Hoodlum

RBC reaffirmed their Buy rating on Fairfax this week, with target set at $2277US (3200 cdn)

The new Airport Metro station is expected to be completed in the next 12 months. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/bangalore-international-airport-limited-confidentthat-bengaluru-airport-will-be-secondlargest-in-india/article71222027.ece/amp/

It looks like Fairfax has upped their offer again. We may be getting close to an official announcement. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/fairfax-to-acquire-idbi-bank-stake-in-5-5-billion-deal-biggest-foreign-investment-in-indian-bank/articleshow/132400419.cms?from=mdr The government has finalised Fairfax Holdings for the sale of its stake in IDBI Bank after the Canadian firm sweetened its offer, people aware of the development said. The decision was made Tuesday after meetings at the finance ministry. “Fairfax is now offering ₹81 per share, which is higher than their offer of ₹75 given last year,” one of the people said. “After much discussion, the government and Fairfax have agreed to shake hands and the official announcement could be made anytime now,” the person said. An empowered group of ministers that includes finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has been apprised of the revised bids and subsequent developments, another person aware of the matter said. “A formal notification will come soon and post that a letter of intent will be issued, followed by signing of the share-purchase agreement.”

that seems like a good price for Altius. I agree that Fairfax is likely not involved.

The IDBI Bank divestment seems to be moving again. New sealed bids are now being reviewed by the government with a possible decision in August. https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/idbi-bank-shares-jump-over-3-percent-as-government-receives-revised-bids-for-stake-sale-11768041/amp/1 Shares of IDBI Bank rose as much as 4.08% to an intraday high of Rs 87.50 on Tuesday after the government received revised financial bids from two foreign bidders for its stake sale in the lender, according to official sources familiar with the matter. Fairfax Holdings and Emirates NBD remain in the race to acquire the government's stake in IDBI Bank. Sources told NDTV Profit that Fairfax Holdings' revised bid is closer to the government's reserve price, with the Centre targeting around Rs 50,000 crore from the strategic disinvestment. The winning bidder has not yet been finalised, with a decision likely over the next month, sources said. According to Bloomberg, the government is close to accepting Fairfax Financial Holdings' offer after the Canadian insurer reportedly raised its bid by a few rupees per share following the rejection of its earlier offer, which was below the reserve price. The report added that the transaction will require approvals from the Union Cabinet and the Reserve Bank of India before it can be completed.

As a part of the Free Trade discussion between Vietnam and Canada, it looks like Fairfax will have the ability to sell some new insurance products in Vietnam. There were no details on what this entails. https://itpc.hochiminhcity.gov.vn/web/en/-/vietnam-eyes-greater-canadian-investment-as-fta-talks-progress He noted that Canadian companies continue to increase their presence in Vietnam, highlighting Fairfax Financial's long-term investments in the insurance sector. He added that the MoF (Ministry of Finance) has instructed relevant agencies to facilitate the approval of new products proposed by Fairfax Financial in accordance with Vietnamese regulations.

For the remaining purchase capacity I believe you would also need to include the shares purchased for Treasury. There were 25k shares purchased in Q4 and 52k shares purchased in Q1. I am not sure what was purchased for Treasury in Q2.

I noticed that total dollar value of Shares Purchased for Treasury dropped from $240M in 2024 to $189M in 2025. I am not sure of the reason for this drop as I would expect the total dollar amount to gradually grow over time as the number of employees increase. So the total dollar amount that is purchased for treasury in 2026 could vary as well.

During all of 2025 they purchased 118k shares for Treasury. In Q1 this year they purchased 52k shares for Treasury. I believe we may see additional purchases for Treasury this year. (corrected number of shares)

During Q4 2025 I believe we absorbed 464,742 shares (YE-1,006,535 shares purchased minus Q3-541,794 shares purchased). The Q1/Q2 purchases look to be correct. Q3 Results "in the first nine months of 2025, partially offset by the payment of common share dividends of $343.6 million and purchases of 541,794 subordinate voting shares for cancellation at an aggregate cost of $856.8 million)." Year End Results “During the year we purchased 1,006,535 subordinate voting shares for cancellation for cash consideration of $1.6 billion, or $1,615 per share”, said Prem Watsa, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

I presume your Q2 300k share buybacks does not include June, as it looks like they bought back ~500k that month.

I don't think so but I don't have access to that detail.

180k shares traded today with most of that at the close.

That seems to be close to what I am thinking for bond losses.

Thanks @dartmonkey without actually going through the calculations, I had a feeling that the MTM gains would be at best flat for q2. The bond yields started to spike higher yesterday so we will see a noticeable impact to earnings from the bond losses.

Fitch has upgraded Eurobank to BBB. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/fitch-upgrades-eurobank-to-bbb-outlook-stable-01-07-2026

Kennedy Wilson likely delayed these announcements until after the acquisition by Management and Fairfax has closed. It will be interesting to see how Kennedy-Wilson grows over the coming years. Kennedy Wilson and Jamison Announce Joint Venture to Deliver 4,000 Affordable Housing Units Across the City of Los Angeles Kennedy Wilson acquires 421-unit multifamily community in Westchester County, NY for $237 Million Does anyone know if there is any truth to these statements.

