matthew2129

Aren't credit ratings explicitly just an assessment of the issuer's ability to pay contractual interest and principal when due? If they were rating "real" returns then shouldn't Berkshire's and Microsoft's bonds with coupons of <1% issued in 2020 be getting downgrades?

+1

The whole FTX debacle is just another prime example of why we need start bullying nerds again

I know that fridge, it is a fine fridge, but I would never pay over $45 for it personally

Aren't they explicitly not selling any and just allowing current holdings to runoff?

Hopefully for a while, though over the long term combined ratios have been strongly correlated to interest rates

Today's 4.08% intraday high on the 10yr yield felt an awful lot like the top

UMG starter position

Popping stocks, dropping yields and tight credit spreads didn't do much for inflation during the 2010's decade

Also unloaded some more ATCO to move into more compelling opps. Given how badly smoked most shipping comps have gotten since the original takeover offer was made, I'd be pretty shocked to see a raise at this point. Market price still a tiny bit above the offer price so who knows. Would probably be trading with a $9 handle today if not for the offer

JOE and MSGE adds

Ironic part is that Grantham was calling Nasdaq a "super bubble" in January 2021 while simultaneously being very bullish China and emerging markets. Since then, Nasdaq is almost exactly flat and China is down 50%. And now dude's taking a victory lap. Go figure.

0% inflation in July and real time CPI indicators suggesting we could have moderate deflation in August. Seems like a reasonable time for a bit of a pause . But Volcker fanboys still want to make us pay for the sins of our past and show inflation who's boss.

As seen on twitter:

Completely agree. 30 year fixed mortgage rates in the 5-6% range while the 30 year forward inflation expectation is at 2.2% is not cheap. Same goes for high yield in the 7-8% range while the 5 year forward inflation expectation is 2.3%. Think inflation expectations are wrong? Then go bet on breakevens. But comparing YoY trailing inflation to the current Fed Funds Rate is completely missing the point. Nobody buys groceries, gas or real estate at the Fed Funds Rate.