What are you buying today?

[maplevalue]

MRG (TSX)

[matthew2129]

More ATCO plus a pinch of SVXY at the close to keep things spicy 

[Lance]

CLPR

 

Thanks

Lance

[CafeB]

On 11/29/2021 at 7:43 PM, KPO said:

I also bought FMX several times in March of 2020 and still hold it. I’d be interested in your thesis if you don’t mind sharing. 

Convenience stores can be good businesses and can be even better in developing markets, to the extent that they have greater "strategic importance" than they would have in developed markets--as elaborated by www.notboring.co/p/femsa .

 

Strong family ownership provides stewardship in a part of the world that I don't know much about.

[Gregmal]

CLF, CLPR, CLI and AIV

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, CafeB said:

Convenience stores can be good businesses and can be even better in developing markets, to the extent that they have greater "strategic importance" than they would have in developed markets--as elaborated by www.notboring.co/p/femsa .

 

Strong family ownership provides stewardship in a part of the world that I don't know much about.

how do you think about FMX valuation? Optically it does not look cheap and part of it is due to holding structure (47% KOF and ~14.8% Heineken ownership). The owners see very little of these cash flows.

[CafeB]

31 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

how do you think about FMX valuation?

The position is really only a placeholder. I am interested in learning more about investing in Mexico and Latin America.

 

For now I defer to Cook & Bynum [ https://www.cookandbynum.com/wp-content/uploads/Cook-Bynum-03.31.21-Semi-Annual-Report-FINAL.pdf ]: "Using current market prices/values for its Heineken and Coca-Cola FEMSA stakes (which are themselves modestly undervalued), FEMSA’s retail stub currently trades at 9x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBITDA and 16x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBIT. This is an attractive valuation for a retailer that is largely immune from e-commerce and has the potential to grow earnings well into the double digits for the next ten years at high returns on capital."

[NotSoWise]

I have pretty bad experience with LATAM countries via LILAK and TIGO, the extra growth potential does not offset extra risks IMO. Dont plan to invest there anymore (and countries they operate are above average for LATAM):

- you have political risks (Chile riots, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, etc), high inequality within societies

- in some countries you have currency risks (not pegged to USD)

- in some places you have significant climate risks - hurricanes, droughts, etc

- poor countries deal worse with: recessions, pandemics - the declines are much worse (e.g. CHTR was flat during peak pandemics or even grew, LILAK had some declines - prepaids, SMEs, etc)

- some corruption

- organized crime

 

So for me the "extras" and lower valuations do not compensate for much more risks which you dont have in USA/ EU.

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, CafeB said:

The position is really only a placeholder. I am interested in learning more about investing in Mexico and Latin America.

 

For now I defer to Cook & Bynum [ https://www.cookandbynum.com/wp-content/uploads/Cook-Bynum-03.31.21-Semi-Annual-Report-FINAL.pdf ]: "Using current market prices/values for its Heineken and Coca-Cola FEMSA stakes (which are themselves modestly undervalued), FEMSA’s retail stub currently trades at 9x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBITDA and 16x 2021 enterprise value-to-EBIT. This is an attractive valuation for a retailer that is largely immune from e-commerce and has the potential to grow earnings well into the double digits for the next ten years at high returns on capital."

 

16x EBIT is not cheap at all for Mexico imo. On top of that, I think the holdings of KOF and Heineken need to be discounted as it is deadwood in a sense. A 20% Holding discount at a minimum is appropriate for indirect stock holdings.

[KPO]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

16x EBIT is not cheap at all for Mexico imo. On top of that, I think the holdings of KOF and Heineken need to be discounted as it is deadwood in a sense. A 20% Holding discount at a minimum is appropriate for indirect stock holdings.

I’m showing about 5X TTM EBITDA for the remainder, and I believe KOF and Heineken are close to fair value currently. I view this as reasonably priced, but not cheap, exposure to Latam through a fairly steady business. It was a fair bit cheaper when I bought, but I’ll hold here for the geographic diversification. That said, I am scratching my head at the distribution acquisitions in the US, but this hasn’t yet been material to their business. I’ll continue to monitor though. 

[fareastwarriors]

CLPR and APTS 

MSGE too 

Edited December 2, 2021 by fareastwarriors

[WFF]

FRPH. Thanks for the sale Mr. Market

[backtothebeach]

A stupid little trade on BABA. "Poor man's Covered Call":

 

    BOT    BABA Jan20'23 100 CALL    32.80
    SLD    BABA Jan21'22 130 CALL    5.20

[backtothebeach]

BOMN @ 27.86

[Gregmal]

AAPL Puts 

[Williams406]

FRPH as well sub $54. The right types of assets, balance sheet, and management for my temperament. Second only to BRK in size for me.

[BG2008]

13 minutes ago, Williams406 said:

FRPH as well sub $54. The right types of assets, balance sheet, and management for my temperament. Second only to BRK in size for me.

 

Can we have a CoB meet up for FRPH next fall in DC. Free baseball game, free property tour, and there are lots of beer gardens 

[Williams406]

Just now, BG2008 said:

 

Can we have a CoB meet up for FRPH next fall in DC. Free baseball game, free property tour, and there are lots of beer gardens 

You had me at "free." And "baseball." And "beer." I would actually like to make a meet up in DC work.

[thepupil]

51 minutes ago, Williams406 said:

FRPH as well sub $54. The right types of assets, balance sheet, and management for my temperament. Second only to BRK in size for me.

 

Just let FRPH overtake it (via addition)

Think COBF bout to own a decent chunk of this float. 

[CorpRaider]

<Cat reading paper> I should buy some stocks.

[BG2008]

40 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

Just let FRPH overtake it (via addition)

Think COBF bout to own a decent chunk of this float. 

 

May just as well have a CoB rager at the Navy Yard next fall 

 

Bakers above the Buff Dog!  Wow! 

[Viking]

Stelco, Suncor and a smaller amount of RFP. 
 

Oil looks very interesting. I was listening to an analyst from JPM. He said very little new investment will be going into oil moving forward. The investors who are left in oil and gas are VERY RETURN FOCUSSED. And they want a high return on their investment. So we should see growing demand as the world learns to live with covid and limited new supply coming on stream. $100 oil in 2022 is not a crazy high number. 

[Dave86ch]

Added to 9988hk Alibaba

[drzola]

Cenovus maybe the better buy of the large caps viking.

[Spekulatius]

Added a bit to various positions - SWMAY, VNT, PSMT, PINS.