Eurobank is planning to invest €1 billion by 2028 in Digital banking, including AI. There is quite a bit of detailed information from this presentation. I have pulled out a few interesting comments. https://cyprus-mail.com/2026/07/01/eurobank-unveils-e1bn-plan-to-reshape-digital-banking At the centre of the strategy is the largest technology investment programme in Eurobank’s history, with approximately €1 billion earmarked for the 2025 to 2028 period to strengthen infrastructure, cloud technologies, data capabilities, AI and new digital services. It said the strategy rests on three interconnected pillars. The first focuses on using data and AI to anticipate customer needs and deliver highly personalised services. The second aims to simplify customer interactions through conversational digital banking. The third integrates banking and non-banking services into broader digital ecosystems designed to create additional value for customers and businesses. A significant part of the presentation focused on artificial intelligence, which the bank said is playing an increasingly important role in customer service, productivity and innovation. Its AI ecosystem includes EVA, the bank’s customer virtual assistant, myEVA, an internal AI voice assistant for staff, the GenAI Factory platform and the Digital Brain programme. AI is already being used in areas including mortgage assessments, customer feedback analysis, contract processing and the development of new digital services. Eurobank said its GenAI Factory combines Microsoft Azure, EY.ai Agentic Platform and NVIDIA accelerated computing, while a strategic partnership with Fairfax Digital Services makes it one of the first banking groups in south-eastern Europe to adopt structured Agentic AI solutions. The bank is also developing an enterprise-wide Digital Brain with Accenture to integrate AI throughout customer experience and internal operations, while its Global Delivery Centre in Pune, India, established with LTM, formerly LTIMindtree, and Fairfax Digital Services, supports innovation across the group’s international operations. Eurobank added that more than 1,500 employees completed specialist AI training programmes totalling over 17,000 hours during 2025 and 2026, while the bank continues supporting the MSc in AI for Digital Transformation at the Athens University of Economics and Business. Its Digital & Technology Hub has recruited around 250 new professionals in recent years, while its Digital Factory, comprising 13 agile teams and 146 specialists, has reduced the development time for new digital products from approximately 30 weeks to just eight weeks.

Prem spoke at a Washington area forum yesterday, after receiving a US-India Leadership Award. https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/india-tariff-reforms-open-unlimited-opportunity-fairfax-financial-ceo/132086440

Thanks @Maverick47 for going back to the annual report for the catastrophe risk. Reading it again I can how complex it would be to come up with a framework for each insurance company to sustain such of an event.

Thanks @Viking for these great write ups on float and the impact on growth. I am sure you will include this in a future article but a larger float also increases risk during very large Cat events. Fairfax’s international and multi-line growth will certainly help to mitigate this better than in the past but I am curious how a 1 in 100 or 400 year hurricane event would impact Fairfax. How much cash should the US insurance subs and Fairfax keep on hand for such an event.

I normally don’t reference SeekingAlpha but I thought this was a great analysis of Altius Minerals. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4917683-altius-minerals-the-royalty-factory-is-starting-to-look-like-a-compounder

There was an article in the June edition of UK Corporate Financier magazine on the MW Eats acquisition by Fairfax. Of course Prem had to ask this question. As 82-year-old Mathrani allegedly told Watsa when asked to keep working for longer: “I can’t hold your hand while I’m being led to the crematorium.” https://www.icaew.com/-/media/corporate/files/technical/corporate-finance/corporate-financier/full-editions/2026/corporate-financier-june-2026.ashx

AM Best upgraded Polish Re. It is always interesting to see rating upgrades to some of the smaller insurance subs as it provides some insight we normally don't have visibility to. https://news.ambest.com/NewsContent.aspx?refnum=275297&altsrc=23 //BestWire// - AM Best has upgraded the Financial Strength Rating to A (Excellent) from A- (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings to “a” (Excellent) from “a-” (Excellent) of Polskie Towarzystwo Reasekuracji S.A. (Polish Re) (Poland). The outlook of these Credit Ratings (ratings) is stable. The ratings also reflect the lift Polish Re receives due to the support provided by its ultimate parent, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) [TSX: FFH], in particular the explicit parental guarantee in place for Polish Re. In addition, Fairfax provides technical support in areas such as reserving, retrocession protection and investment management services. Fairfax’s commitment to Polish Re was demonstrated by its PLN 78 million (USD 18 million) capital injection in 2023. Polish Re’s risk-adjusted capitalisation, as measured by Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR), was at the strongest level at year-end 2025, and it is projected to remain at the same level in the medium term. Further supporting factors are Polish Re’s low dependence on retrocession and conservative investment strategy. Reserve development has been positive since 2024. Prior to 2024, the runoff of motor third-party liability business exhibited material volatility. Polish Re’s adequate operating performance assessment is supported by a five-year (2021-2025) average combined ratio of 95.4% and a five-year (2021-2025) average return-on-equity ratio of 10.7% (both as calculated by AM Best). The company’s underwriting performance improved in 2025, as evidenced by a combined ratio of 92.0% (2024: 97.8%) (as calculated by AM Best). Robust investment results supported an overall net profit of PLN 85.6 million (USD 23.8 million). Prospectively, investment income is expected to be a consistent contributor to the company’s profitability. Polish Re benefits from a diversified underwriting portfolio, with operations spanning approximately 40 markets. The company’s largest markets, as based on gross written premium in 2025, are Poland, Turkey and Israel. Additionally, the company has expanded its agriculture line of business significantly in recent years. AM Best considers Polish Re’s ERM to be developed and appropriate for its risk profile and operational scope.

Actually, after ready the above further it looks like the highest bid with 10-12% premium over current book. The reported book was rs67/share, which suggest a bid between rs73-75/share. So the new rs77/share is not much higher but the structure with IIFL and Digit is much different. This would also help explain why Fairfax increased their equity interest in IIFL last month to 51%. Doesn't Fairfax own only 49% of Digit?