NotSoWise

Chinese ship did not go through the blockade - POTUS has balls. The blockade seems to work now. The blockade that is working, puts a lot of pressure on Iran. Time to eat my shoes...

Greg, you misrepresent the facts, below some explanation: 1. US blockade is a joke, because Chinese ships with Iran oil can go through. (Chinese not paying any fees to US...) 2. Iran blockade in SOH is working fine, as Arab oil cant go through via SOH. Ships cant go through unless they pay USD 2m fee. 3. Saudi Arabia sends its oil via pipeline only, to Red Sea - (but only Saudi because of pipeline, the rest of Arabs cant export at all via SOH). And Saudi A. is worried that Houthis will close the Red Sea or Iran damage the pipeline, which can happen if escalation. The source was not Twitter, but BBC, quite reliable source, unlike Twitter BS.

When Iran closed the SOH - all non-Iranian ships couldnt get through - those who tried were damaged or had to go back. Iran blockade was 100% working for non-Iranian ships. When US did blockade (on top of Iranian), allied ships could not get through (because of Iran), but Iranian linked could get through (Chinese, 80% of Iranian traffic). If 80%of Iranian linked ships are Chinese and US didnt want to take them out, then what sense was it to have a blockade - US blockade is simply a joke. The source was BBC - relatively objective, reliable source. My post is purely political - does not relate to any investment ideas. NA O&G clearly benefits, but since oil is a global commodity with globally set price, all the consumers and all the US industry that uses oil as raw materials pay higher price, which is to their detriment. Net, net is probably negative for all stakeholders in US. Risk/reward has to be weighted by probability. Reward was great, but at 5-10% success rate (all Trump advisors told him it is unlikely to happen), cost of risk was also high in my view but its probability was very high 90-95%. So from my perspective the risk/ reward weighted by probability was pretty bad. But I agree, if it was successful, US would control lots of oil, good negotiating point against China. Agree, Biden made the Russian invasion more likely. However, it was not possible to close the war in one day/ week/ month, by anybody, even by Trump. His promise to shut it down was presidential campaign marketing or stupidity (I think the former). He also promissed not to make wars and focus on US and here we come with Iran war...

Its overall big picture, Iran was just another piece of information that increased the probability of the above events. Not 100% reason behind them. (edited my post, I did not express myself clearly) As per the latest news, it is 4 ships now that have crossed the SOH/ US blockade. What a joke... Another interesting point is that US aircraft carrier G. Bush sails now to Iran going around south Africa. This route is few weeks longer - why not via Suez canal? Because of scared of Houthis... Strange times we live in.

Today two Chinese ships went via SOH through US blockade - they were asked by US Navy to stop - but didnt give a f...k about this stop request. US Navy did not chase them, did not take over these ships and did not shoot at them. With 80% of Iran's oil export going to China - this US blockade is clearly not working. The idea in theory was good, but in practice it could only work if US was ready to go to war with China, which is not. Can we call it a TACO? Wars are not about how many you kill or what you damage, they are about bending the will of the adversary, to make him do what you want (e.g. Venezuela). Iran situation is already called the worst decision in US foreign policy ever - even worse than Iraq war by Bush. In general, I am pro US, but this unfortunate event could result in increasing probability of more negative outcomes like Taiwan joining China (they dont want to be the next Ukraine), Baltic countries attacked by Russia over the next 3-4 years, etc.

I am happy for Don to have his ballroom, it is sweet.

I live in EU and was never concerned about Iran having nukes, just like with N Korea having nukes. Iran nukes is problem of Israel, not EU. I am only concerned about Russian conventional forces (142m Russians), but not at all about Russian nukes... As for bombing Arabs by Iran - why not? US bases are there and they support US bombings. Most people who are in the subject were expecting this along with blockade of SOH. It is a war. Most of wars are unpredictable, but this one was an exception, most of Trump advisors were against, but he did it anyway. Why not going against N. Korea first (they have nukes) vs Iran (had only uranium)?

If Chinese ships can go through with oil from Iran, than what sense has the US blockade - you would block oil to Japan or Australia then... (plus Africa, but nobody cares about Africa)

What you wrote means shooting to Chinese ships with Iranian oil - Do you think it is a good idea? Would US do it?

Agree, the big picture looks like you wrote. Also agree that lots of what Trump says is just noise, positioning him as unpredictable, etc. So also agree that we should not get too attached to what Trump says - which with him closing SOH could be just rhetoric - as it does not make much sense, but could be useful for some of his communication strategy.

Yes, Iran decides who goes through SOH, not US. So Iran controls 20% of global oil, it is a lot of power. Iran decided to continue its nuke program, US cant stop it. If Iran was weak, JD would come with agreement.

Rubio would come back with the same result. It was not about JD or incompetency. Both parties were so far apart that is was not possible to find a common ground.

Because of TACO there wont be a global depression. I am just questioning whether what POTUS said about blocking SOH (which is already blocked by Iran) has any sense. Also not saying that Iran will crush USA - it is not possible. I am just saying that POTUS is in shit up to his nose with this Iran war and has mostly bad options in front of him. Weak Iran can block the SOH and US mighty Navy (which is no.1) can do shit about it and stays far away from Iran because of safety reasons. Also, US could not defend fully its allies - lots of rockets went through and did significant damage to Arab industry. This tells a lot who has a weak hand in this particular conflict. Iran has such good geography that the only way to win here is to nuke it. Picking parts out of context and adding different meaning to what I wrote may seem like a logical contr argument, but it is not.

Not a forecast, just saying that with 20% less oil (and fertilizers), the world economy would not look the same as with 100% oil from before the crisis.

with no deal - how come? Iran didnt have any cards? - POTUS has this idea of blocking SOH. I am just wondering... - will US Navy sink Chinese ships with oil going through - if they didnt sink Russian ship with oil to Cuba - will US block ships with fuel to US allies - Japan, Korea, Philipines, Australia, India, Pakistan, etc - wont the Saudi pipeline to Red Sea be immediately shot at by Iran - what about Hutis blocking oil in Red Sea? - is POTUS ready for 1929 crisis or worse if 20% of global oil stops My bet is on TACO again... My understanding is that POTUS wants to put pressure on China to put pressure on Iran, but its not obvious it will work.