Gregmal Posted February 8 Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Luca said: Fun times, IMO short report misses the forest for the trees...market does seem to be a bit concerned though, short sellers really are the sleaziest of em all...remember the PDD report that came out...they want to create fear and panic and suck the blood out of unknowing investors. Especially if the short thesis is just weak as it is here... How about the bald weasel's Super Micro hit piece LMFAO?
Hektor Posted February 8 Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: it definitely muddies the waters
Luke Posted February 8 Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Gregmal said: How about the bald weasel's Super Micro hit piece LMFAO? "After our intense research and FORENSIC accounting (LOL)" we discovered HUGE problems yadda yadda yadda....then lots of technical words, make it confusing and long with many numbers so investor is overwhelmed and rethinks himself...they really are a sad pathetic ghost. Also how they have to make these huge announcements...WE ARE SHORT!!!! Just short in disguise, id respect that but not with a big parade, gaslighting and deceptive fireworks
Gregmal Posted February 8 Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Luca said: "After our intense research and FORENSIC accounting (LOL)" we discovered HUGE problems yadda yadda yadda....then lots of technical words, make it confusing and long with many numbers so investor is overwhelmed and rethinks himself...they really are a sad pathetic ghost. Also how they have to make these huge announcements...WE ARE SHORT!!!! Just short in disguise, id respect that but not with a big parade, gaslighting and deceptive fireworks Yea I totally respect someone like Steve Eisman and the way he goes about it, but these bullshit artists who basically do nothing but take positions and then rant and rave on social media and TV....total scumbags. 1
ander Posted February 8 Posted February 8 51 minutes ago, gfp said: CNBC has video https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/08/muddy-waters-carson-block-on-why-hes-shorting-fairfax-financial.html Read the presentation. Nothing stands out as material. He's not saying there is fraud but rather the accounting practices are aggressive in some cases. 1) In the interview on CNBC, he did mention x-head of PWC (the auditor) being on the board. R. William McFarland. Carson suggested this board member might be keeping the auditor less independent than otherwise would be. His bio is at the bottom. Seems like he's involved as a director at a number of their businesses. I do not necessarily like the connection if he was the former auditor for Fairfax but nothing sinister in itself. He may know the businesses better than others and can possibly add more value and is appropriate to be on the board. Anyone have a view on Bill? 2) In the interview on CNBC, Becky asked where he would cover. Carson did not answer. Said if book value should be 20% lower and should trade lower than book value at 0.8x or so instead of premium because they are manipulating book value. Overall, I find the short case to be extremely weak!! Guess it is an opportunity for investors / Fairfax to buy additional shares lower. Mr. McFarland is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. and a director of our publicly traded subsidiaries, Dexterra Group Inc., Farmers Edge Inc. and Fairfax India Holdings Corporation. Mr. McFarland previously served as Chair of the Board of Directors of The Conference Board of Canada. Mr. McFarland was the Chief Executive Officer and Senior Partner of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (Canada) from 2011 to 2018. Prior to that, Mr. McFarland was a member of the executive team at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (Canada) from 2005 to 2011, having been admitted to the partnership in 1992 and having led the Greater Toronto Area audit practice from 2002 to 2005. Mr. McFarland is a Chartered Professional Accountant and a fellow of the Chartered Professional Accountants of Ontario.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Hektor said: IF the share price tanks, what is the impact on (of) TRS? Cash would flow out of Fairfax to the counterparty. But this dip so far only takes us back to where we were in January, so nothing to be concerned with on Q1 at this point as it's just reversing cash that would have been due to Fairfax. Plus, we've got blowout earnings coming in a week that may take us right back up. TRS is only concerning when the economy actually tips IMO. Then you'll likely have falling asset values AND falling liquidity as it drains cash from Fairfax's coffers. Edited February 8 by TwoCitiesCapital
Ghost Posted February 8 Posted February 8 I would be curious to here what Viking has to say on the MW report
Spooky Posted February 8 Posted February 8 Just now, Ghost said: I would be curious to here what Viking has to say on the MW report Me too. He's probably typing a novella as we speak.
