What are you buying today?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The reason for the run doesn’t matter. They hold a bunch of securities , some HTM and some MTM that are have a fair value below the price they are held on thr balance sheet. If there is a run in the bank, they need to sell the securities and realize the losses and this will deplete their capital.

 

I think SI is probably done here, I don’t think they will survive this. They also have liabilities from money laundering etc charges that are unknown and likely one of the causes of the run on the bank. FWIW, all these banks associated with crypto that have taken deposits have huge problems.

 

Thats where regulators need to look to make sure that crypto does not impact the banking system. These banks like SI are on-ramps to crypto ecosystem and with crypto deflating there is ann impact on those FDIC insured banks.

 

It possible. They will book a $700-800 million loss on the sale of securities to cover current liquidity needs which was announced today. Will definitely impact capital levels as will the new debt issue they also announced. 

 

Maybe they don't survive. But if they do, they're probably worth quite a bit more than $300 million/$12 share. 

 

They earned $1.28/share in the Q3 alone and we're growing fairly dramatically despite the crypto drawdown over the last 12-months and did so without incurring major credit losses despite Voyager, BlockFi, Celsius, Three Arrows, etc all being points of contagion pre-FTX. 

 

Seems like their underwriting and collateral procedures were fairly robust if not for the current run on the insured deposits which only occurred post-FTX since they had a relationship there in processing payments for FTX.

 

I expect there will be some strategic partner that might step in to stabilize. They'll take a pound of flesh and my calls will likely be money good, but of course it could all go to shit. 

 

Hence the OTM calls which risk WAY less capital on the front end. 

[Castanza]

GOOGL, TSM

[frommi]

S&P500 future puts.

and more Karelia Tobacco

Edited January 9, 2023 by frommi

[Luke]

On 1/6/2023 at 8:21 PM, Castanza said:

GOOGL, TSM

+1, also added Amazon

[Luke]

I opened a very small position on Nintendo, planning to add

[Jaygo]

Bought 10K of Visa and Google with proceeds from BRK sales. Brk is down to about 20% of my portfolio.

 

$3250.00 of both TC Energy and Aritzia with my TFSA contribution on Thursday. 

 

 

I need to find some more money now. !!  

[james22]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:15 AM, Cod Liver Oil said:

The brands which offer the best customer experience imo are Apple, Nintendo and Disney. They will survive and thrive under most economic conditions

 

Disney?? They aren't far from losing half the country.

[Cod Liver Oil]

IMO, all the Disney politics is just noise. All large companies need to balance their constituencies to keep business humming along.  If too many employees, customers, shareholders or regulators are not happy, the company adjusts. Chapek was especially tone deaf.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Cod Liver Oil

[DooDiligence]

59 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

IMO, all the Disney politics is just noise. All large companies need to balance their constituencies to keep business humming along.  If too many employees, customers, shareholders or regulators are not happy, the company adjusts. Chapek was especially tone deaf.

 

I saw an old Rodney Dangerfield bit the other day where he was poking fun at hippies. "You can't tell the boys from the girls these days", yada, yada, yada.

 

Social change is always occurring and people are constantly discomfited by it. Meanwhile, Disney keeps rolling along.

 

Rowan and Martins Laugh-In lampooned all the same issues that we hear about today. The names have changed but the issues are the same.

 

People want to be entertained.

[Red Lion]

Bought back my $78 June BX puts for a nominal profit. I still think these offer a pretty good risk:reward, but since I wrote these I purchased enough stock to make BX a full position. With this purchase I currently purchased back all of my short put positions which were a nice source of profits over the second half of 2022. I have a big chunk of money in t-bills I expect to use in a real estate acquisition and renovation, but otherwise I'm now pretty well fully invested other than an employer match in my retirement sometime in the next couple months. 

[dipod]

TSLA $110 puts 9 months out

[Spekulatius]

Bought a bit of $HOPE today, the US-Korean focused bank brought up by @dealraker. I suppose it's down due to the CFO leaving. Paying about tangible book is a good bet here and it pays a decent dividend as well.

[james22]

3 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

People want to be entertained.

 

Well, yeah. Not preached to.

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought a bit of $HOPE today, the US-Korean focused bank brought up by @dealraker. I suppose it's down due to the CFO leaving. Paying about tangible book is a good bet here and it pays a decent dividend as well.

We, a group decision, had (the investment is within the builders supply) decided to go to an emerging market thing rather than HOPE.  But we've added to both Cathay and East West.  Haven't looked at HOPE in the last few days but will now.

[lnofeisone]

Added to BAM/BN. 

[Luke]

TSM, Alphabet. TSM December Sales still looks really good to me. 23.9 percent YoY growth. 

[Jaygo]

FND Floor and Decor. 1.5% position so just a nibble for now. This keeps me interested and should the thesis remain but the stock get cheaper I will add.

 

Its currently trading at 2x sales which is roughly the same as home depot while growing much much faster.

 

Its a fast growing store count play same as my Aritzia thesis.  Management expects to triple store count within a decade.

[Eng12345]

3 hours ago, Jaygo said:

FND Floor and Decor. 1.5% position so just a nibble for now. This keeps me interested and should the thesis remain but the stock get cheaper I will add.

 

Its currently trading at 2x sales which is roughly the same as home depot while growing much much faster.

 

It’s a fast growing store count play same as my Aritzia thesis.  Management expects to triple store count within a decade.

Business breakdowns had a good episode on this one but I haven’t had a chance to do more homework.

[Jaygo]

Thanks, I will have a listen

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:21 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

1/2024 $15 calls on Silvergate Bank

 

Probably not a sustainable rally, but feeling pretty good about this purchase so far.

 

Bought SPY @ 350 9/15/2023 puts today

 

VIX is low relative to recent history, S&P is simultaneously being rebuffed by the 200 DMA (@397) and the top of the downward channel it's traded in for the last 12 months (@406), RSI is short term overbought and setting up bearish divergence on the 1-year chart, and I think Fed continues to wreck equities with additional hikes.  

 

Trend has been lower lows, fundamentals are deteriorating, and Fed isn't pivoting yet. Seems like the perfect time to be buying protection while VIX is cheap. 

[bizaro86]

I sold some naked calls on BBBY today. Nothing extreme size wise, and they're well OTM. I think this short squeeze gets capped off because they'll issue ATM shares into it as soon as they are able, which will keep boosting supply of shares. 

 

It's a bit of a hedge on my position in the unsecured (which is underwater). Ideally they take in enough cash on the ATM that they make the upcoming coupon payment without filing.

 

Also @TwoCitiesCapitalthanks for the note on SI. I followed you into that one - so far so good, obviously.

[Saluki]

Bought a little more Fairfax India and some STNG on the dip.  

[Gregmal]

Hit a solid slug of MSGE Dec $40 calls last week or so. 

[Valuebo]

54 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Hit a solid slug of MSGE Dec $40 calls last week or so. 

 

I'd buy more as well if I didn't feel like they are going to hit us with yet another cost hike on The Sphere making this stock probably tumble to $40 again. I hold some.

[Gregmal]

December calls give you time for that and then the spinoff is included. I'm more concerned with a delay than cost overruns. Even another $300M is a rounding error against the NAV. However, having construction drag on into 2024+ would be a nightmare.