President-Elect Trump trades

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Sign of the times. We are a banana republic.

[Junior R]

and it starts

 

Quote

TRUMP: AS ONE OF MY MANY FIRST EXECUTIVE ORDERS, I WILL SIGN ALL NECESSARY DOCUMENTS TO CHARGE MEXICO AND CANADA A 25% TARIFF ON ALL PRODUCTS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES

TRUMP SAYS TO ADD 10% TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS OVER DRUG INFLOW

CAD getting killed

Edited November 26 by Junior R

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 11/21/2024 at 6:44 PM, Spekulatius said:

Musk won’t last more than 6 months in this role, whatever it actually is.

 

This is what I'm thinking

 

On 11/22/2024 at 7:57 AM, Lazarus said:

Why wouldn't he last? This gives him power, which helps him in his business interests. He might not do much work personally, but he'll oversee a team following his instructions. He has an interest in deregulation and this role puts him in position to slash regulation. His companies are also highly dependent on government contracts and subsidies (both SpaceX and Tesla), so he wants to stay inside the power circle. 

 

Because he doesn't play well with others and you don't have to rewind very far to find a time when he despised Trump.

 

Also, running a government agency where you're not the absolute authority is probably going to be quite a bit different from running private enterprise where he was absolute authority. 

[Spekulatius]

DOGE has no authority its just a 2 person think tank. These type of constructs have been around many times before and so far none have made an impact. We will see if this one is different, but I think not.

Edited November 26 by Spekulatius

[Cod Liver Oil]

https://fortune.com/2024/11/24/elon-musk-f35-stealth-fighter-drones-pentagon-weapons-doge-lockheed/
 

I guess Musk is in charge of the Pentagon now.  @dealraker should we sell our defense companies?

Edited November 26 by Cod Liver Oil

[Gregmal]

They’ll identify waste, and then we ll start seeing these anonymous scumbag “whistleblowers” emerge under the guise of “protecting democracy” when really all it’s intended to do is keep the wasteful status quo. How many times do we need to see this?

[dwy000]

47 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

DOGE has no authority its just a 2 person think tank. These type of constructs have been around many times before and so far none have made an impact. We will see if this one is different, but I think not.

Not to mention that the 2 people despise each other and will seek to undermine each other at every step. 

[hasilp89]

20 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Not to mention that the 2 people despise each other and will seek to undermine each other at every step. 

What have you seen that says they despise each other?

[Blake Hampton]

Who better to pick a fight with than both of your next-door neighbors amirite

Edited November 26 by Blake Hampton

[dwy000]

52 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

What have you seen that says they despise each other?

I worked with people who know both of them.  Two of the biggest egos in Silicon Valley.  Count how many times you see them in the same room or standing near each other. 

[dealraker]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://fortune.com/2024/11/24/elon-musk-f35-stealth-fighter-drones-pentagon-weapons-doge-lockheed/
 

I guess Musk is in charge of the Pentagon now.  @dealraker should we sell our defense companies?

LOL...I sold three in my retirement account on the first tt run up - but I plan to trade that account a little.  I have all the big defense co's in my tax accounts, relatively small in % and prob will never sell them.

 

Of all places Musk could likely be superb with defense decisions.  But the red tape and endless friction...I see him lasting about one week.  His attention is sure to go elsewhere it seems to me.

 

Edited November 26 by dealraker

[mcliu]

I don't think we should dismiss Elon so quickly. He's known for doing the impossible. I hope he/DOGE succeeds.

 

The US and the world needs it as a blueprint for success.

 

It's not like the existing political and managerial class has any ideas on how to fix this deficit death spiral.

 

If fixing the US bureaucracy is harder than landing reusable rockets then maybe it is truly beyond saving.

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/why-real-estate-stocks-took-a-hit-as-developers-cheered-trump?srnd=homepage-europe

[Luke]

8 hours ago, Junior R said:

and it starts

 

CAD getting killed

Ironically, this is bad for international businesses based in the US but good for local businesses,exactly those guys also sponsor Trump, and international business sponsors democrats. The tariffs will be nice for local producers and push the domestic producers but other countries will react with tariffs themselves so businesses that rely on global scale will suffer. But IMO about time that these US mega caps reach their scale limit and have more local competition. A good day for local producers and a bad day for companies like Apple etc, they will receive tariffs themselves   Thoughts?