Castanza Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) $SAVE, $PARA, and $FFH....great start to the year.... Time to put on the big boy pants and buy the dip. Greg does make a good point that the majority of what he said is simply in the past. I mean he's talking about their short positions from the GFC lol Fairfax is a whole new animal at this point. Carson: "Nobody's done the work on Fairfarx." @Viking <---- someone who HAS done the work Edited February 8 by Castanza
Hektor Posted February 8 Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Cash would flow out of Fairfax to the counterparty. But this dip so far only takes us back to where we were in January, so nothing to be concerned with on Q1 at this point as it's just reversing cash that would have been due to Fairfax. Plus, we've got blowout earnings coming in a week that may take us right back up. TRS is only concerning when the economy actually tips IMO. Then you'll likely have falling asset values AND falling liquidity as it drains cash from Fairfax's coffers. Thank you @TwoCitiesCapital
Hektor Posted February 8 Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, Ghost said: I would be curious to here what Viking has to say on the MW report +1
Hektor Posted February 8 Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, Ghost said: Oh and a really good Sanjeev rant. +1
Intelligent_Investor Posted February 8 Posted February 8 Honestly if he wants to short a few more shares I can lend him mine. Just gotta call me up
Hoodlum Posted February 8 Posted February 8 Bret Horn must be working on his latest update as we speak.
gfp Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) Might be lost in the news of the morning, but Prem resigned from the Blackberry board of directors today (as of 2/15) "in connection with the Company's repayment at maturity of its $150 million principal amount convertible debentures held by Fairfax" Edited February 8 by gfp
Viking Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) 1 hour ago, gfp said: CNBC has video https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/08/muddy-waters-carson-block-on-why-hes-shorting-fairfax-financial.html Ok… what an interesting thing to wake up to (i live on the West Coast and am a night owl). So let me get this straight. He shorted Fairfax primarily because the company has not hit is 15% CAGR for growth in book value over the past decade? Just 9%. And because some people stupidly say that Prem is the Warren Buffett of Canada? Well, yes, Fairfax hasn’t hit its 15% CAGR over the past decade. That is true. And Prem is not the Warren Buffett of Canada. But who says that anymore? Only dummies of people looking using it as clickbait. Not anyone who understands Fairfax. So if he is getting his information from these people he might want to expand who is talking to. And his smoking gun is Recipe? That is the first example he brought up so i have to assume it is his best example. Seriously? Riverstone AVLN’s are complex? Yup. We then take a crazy trip into the past. He says he thinks Fairfax ‘might have’ owned some credit default swaps during the great financial crisis. That is an example of solid research? You don’t know that? Governance: 2 kids on the board? True. (If he thinks that is a big problem he might want to check out a company called Berkshire Hathaway - that one is probably much easier to short). Auditor: Former head of PWC Canada on board? True. Problem if PWC Canada is your auditor? ‘Lulling them to sleep’? That is such a precise accusation. Was he with his grandkids when he thought up that line? Oh, and the best part… the P&C insurance business is good. After listening to the interview i feel like the old lady in the Wendy’s commercial… ‘This is all fluff… where’s the beef’. Edited February 8 by Viking
Ghost Posted February 8 Posted February 8 MW main write up is over inflating BV due to accounting gimmicks.
Dinar Posted February 8 Posted February 8 If they had been intellectually honest, they would have addressed BIAL.
StubbleJumper Posted February 8 Posted February 8 40 minutes ago, gfp said: Might be lost in the news of the morning, but Prem resigned from the Blackberry board of directors today (as of 2/15) "in connection with the Company's repayment at maturity of its $150 million principal amount convertible debentures held by Fairfax" Excellent! It's good to get that capital back and now that Prem is no longer part of the BoD, perhaps FFH will find a way to dispose of the equity investment. It would be nice to close the books on this one. SJ
LC Posted February 8 Posted February 8 Yeah the main point of MW is overinflating book (carrying) value of assets. There appears to be a case for that. Market values are lower than carrying value for many of FFH's smaller investments. Two points: One, this is one of the reasons I don't really like using BV as a means of valuation. Earnings matter. Second, as Dinar said there is a flip side. Other assets in FFH are performing very well. And, let's assume there was no nefarious reason for FFH's dealings - well, they would have to be booked the way that Fairfax has done so. i.e. If I decide to buyout the remainder of a partial investment, I have to write-up the whole investment on my books. Now, testing impairment should also happen regularly. But take a look even at Berkshire - how long it took them to impair their Kraft Heinz position despite the market price already having reflected. Carrying value will always trail market value. As long as both move in the right direction I think it is reasonable. I would like the company (Prem) to make this point...and perhaps some board members who are closer to the company can share their views. 23 minutes ago, Ghost said: MW main write up is over inflating BV due to accounting gimmicks.
Thrifty3000 Posted February 8 Posted February 8 (edited) Busch league. It barely qualifies as a short thesis. Even if MW's claims are valid, what's the downside? A $20 million regulatory slap on the wrist, where FFH neither admits nor denies wrongdoing? One of the best investments I ever made was in Jefferies during their 2011 short attack. At least the Jefferies attack was existential. The MW attack on FFH is just toothless noise. A comparison to Jack Welch's GE (and GE Capital) is just silly. #buyingOpportunity Edited February 8 by Thrifty3000
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