rkbabang Posted November 18, 2019 Posted November 18, 2019 WFCF (food / meat certification business), which finally showed some decent earnings and better operating metrics. I was following the stock for quite some time and liked the business, but wasn’t comfortable with valuation and execution until after the recent earnings report, which showed some promise. DD (bought back some shares again). I bought some more WFCF recently as well. Almost doubling my position and reducing my cost basis.
writser Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Buying CELG, selling BMY. Effectively buying the CVR @ $1.84, which was valued at $3.83 in May by BMY (link, page 10). The preliminary estimate of the fair value of the CVRs was determined by applying a probability weighting to the potential $9.00 per share payment reflecting the probability of achieving all three necessary approvals. The probability-weighted value was then discounted to present value using a credit risk-adjusted discount rate. As far as I know, all three legs are still 'on track'. According to the latest CELG 10Q: Ide-cel (bb2121): The BLA submission for ide-cel in 4L+ multiple myeloma is expected in the first half of 2020 Ozanimod: The U.S. FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for ozanimod for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) and set a PDUFA date of March 25, 2020 Liso-cel (JCAR017): The BLA submission for liso-cel in patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma after at least 2 prior therapies is on-track for the fourth quarter of 2019 One can do both legs on margin. Deal close expected tomorrow. No sure money, but a decent bet. Time to leverage up the account?!
chrispy Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Has anyone looked at ALRM? It has been hammered since past earnings call but has nice metrics. I am not sure how much something like Ring actually affects their business. Moving to small businesses now too. Stock has been dropping every day so I am just waiting to see a glimpse of it stopping.
LC Posted November 19, 2019 Posted November 19, 2019 Bought some ABS as a symbolic gesture, sold TAP a few weeks ago around 58. Breakeven sale price, made a few % from the dividends...and very happy to get it out of the portfolio.
no_free_lunch Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 Does anyone know how the $50 payout to Celgene is categorized as far as taxes? I assume it is not a dividend, is it return of capital?
lnofeisone Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 Does anyone know how the $50 payout to Celgene is categorized as far as taxes? I assume it is not a dividend, is it return of capital? It's a capital gain/loss.
writser Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 Buying CELG, selling BMY. Effectively buying the CVR @ $1.84, which was valued at $3.83 in May by BMY (link, page 10). The preliminary estimate of the fair value of the CVRs was determined by applying a probability weighting to the potential $9.00 per share payment reflecting the probability of achieving all three necessary approvals. The probability-weighted value was then discounted to present value using a credit risk-adjusted discount rate. As far as I know, all three legs are still 'on track'. According to the latest CELG 10Q: Ide-cel (bb2121): The BLA submission for ide-cel in 4L+ multiple myeloma is expected in the first half of 2020 Ozanimod: The U.S. FDA accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for ozanimod for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (RMS) and set a PDUFA date of March 25, 2020 Liso-cel (JCAR017): The BLA submission for liso-cel in patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma after at least 2 prior therapies is on-track for the fourth quarter of 2019 One can do both legs on margin. Deal close expected tomorrow. No sure money, but a decent bet. Time to leverage up the account?! I closed that position, bought BQBBV (the CVR on an when-issued basis). Much easier. Didn't know that security even existed (though it seems tradable only as of today).
SafetyinNumbers Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 I bought some Arrow Exploration (AXL.V). It’s an oil producer in Colombia that emerged from reverse takeover / spin off from CNE.TO in November. Given it’s a micro cap spinoff there could be some irrational selling going on. Each Canacol share received .127 shares of AXL, so it’s a trivial amount for what is now a 35 cent stock. CNE shares trade at $4.40. CNE valued each AXL share at US$0.885 each at the time of the spin and it’s trading so it’s down about 70% from that level in less than 6 months. Perhaps they were optimistic in how they valued it but it certainly has taken a haircut now. Management owns 18% and cannot sell the majority shares for 18 months and the stock has to be above US$1.50. EV is less than C$30m with 2P NPV at C$125m and the company is producing 1500 boe/d now and guiding to exit at 3000 boe/d. It’s production is tied to Brent pricing so it looks cheap on traditional oil company metrics. I added a little more AXL.V today. I have been buying all of the way down so obviously my buying has not been predictive of future positive performance.
jgyetzer Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 IAC. I think the uncertainty over how the spinoff will proceed has created pressure on the stock price.
Gregmal Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 Moderate adds to TPL, started DD today and just put another single family home under contract
Spekulatius Posted November 20, 2019 Posted November 20, 2019 Moderate adds to TPL, started DD today and just put another single family home under contract I also added some DD at $65 and change today. Had bought a 2nd lot a few days ago, but sold it immediately flat when the tape turned soft. It looks like this stock is going to see $63 again in short order, but you never know.
kab60 Posted November 21, 2019 Posted November 21, 2019 Some more Ulta yesterday (sold 25 pct. of ADS), St. James Place (LSE) and some more Cambria Automobiles the other day (this one is hard to accumulate...)
Spekulatius Posted November 21, 2019 Posted November 21, 2019 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.
Gregmal Posted November 21, 2019 Posted November 21, 2019 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others.
Gregmal Posted November 21, 2019 Posted November 21, 2019 Restarted a little HHC. Replacing a lot of my momo and hot potato stuff with good old boring right now.
Spekulatius Posted November 21, 2019 Posted November 21, 2019 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others. Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition.
Gregmal Posted November 22, 2019 Posted November 22, 2019 CRBP Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others. Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition. Tier 4 example http://www.teribuhl.com/2019/03/19/honigs-broker-dealer-laidlaw-target-of-fbi-investigation/ Good warning on CRBP https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245168-corbus-ties-suspect-investors-history-failed-clinical-trials-lenabasum I have a bunch of accounts at a lot of different places either personally or for those I oversee. So occasionally the dirty wringer produces "sales leads" which I end up on. No joke I had a fellow maybe 4 years ago call me unsolicitedly and hard selling me some options strategy on....Corbus. At like $8. A few days later in went down like 50%. I have nothing to add as to whether what the actual company is doing will bear fruit. But having been almost exclusively involved in seeking out and doing deep dives and short only candidates earlier in my career, I can tell you that many times, just using guilty by association with some of these names, is all you need to do(outside of securing a borrow and timing the short entry :P)
Spekulatius Posted November 22, 2019 Posted November 22, 2019 Moderate adds to TPL, started DD today and just put another single family home under contract I also added some DD at $65 and change today. Had bought a 2nd lot a few days ago, but sold it immediately flat when the tape turned soft. It looks like this stock is going to see $63 again in short order, but you never know. Added a bit more DD today. I also added for the umpteenth time MEGACPO.MX. Starting to get towards my max. Position size here.
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