years and 5 of the past 10yrs The US Portfolio has underperformed the S&P500 in 4 of the past 5 years and in 8 of the past 10 years IMO, why Giverny may outperform the indexes over the next decade include: reversion to mean of earnings growth and price to equity ratio of a hyper concentrated S&P500 over the years, Giverny has expanded its team of money managers hunting for the optimal additions to the portfolio - Rochon is clearly the portfolio manager, but JP, David Poppe and Patrick Leger have added bench strength The thought process of acquiring truly great companies - Rochon talks of curating a museum - with a margin of safety is consistent. I've been in the fund for past few years (generally underperformed the S&P), but given the downtrend in 2026, thinking this might be a good time to add. Anyone have constructive ideas why it might not be a good time to get into Giverny?

Thanks for sharing. Hadn't listened to it previously. Some takeaways: risk is unquantifiable in advance or in retrospect possibility of loss is risk possibility of missing opportunities is also an important risk - risk of not taking enough risk risk of being forced to sell out at bottom as you take on more risk, the range of outcomes increases shouldn’t expect to make money just for taking risk and shouldn’t expect to make money without taking risk good investors have a superior sense for probability distributions do potential returns compensate for the risk in the left tail?

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/richer-wiser-happier/essential-truths-w-howard-marks-nima-shayegh-william-green/ All the Richer Wiser Happier podcasts have been v. good. This one stand out. Themes include: Future is a range of possibilities, Getting comfortable with uncertainties, If you don't have special expertise one likely doesn't have an edge - so stay humble, Understand the numbers but appreciate quality - you know quality when you see it...

+1

I'm going to be in Oxford Feb 26 to March 5 - if any COBF board members are in the area and would want to meet for coffee, pls dm me. I'll be travelling from Canada.

thanks for resurrecting this thread from 2009! I'm presuming @oldye is no longer on this Board, but what a great thread they started! I started buying in 2005 and adding each year. Holding through the 2010-2020 period was so so challenging. Thanks to @Viking & so many board members who helped me keep the trust.

Posters on previous pages had plenty of negative things to say about Guy/Aquamarine Fund...in contrast to positive sentiment expressed by some recently. Let's keep this thread in mind, next time we have crass/negative things to say about others whom we may not know deeply. Yes, we want to question, we want to avoid herd think and to express individual opinions but let's not cross a line that we might regret. There is so much good stuff on this Board, let's keep the positive sentiment going.

thank you so much @SharperDingaan

Thank you! Hiking Atlas Mountains seems like fun. Will look into it. Train ride also neat.

Planning a 1-2 week family trip to Morocco in April with wife, 21yo & 18 yo kids. Never been to Morocco or the continent of Africa. Anyone have insights as to good experiences in Morocco area? Want to experience the food, the culture, a different lifestyle than us in Canada. Wife wants to go to Marrakesh - so we'll be there but rest is quite open. I like to stay physically active on holidays and came across some biking holidays in Morocco but wife doesn't think biking in Morocco is a good idea. Does anyone have experience biking in Morocco?

How are Nasdaq and S&P500 flat on the year when large software companies are down 25%'ish ytd? Index is not being buoyed by Mag 7 as most are either flat or down a touch.

I'm presuming the AI narrative is the cause for drop in price of software companies ytd? Large cap companies like Microsoft, Salesforce, Adobe, Intuit all down approximately 25% in first 5 weeks of 2026. How come this board isn't writing more about buying at these prices? Pick individual stocks or buy a basket of software stocks that have been beaten down. Is there a separate thread on topic of blood bath in software stocks?

@Spekulatius: good q - My thesis is that cost of drugs paid by insurers doesn't come down as cost of production comes down because Big Pharma is an oligopoly that then has pricing power. Yes, Big Pharma are susceptible to regulators, but probably not susceptible to some startup that is going to undercut them on price, like one may see in other industries like auto or entertainment. Thus, my guess is decreasing costs of production will improve profitability for all Big Pharma - ie if a currently life saving drug for lung cancer by Pharma A costs $30K/year and Pharma B develops the next even better life saving drug at a lower price, the new drug is not coming to market at under $30K/yr. If the new drug is proven to be more efficacious it will come to market at same price or higher.

