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Hoodlum

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Everything posted by Hoodlum

  1. it looks like Fairfax invested a total of $24M US in 2018/19 for their 50% ownership of Onlia. I have not found any other mention of this investment since then so I have no idea of its current value.
  2. While it doesn’t necessarily equate, but shorts need to sell borrowed share to add to their position. It could also be some large blocks trading for another reason.
  3. Today’s trading volume in the US and CA was double the average and much higher than last week. I wonder if more shorts are getting added.
  4. Someone needs to ask Prem at the AGM about Micron as an AI play.
  5. Fairfax is offering $1B in 30yr notes at 6.35%. Is this replacing existing debt or do they have other plans for this? https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-pricing-of-senior-notes-offering-03-19-2024/
  6. Farmers Edge deal will close on Thursday. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/farmers-edge-obtains-final-court-order-approving-plan-of-arrangement-831538915.html
  7. Fairfax sweetens the deal for IDBI Bank
  8. But wouldn’t Fairfax’s larger float at least somewhat negate this advantage during a really bad cat year.
  9. Trading over $1500 cdn for the first time. Next stop is $2000cdn/$1500US, maybe both of these Cdn/US milestones will occur on the same day.
  10. Some interesting comments from Eurobank on how they plan to use Hellenic Bank for India and Middle East business, once they acquire the Majority stake. https://www.cbn.com.cy/article/2024/3/14/764158/eurobank-plans-to-make-cyprus-an-eu-gateway-for-india-and-the-middle-east/
  11. This was in interesting write up on Fairfax’s Astarta-Kyiv business that they own 30% of. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-farming-in-the-time-of-war-how-prem-watsas-fairfax-financial-built-an/
  12. I was just discussing this further with my son. He actually purchased 1/2 a share once his broker started offering fractional ownership. He believes that it doesn’t make much of a difference, now that fractional ownership is available. Surprisingly, he mentioned he likes the idea of owning a fraction of a high priced stock rather than seeing the stock being split. So maybe there is some psychological benefit to not splitting. LOL
  13. I will agree with cwericb on this. My son is in university and had a little bit of spare funds available from his interest free student loan that he wanted to start investing in stocks. He spread it around with just 200-300 in each of 10 different investments. Initially, he decided not to invest in Fairfax as he didn’t want so much tied up in one company. After about a year he did buy his first share after he saw the growth from my investment but by then it was around $1k cdn per share While I would agree a lower price would attract more investors that don’t understand Fairfax, it would bring in some younger investors earlier who would gain a better understanding over time. Over the long run this would provide a deeper pool of longterm Fairfax investors. Fairfax will only get more challenging over time for younger investors to start investing in. Fairfax could become a $5000cdn/share in 5 years just based on current growth a a 1.5x book value. At some point they will need to review this .
  14. Is there any black out period before the release of the Annual Report?
  15. MW is currently well under water with their current short position. It would not surprise me if they initiated another Smash and Grab next week before the Annual Report is released, in order to limit the losses on their current short position. I don't think they can wait too long with the share price continuing to rise.
  16. Additional confirmation of Go Digit IPO approval. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-clears-fairfax-backed-digits-ipo-after-delay-letter-shows-2024-03-01/
  17. The RBC Target is in US$ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-tuesdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-for-feb-20/ RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Heleniak continues to see shares of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T, FFH.U-T) as “attractive at current levels” following “solid” fourth-quarter results that saw “one of the company’s better underwriting results in recent quarters as well as strong dividend and investment income.” “Reserve releases were above normal in Q4 at a time when some peers are seeing weaker reserving while core margins remained healthy,” he added. “Overall premiums were down albeit this was impacted by a few large non-renewals. Affiliate income was lower than in recent quarters. Share buybacks picked up in Q4 and the company recently raised its annual dividend.” On Thursday, the Toronto-based firm reported net earnings per share of US$52.87, which exceeded Mr. Heleniak’s US$30.70 net estimate. He estimated Fairfax earned US$31.15 per share on an operating basis versus his US$27.70 forecast, citing its combined ratio as the main source of the upside. “Fairfax’s Q4 P&C combined ratio was 89.9 per cent, its best combined ratio all year,” he said. “Reserve development for the quarter (2.7 points) was above the recent run rate with OdysseyRe, Northbridge, and Zenith National each generating double-digit reserve releases. NWP declined 5.5 per cent due to non-renewals at Brit and OdysseyRe. Fairfax is still seeing mid-single-digit insurance rate increases in its insurance book, which we believe is still outpacing loss cost trends. On the Q4 call, the company refuted the Muddy Waters short report and specifically took time to defend their stance on topics such as their investment in Digit Insurance, valuation methods for Level III investments (specifically for Recipe, Exco, and Quest), third party transaction protocol, and IFRS 17. We thought management did a solid job of addressing these topics.” Maintaining his 2024 forecast, Mr. Heleniak raised his 2025 net EPS estimate by US$2 to US$152.00, citing “slightly better” premium and combined ratio assumptions. That prompted him to raise his target for Fairfax shares to US$1,200 from US$1,085, maintaining an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $1,744.76 (Canadian). “We believe the new price target is warranted considering our constructive underwriting and net investment income outlook for 2024 and given favorable multiples for P&C insurers in the sector,” he said. “Fairfax’s underwriting units continue to deliver impressive results and its investment portfolio has likewise begun delivering improving returns as some of its associate/affiliate holdings are monetized. We would look for these things to continue as Fairfax’s insurance companies are well positioned to capitalize on improved P&C pricing and have a track record of opportunistic growth in such environments. Our thesis is that Fairfax’s long-term track record of double-digit book value growth will continue and the current valuation provides an attractive risk-reward entry point for those willing to back the company’s long-term investment track record. Fairfax has a deep cash position and ample access to capital, which gives it the flexibility to be opportunistic as well as patient.”
