Blugolds Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Wrote BRKB puts, July 22 exp, 260 strike, over a buck. Edited July 14, 2022 by Blugolds11
Agrippa07 Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 added to IAC and Dis today. From Tuesday: new position in Oxy and added to Ishares energy etf.
Seoshin Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 On 7/12/2022 at 2:44 AM, ourkid8 said: Bought a starter position in BAM with the proceeds from RFP. May I ask whats your thesis with BAM?
Seoshin Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 Anyone buying MKL? It is currently trading at historical book value per share
Viking Posted July 14, 2022 Posted July 14, 2022 (edited) Canadian oil juniors: MEG, WCP, ERF, TVE Earlier today MEG was off 8%. Oil finished the day flat. Oil stocks are getting crushed and oil is… trading at $96. Oil companies are raking in the free cash flow. Moving forward more and more of the significant free cash flow will be going to share buybacks. And with the shares getting crushed that will be a very good use of cash. This is a very good set up for shareholders. Edited July 14, 2022 by Viking
ourkid8 Posted July 15, 2022 Posted July 15, 2022 9 hours ago, Seoshin said: May I ask whats your thesis with BAM? Look... (As Bruce Flatt says before every statement) 1. Significant amount of capital waiting to be deployed. The current market environment provides management an opportunity to take advantage of market dislocation. Here is one large acquisition they just announced today: https://www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-telekom-announces-175-bln-euro-sale-tower-business-2022-07-14/ 2. Uses 25-30% of it's own capital to invest alongside clients to ensure interests are aligned. This gives me some comfort they will be cautious to not overpay for acquisitions 3. Real estate: High quality spaces are highly sought after and rents are up ~30% pre-pandemic 4. Superstar management team with a goal to compound at 20% going forward 5. Macro view on inflation: When there is inflation, revenue increase greater than expenses and more drops to the bottom line and over time it compounds. Inflation is very positive for real assets. I can keep on going but BAM is a undervalued high quality company who owns core backbone infrastructure which can compound at high rates for decades. Its my favourite type of business to own. btw: I just added to my position earlier in the morning.
WFF Posted July 15, 2022 Posted July 15, 2022 bought me some 1658:hk under 5 HKD. Hopefully Mr. Market continues to discount the merchandise today
tnp20 Posted July 16, 2022 Posted July 16, 2022 @WFF Care to share your thesis on 1658.HK ? I am curious ....I kind of came across this today via a different route. I am looking at Ping An after a recent sell off and remembered some mention of Li Lu/Himalaya possibly owning it. I look at the 2021 Annual report for Ping An to see if he owned it but it does not show up, its possible that Ping An is so big that he is not a top 10 shareholder (usually they list only top 10 in the annual reports). However, he did get listed as a 6% holder on the Postal Savings bank of China annual report (2020 and 2021). He seems to have increased the stake slightly from 2020 to 2021 and ofcourse the recent slide has me curious. Is the slide purely due to this mortgage non-payment issues ? Its hard to believe such a huge drop over some $20M HKD exposure...would appreciate your thoughts.
WFF Posted July 17, 2022 Posted July 17, 2022 13 hours ago, tnp20 said: @WFF Care to share your thesis on 1658.HK ? I am curious ....I kind of came across this today via a different route. I am looking at Ping An after a recent sell off and remembered some mention of Li Lu/Himalaya possibly owning it. I look at the 2021 Annual report for Ping An to see if he owned it but it does not show up, its possible that Ping An is so big that he is not a top 10 shareholder (usually they list only top 10 in the annual reports). However, he did get listed as a 6% holder on the Postal Savings bank of China annual report (2020 and 2021). He seems to have increased the stake slightly from 2020 to 2021 and ofcourse the recent slide has me curious. Is the slide purely due to this mortgage non-payment issues ? Its hard to believe such a huge drop over some $20M HKD exposure...would appreciate your thoughts. The largest retail bank, with lowest cost of deposit with no legacy loan issue. It used to be a deposit bank that doesn’t make any loans, usually to support government infrastructure. The market that it service has a high moat, people that are getting wealthier would likely continue to bank with PSBC (because it is in lower tiers and it doesn’t make much sense to build a branch). The amount they make align with the big 4 banks, due to agency fees paid to the Postal Service. However, a clause should be activated in the next 12 months ( my estimate) to re-rate the agency fee downward, powering its earnings. The stock trades already at 5x P/E, about a 6% dividend, with higher loan provisions then it’s counterparts. All stack to the upside I think. The sell off consist mainly recession fears in China, the zero-covid policy is causing great economic harm and thus far there hasn’t been much relaxing of the policy. The second, is the housing/mortgage concerns that started last year, the fear is developers failing, and people not paying their mortgages. This for PSBC is overblown, their biggest loan is to the railway (which I believe is like 20-30%), the developers exposure is minimal and haven’t dug deeper into the mortgages but I venture these are related to unfinished homes by the developers not regular home mortgages. But since they don’t have big exposure to developers, I am deducing that exposure to unfinished homes are limited as well, they are usually done in conjunction, and are given special access to mortgages as part of their agreement with developers. In all, the bank is still trying to boost its lending, especially to the sannong and green initiatives as promoted by common prosperity. The declining environment might actually decrease overall risk for us as it goes on sale, but also for the bank, as they are underwriting for assets that are deflated.