Edited November 26 by Luke

[Junior R]

2 hours ago, Luke said:

Ironically, this is bad for international businesses based in the US but good for local businesses,exactly those guys also sponsor Trump, and international business sponsors democrats. The tariffs will be nice for local producers and push the domestic producers but other countries will react with tariffs themselves so businesses that rely on global scale will suffer. But IMO about time that these US mega caps reach their scale limit and have more local competition. A good day for local producers and a bad day for companies like Apple etc, they will receive tariffs themselves   Thoughts?

I think this is same playbook as Trumps first term he Barks but doesn't mean that is what happens ...good opportunity each time he talks lol

[Spekulatius]

Might be time to get long the right kind of drugs since RFK shoots up Heroin, consumes ZYN (long $PM), Elon is a Ketamine junkie and probably tries all drugs and Trump itself is on Adderral or something similar.

 

Time to make Amerika high again.

[rogermunibond]

12 hours ago, dealraker said:

LOL...I sold three in my retirement account on the first tt run up - but I plan to trade that account a little.  I have all the big defense co's in my tax accounts, relatively small in % and prob will never sell them.

 

Of all places Musk could likely be superb with defense decisions.  But the red tape and endless friction...I see him lasting about one week.  His attention is sure to go elsewhere it seems to me.

 

 

Elon's not alone on DOD priorities.  Luckey and other SV folks are paying a lot of attention to Ukraine and Red Sea action.  It's laying out a very compelling case on next gen war fighting needs.

 

Suffice it to say that the direction is changing fast.

 

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Might be time to get long the right kind of drugs since RFK shoots up Heroin, consumes ZYN (long $PM), Elon is a Ketamine junkie and probably tries all drugs and Trump itself is on Adderral or something similar.

 

Time to make Amerika high again.

 

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

DOGE has no authority its just a 2 person think tank. These type of constructs have been around many times before and so far none have made an impact. We will see if this one is different, but I think not.

 

Reading this topic today is amost killing me! . I just asked my friend Google : 'doge meaning'

 

First :

Second :

 

Next, and third :

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

 

Elon's not alone on DOD priorities.  Luckey and other SV folks are paying a lot of attention to Ukraine and Red Sea action.  It's laying out a very compelling case on next gen war fighting needs.

 

Suffice it to say that the direction is changing fast.

 

I wonder about Anduril and how efficient they are run. They do a lot of acquisitions just like other contractors and allegedly have only about $1B in revenues (which are low margins defense) and presumably a $30B market cap.

 

A lot of their stuff doesn’t look that special - for example the Replicator drones have competition from several sources like AeroVironment and Teledyne and others.

[Spekulatius]

15 hours ago, Luke said:

Ironically, this is bad for international businesses based in the US but good for local businesses,exactly those guys also sponsor Trump, and international business sponsors democrats. The tariffs will be nice for local producers and push the domestic producers but other countries will react with tariffs themselves so businesses that rely on global scale will suffer. But IMO about time that these US mega caps reach their scale limit and have more local competition. A good day for local producers and a bad day for companies like Apple etc, they will receive tariffs themselves   Thoughts?

Thats sounds about right. I think companies like Apple, Tesla, Nike and Starbucks will be elbowed out of China by team China. Cheaper domestic competition  and not so subtle nudging from the CCP will do it, it’s just a matter of time.

 

 

[Red Lion]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Elon is a Ketamine junkie and probably tries all drugs

Yet he still seems to outperform Boeing and nasa while running a million other companies. Pretty crazy. 

[Junior R]

Quote

The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy. They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.

 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Junior R said:

 

Might be the top tick for the USD which has been very strong lately. FWIW, the USD is used for about ~50% of the global trade and that has not changed much over the last few years.

[Tenerife]

After the Russian war , the actual stats does not cover the oil/gas trading happening between Russia and others(this avoids the dollar due to the sanctions). Hence the actual trade is less than 50% now.

[Blake Hampton]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Might be the top tick for the USD which has been very strong lately. FWIW, the USD is used for about ~50% of the global trade and that has not changed much over the last few years.

 

I don't understand how the USD can be getting stronger when almost everything I've ever read or heard has pointed directly towards depreciation. Didn't Buffett used to have billions in forex contracts? I've been looking for any signs of them in Berkshire's recent reports, but I think they're negligible now.

 

I really wonder sometimes what Buffett thinks about the dollar.

Edited December 1 by Blake Hampton