Gregmal Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 (edited) 27 minutes ago, LC said: What's the thinking? I agree it's looked cheap. Inflation + looking at crypto as the comp Cliffnotes answer: so much that can go right and not a whole lot I see can go wrong. Longer answer: money flow drives everything. people with cash and bonds will continue to get itchy and antsy as inflation becomes real and unavoidable. BTC and the like have shown people are fine with Kuppys project Zimbabwe toaster analogy. Gold at least has a few thousand years worth of human psychology backing its relevance as a store of value. Ive watched it for a while now and despite its poor performance, it does react well to inflation related data. Basically Bitcoin with erectile disfunction type trading though. To me it seems priced as though the expectation is that it will trade the way it has for the past decade. But then you look at other commodity related stuff. Nat gas, uranium, etc. The cycle of demand+speculators+predictable endings can be spectacular. So, something like the Jan 2024 $155 calls look good. IMO something has to give soon here and the next 12 months should let you know if the trade is good or not. Too much stuff in the space; iron ore or lumber for instance, the companies there are spring loaded and trading at 1-3x earnings because of the expectation this will dissipate but will have no choice to move soon if it doesnt. So your upside takes care of itself and if gold does 10% a year you basically double your money. You dont have think too hard to see a scenario where gold could double or do something nutty either. Gold has shown it can also do well in bad markets. So you have oh so many ways to win. Whereas downside wise? IDK, say it goes down 10% in the next 12 months you still have a good amount of time value on the options so there's some downside protection as well if you structure the trade right. Your skew is good and upside very levered. On top of this I'll disclose that historically I have absolutely hated gold and thought it was worthless. I still do kinda(as in Id much rather invest in other stuff), but the setup is definitely there if you connect the dots. Edited December 27, 2021 by Gregmal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Longnose Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Opened a starter position in OESX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/20/2021 at 6:27 PM, Spekulatius said: MSM looks a bit like a value trap to me. Gross profit has remained the same since 2016 and something starts to eat their relatively fat margins. I guess competition and transparency from online pricing is a problem for them and makes their business more competitive. Agreed. Don't they still have two HQ's? CEO seems like a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, kab60 said: Don't they still have two HQ's? CEO seems like a joke. Yes, Melville, NY (on Long Island) and Davidson, NC (outside Charlotte), the latter announced 6/2012 and opened 9/2013--presented as a matter of proximity to talent: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/msc-announces-grand-opening-of-co-headquarters-in-davidson-nc-225069772.html Would you be willing to elaborate on your impression of MSM CEO? I only know that he is a member of the family that controls the company. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lnofeisone Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 PTON starter paired with a sale of a covered call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I bought some Jan. 2023 $50 Strike KWEB calls. Betting on a rebound for Chinese Internet stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 hours ago, CafeB said: Yes, Melville, NY (on Long Island) and Davidson, NC (outside Charlotte), the latter announced 6/2012 and opened 9/2013--presented as a matter of proximity to talent: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/msc-announces-grand-opening-of-co-headquarters-in-davidson-nc-225069772.html Would you be willing to elaborate on your impression of MSM CEO? I only know that he is a member of the family that controls the company. Thank you Been following for a handful of years as I like distributors but have been very un-impressed with execution (they've had a couple of CFO's) and hated how mngmt always tried to talk performance up despite years of falling margins. I think they could really use an external CEO to come in and take a hard look at everything. Two HQ's seems excessive, not least if you partly compete with frugal folks like Fastenal. Proximity to talent sounds like an awful excuse. Probably convenient for the CEO is more like it. But yeah, don't follow very closely. Take a look once in a while and things just doesn't seem to get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Sold AVB , apartment REIT, as it has run up 60+% over the past year and I just can't make the argument for it now. Rolocated the funds to FRPH, so more real estate. See the board posts on it but in short it appears well managed and at least reasonably priced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 (edited) 1 share of HQI and SMLR (each). Edited January 3, 2022 by formthirteen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Hill International Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formthirteen Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 (edited) I bought back 9988. Let's hope Xi doesn't get too wild this time and that nothing related to 9988 upsets him or the CCP. I rate this stock as speculative because of the highly fragile egos and socialism. I also wonder why I haven't looked at the currency risk. Is there no such thing with HKD and China, maybe someone here knows? One china, one currency, long live the peg? Added to EGBN and parked some cash in BANX. Edited January 4, 2022 by formthirteen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Went on a buying spree today. No new positions, but added to: AIV $5 calls (2024) EPD MSGE SE SRUUF WMB BTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 PDD today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Added a bit to PINS and a starter in TWTR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlesMunger Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 More AIV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 On 12/20/2021 at 12:21 PM, CafeB said: AMBP -- beverage can pure-play -- significant growth investments with attractive returns AMBP -- added capacity "fully backed" by multi-year agreements with customers -- mix shift to speciality cans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 35 minutes ago, CafeB said: AMBP -- added capacity "fully backed" by multi-year agreements with customers -- mix shift to speciality cans Common or warrants? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave86ch Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Added to 9988hk (Alibaba) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, CafeB said: AMBP -- added capacity "fully backed" by multi-year agreements with customers -- mix shift to speciality cans Are you worried about the price of aluminum going significantly higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 PLBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur_dee Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Starter in Salesforce and Cardlytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 VICI and TPHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPO Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 hours ago, fareastwarriors said: VICI and TPHS Same on TPHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CafeB Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 8 hours ago, BG2008 said: Common or warrants? Common. I don't have experience investing in warrants. I would be interested in learning more about them. 5 hours ago, rkbabang said: Are you worried about the price of aluminum going significantly higher? Good question. Thanks. I've started a new topic for AMBP and included an answer given by management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrifty3000 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Bought a basket of beat up AF Chinese stocks over the last few days. Around 1% position each. Will check back on how they’re doing in 5 or 10 years: BABA PDD TCEHY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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