Hmmm... for luxury items they probably already have huge margins - that is the price they charge is way higher than the cost. Thus, saving a touch on marketing by using generative AI...my guess is doesn't move the needle. My guess is impact occurs where a)cost of goods are high and b)where cost of goods can be significantly affected by AI. V. v. rough back of the envelope numbers: Le's assume annual revenue for Big Pharma at approximately $65B and expenses of $50B'ish meaning $15B of annual profit. R&D makes up 20% of revenue ($13B), COGS 25% ($16B), SG&A 30% ($19B) AI could cut R&D costs by 20% (better prediction of which molecules will be successful drugs and decrease cost of trial costs), COGS by 10% (supply chain costs, improve yields) and maybe 10-15% across Sales, marketing and G&A resulting in maybe $6B of savings. Thus with same revenue of $65B, earnings can increase from $15B to $20B+, meaning 30% increase in earnings. Yes, one has to calculate increased cost of using AI tools etc....but back of envelope math. Downside is that AI doesn't decrease costs and one is left with stable, boring Big Pharma growing at 4-6% a year with 3-5% dividend yields. Is this a game where if one owns a basket of Big Pharma, Heads you win big and Tails you have little to lose?

If one agrees that ML is a technology that is here to stay and can dramatically improve efficiency, what industries are significantly positively impacted from an investment pov? I'd suggest that industries where COGS are v. high could benefit massively. They are unlikely to lower their price of goods sold but if high costs can be lowered, likely leads to higher margins, higher EPS and PE expansion. I'm thinking of Big Pharma - cost of bringing a new drug to market is approximately $2B. AI can help reduce costs by decreasing chance of failure through 2 main areas: Drug Development: Enrolling patients in clinical trials that have phenotype to respond positively to the drug - ie right patient at right time for the drug; simulating clinical trials and digital twins Drug Discovery: Generative AI to predict a novel target and design a molecule to fit the target, high throughput screening to identify optimal compounds for further screening, predicting toxicity So, Strategy 1 could be to buy a basket of Big Pharma - stable, international, dividend paying stocks and watch their EPS go up because costs go down. On the other hand, if we think AI can result in cost savings in many many verticals, Strategy 2 could be making a bullish argument to buy the S&P 500 index at a time when most value investors think the S&P 500 is "overpriced". Thoughts on Strategy 1 or 2?

I agree, we all think of BRK as a high quality stock with a tremendous track record. We have learnt a lot from Buffett and Munger. I'm wondering at today's market cap of >1 trillion dollars and with >$300B in cash, what are the rationales people in this group of value investors have for holding BRK? Is it for compounding over next one to two decades? Averaging out at 8%'ish? Is it for safety? - well diversified portfolio with better returns than fixed income growth with new strategy from new CEO? undervalued given quality of insurance business, and ability to invest float well? other? all of above? Thanks in advance for sharing, PS: I don't know yet how to create a poll in these threads

Re comments in this thread: yes - Aquamarine Fund's returns have been "average" when compared to S&P 500 for past 1-2 decades results look different if 2 decades ago someone chose the European index, or emerging markets or Canadian stocks as the "benchmark" Manager didn't take any fees unless compounded >6%/year from any previous high So, IMO, it's fair to say, manager provided fair monetary value. While the monetary returns have not hit it out of the park, the manager did provide a lot of "social compounding" as mentioned by @Longnose and has educated a lot of people on value investing and created a community around ValueX events that started in Switzerland and have now been replicated in places like Cyprus, Dubai, Colorado and maybe others.

wonder if whomever is @DiscountedTrashFlow have chosen to update the post. Guy has now publicly announced that he closed the fund because of recurrence of brain cancer