tnp20 Posted July 17, 2022 Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) WFF, thanks for sharing the details. http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn-con/01658/HK6/NOW.1197458/all Seems the mortgage risk related to non-payment is very small....still I need to correct my earlier post ...its about US$20M exposure not HK$20M. From what I am reading the housing situation (outside the mortgage repayment issue) is stabilizing... https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/china-what-media-sentiments-tell-us-about-chinas-financial-vulnerabilities/ click on the Report(Pdf) But I think housing market will remain a drag over the balance of the year to growth.... Another negative is consumers have been deleveraging lately rather than getting more loans and this may be due to shocks from zero covid policies with consumers being conservative going forward in case full zero covid policy returns. The zero covid policy is transforming into Dynamic zero covid policy which is more akin to what Japan did and Japan had very low infection rates just by continual and mass testing but without a lock down. If track and trace and constant testing allows business operations to continue without too much disruption, and with policy support, the situation will be stable to improving though case numbers may go up for BA.5 variant in the short term. If there is a lock down, I see it as more regional and targeted like Macau lock down ...its more to stop the explosive growth rather than any covid going forward. They also have their own antibody and antiviral treatments now that are 80% effective in preventing deaths. Not using western Vaccines and Pfizer antivirals was a unnecessary face saving policy that wasted time whilst they waited for the chinese versions but we are there now. But its china and whatever stupid stuff Xi decides happens.... Edited July 17, 2022 by tnp20
Spekulatius Posted July 17, 2022 Posted July 17, 2022 (edited) I think a housing decline could be a bigger deal than it appears right now. The mortgage payment strike is just symptom and not the root cause of the disease. It have no idea where this goes. I agree that PSBC looks attractive here despite above, I think it’s a way better bet than Alibaba, if yiu feel inclined to invest in China.( I dont have a position). Edited July 17, 2022 by Spekulatius
lnofeisone Posted July 18, 2022 Posted July 18, 2022 Bought some DIS (add), JOE (add), MSGE (add), INTC (starter), and MU (starter).
Gregmal Posted July 18, 2022 Posted July 18, 2022 Been adding to HTL between 1.5-1.6 CDN last week or so
no_free_lunch Posted July 18, 2022 Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) Logistec $LGT-B.TO. Canadian based logistics operators with heavy port operations. Long history back to the 60's and share holders have done well for themselves. Trading very cheap right now despite their history. Results were strong, even throughout the pandemic. Not something I am an expert on but it feels like a Canadian value gem. Interested if anyone here knows them or has any opinions. Small float so you need to be patient to buy them and put in a reasonable limit order. Edited July 18, 2022 by no_free_lunch
CorpRaider Posted July 18, 2022 Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) GOOOOOOOG-EL [Heroically resists urge to make a down 95%/split joke] Edited July 18, 2022 by CorpRaider
Red Lion Posted July 19, 2022 Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) Bought back my 7/22 BX and KKR puts for a nice fast profit. Figured no reason to hold these through earnings release on Thursday for bx. Edited July 19, 2022 by RedLion
GordonGekko69 Posted July 20, 2022 Posted July 20, 2022 On 7/17/2022 at 4:28 PM, tnp20 said: WFF, thanks for sharing the details. http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn-con/01658/HK6/NOW.1197458/all Seems the mortgage risk related to non-payment is very small....still I need to correct my earlier post ...its about US$20M exposure not HK$20M. From what I am reading the housing situation (outside the mortgage repayment issue) is stabilizing... https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/china-what-media-sentiments-tell-us-about-chinas-financial-vulnerabilities/ click on the Report(Pdf) But I think housing market will remain a drag over the balance of the year to growth.... Another negative is consumers have been deleveraging lately rather than getting more loans and this may be due to shocks from zero covid policies with consumers being conservative going forward in case full zero covid policy returns. The zero covid policy is transforming into Dynamic zero covid policy which is more akin to what Japan did and Japan had very low infection rates just by continual and mass testing but without a lock down. If track and trace and constant testing allows business operations to continue without too much disruption, and with policy support, the situation will be stable to improving though case numbers may go up for BA.5 variant in the short term. If there is a lock down, I see it as more regional and targeted like Macau lock down ...its more to stop the explosive growth rather than any covid going forward. They also have their own antibody and antiviral treatments now that are 80% effective in preventing deaths. Not using western Vaccines and Pfizer antivirals was a unnecessary face saving policy that wasted time whilst they waited for the chinese versions but we are there now. But its china and whatever stupid stuff Xi decides happens....
Gregmal Posted July 21, 2022 Posted July 21, 2022 Adds to AIV, JOE, VRE. Watch those rates. In 2013 I bought my first property. It was a big deal apparently that at the time the 10 year surged to a whopping 3%. My mortgage rate was 4.25%. So….spreads have a long way to come in. Or they’re pricing in much higher 10 year already. Should they come back in…housing goes nuclear. So much for the whole bear case on housing which so far has been…drum roll….mortgage volume decreases, second tier assets see maybe 10% price declines, and overall prices continue set records while class A stuff was unaffected and demand still off the charts….once again, they cry wolf and it’s a nothing burger.
rolling Posted July 21, 2022 Posted July 21, 2022 (edited) Recently returned to US market: CRM LSXMA BRK-B GOOGL Initially I had also chosen META but today realized that I would rather have more GOOGL and traded one for the other. edit: A shares, not C shares. Edited July 21, 2022 by rolling
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now