  18. With Quess hosting an investor meeting on the 21st to discuss the demerger and the Greek PM visiting India this week along with a business delegation, I wonder if Prem will be in India this week. https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1232110/greeces-gateway-to-asia-indias-gateway-to-europe/ It is also interesting to note that Greece’s most important long-term foreign investor is Indian-Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, founder and CEO of the Fairfax Financial Holdings. Mr. Watsa often states that “Greece is still by far the best European country to invest in.” With knowledge of both countries, he has been a steady promoter of Greek-Indian business cooperation.
  19. Here are some more details behind the Quess decision. There is an investor meeting on Wednesday where more details may come out. https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/quess-corp-share-price-demerger-three-entities-swap-ratio-revenue-contribution-19077801.htm/amp “Finding a strategic investor will be related to the opportunity to bring with them and not for the sake of the money that they bring because we are sufficiently capitalised, we have Fairfax is an investor, got $90 billion of assets under management, promoters own 57% of the company. So, it's unlikely that we need cash,” Issac said. He added that if there is a principle of additionality and something that investors can bring to the table, then the company would be open to discuss but not otherwise. Based on the demerged entities, Quess Corp will contribute 68% to the consolidated revenue of the company, Digitide will contribute 14%, while the remaining 18% will come from Bluspring. "This proposal should help the company compare on comparable metric with listed players, which might be welcomed by investors," brokerage firm Motilal Oswal said in its note. Quess Corp will hold an investor meet on February 21 for the same.
  20. I know MW says they are still shorting but I wouldn’t trust anything they say. Do we know they didn’t cover over a week ago? Maybe @sleepydragon is able to see that.
  21. Here is the full press release from Quess. https://www.quesscorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/demerger-release-16022024.pdf
  22. With the Digit IPO likely happening this year and now the splitting of Quess into 3 public trading companies, MW’s report is becoming thinner than it already was. https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/quess-corp-to-split-into-three-independent-listed-companies/articleshow/107763011.cms The company’s largest shareholder, Fairfax Financial Holdings chairman Prem Watsa said each of the new entities would be a market-leading player with the ability to leverage opportunities that come its way through its renewed focus. “From the time we initially invested in Quess Corp Ltd., in 2013, the company has become one of the largest domestic employers in India and has the potential to develop as a significant business services player on a global scale.” “We are confident that this strategic initiative will benefit all shareholders and ensure that the management team gets the support to achieve the set-out goals from the demerger,” Watsa said.
  23. The Globe provided some of the detailed quotes from today's conference call. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fairfax-rebuts-short-seller-defends-investment-valuations/
  24. Jeffrey Stacey from Stacey Muirhead Capital Management discussed the Muddy Waters report on Fairfax and commented on a few of the transactions in particular . https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/muddy-waters-short-report-on-fairfax-is-highly-misleading-fairfax-shareholder~2865584
  25. That is interesting as Digit had by far the greatest gap between the book value of $3.5b and their estimated value of $1.5b from their initial report. I suspect the report from yesterday that the Go Digit IPO was approved gave them some pause as they didn’t want to give Prem any ammunition in his response in case he was able to comment on the IPO. I hope Prem is able to discuss the IPO and does bring it up during the response to these questions. GO Digit made up a large share of MW’s book shortfall.
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