Hoodlum

I normally don’t reference SeekingAlpha but I thought this was a great analysis of Altius Minerals. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4917683-altius-minerals-the-royalty-factory-is-starting-to-look-like-a-compounder

There was an article in the June edition of UK Corporate Financier magazine on the MW Eats acquisition by Fairfax. Of course Prem had to ask this question. As 82-year-old Mathrani allegedly told Watsa when asked to keep working for longer: “I can’t hold your hand while I’m being led to the crematorium.” https://www.icaew.com/-/media/corporate/files/technical/corporate-finance/corporate-financier/full-editions/2026/corporate-financier-june-2026.ashx

AM Best upgraded Polish Re. It is always interesting to see rating upgrades to some of the smaller insurance subs as it provides some insight we normally don't have visibility to. https://news.ambest.com/NewsContent.aspx?refnum=275297&altsrc=23 //BestWire// - AM Best has upgraded the Financial Strength Rating to A (Excellent) from A- (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings to “a” (Excellent) from “a-” (Excellent) of Polskie Towarzystwo Reasekuracji S.A. (Polish Re) (Poland). The outlook of these Credit Ratings (ratings) is stable. The ratings also reflect the lift Polish Re receives due to the support provided by its ultimate parent, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) [TSX: FFH], in particular the explicit parental guarantee in place for Polish Re. In addition, Fairfax provides technical support in areas such as reserving, retrocession protection and investment management services. Fairfax’s commitment to Polish Re was demonstrated by its PLN 78 million (USD 18 million) capital injection in 2023. Polish Re’s risk-adjusted capitalisation, as measured by Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR), was at the strongest level at year-end 2025, and it is projected to remain at the same level in the medium term. Further supporting factors are Polish Re’s low dependence on retrocession and conservative investment strategy. Reserve development has been positive since 2024. Prior to 2024, the runoff of motor third-party liability business exhibited material volatility. Polish Re’s adequate operating performance assessment is supported by a five-year (2021-2025) average combined ratio of 95.4% and a five-year (2021-2025) average return-on-equity ratio of 10.7% (both as calculated by AM Best). The company’s underwriting performance improved in 2025, as evidenced by a combined ratio of 92.0% (2024: 97.8%) (as calculated by AM Best). Robust investment results supported an overall net profit of PLN 85.6 million (USD 23.8 million). Prospectively, investment income is expected to be a consistent contributor to the company’s profitability. Polish Re benefits from a diversified underwriting portfolio, with operations spanning approximately 40 markets. The company’s largest markets, as based on gross written premium in 2025, are Poland, Turkey and Israel. Additionally, the company has expanded its agriculture line of business significantly in recent years. AM Best considers Polish Re’s ERM to be developed and appropriate for its risk profile and operational scope.

Actually, after ready the above further it looks like the highest bid with 10-12% premium over current book. The reported book was rs67/share, which suggest a bid between rs73-75/share. So the new rs77/share is not much higher but the structure with IIFL and Digit is much different. This would also help explain why Fairfax increased their equity interest in IIFL last month to 51%. Doesn't Fairfax own only 49% of Digit?

See above for prior post on this. There was an article from May where the government was considering reducing their reserve price of rs94/share by 20%. The new rs77/share bid would line up with that. Adding IIFL and Digit to IDBI bank would transform IDBI to a larger financial company. This would likely be of interest to the Indian government.

If accurate, the ₹77 per share bid is 20% more the the prior highest bid when Fairfax and Emirates NBD submitted their bids a few months ago.

I would be very surprised if this is related to the TRS. Fairfax has always said that this is an investment and they treat it like any other investment. It would not make any sense to close out some of the TRS at this price. from an investment perspective.

Since the NCIB was announced on September 30, I believe Fairfax has bought back 1.5M shares (incl ~500k share in Q4). They still have about 700k share available to buy back from that NCIB (2.2M shares). Fairfax may not need to issue a new NCIB before the existing one expires, unless there is the opportunity for another very large buyback.

The real question is why someone would be selling at this price. I understand the need sometimes for fund rebalancing, but it would seem it is very poor timing to sell now. I thought the same when Fairfax was able to scoop up $2M share at $500US/share in 2021.

Would Fairfax issue any press release for this buyback of 2% of outstanding shares? They have not done this previously, although I believe we have not see a buyback this large since the Substantial Issuer Bid in 2021. I believe Fairfax has now likely bought back 5% of outstanding share since Jan 1st.

@SafetyinNumbers thanks for sharing this. I was about to ask if anyone saw the buyer for this trade. This certainly looks like a Fairfax buyback. We will get confirmation in about 2 weeks.

I could be wrong but when Fairfax was formed and the "fair and friendly" motto was introduced, Fairfax was not acquiring non-insurance companies and taking them private. I don't believe that started to occur until many years later. The "Fair and Friendly" motto was more in reference to the insurance companies they were acquiring, which was very frequent early on.

I am not sure of the accuracy of this as FIH doesn't have the cash to acquire these bonds. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/canadas-fairfax-buys-nearly-1-billion-indian-bonds-rare-move-sources-say-2026-06-23/ MUMBAI, June 23 (Reuters) - Fairfax (FFH.TO), bought Indian government debt worth nearly $1 billion last Friday, according to five sources, in a rare purchase through the local unit of the Canadian investment holding company. The purchases by Fairfax India Holding Corp (FIHu.TO), were made to bring ‌capital into the country ahead of a potential deal to buy stake in government-owned IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS), one of the sources, who is close to Fairfax, said. India's recent decision to exempt foreign investors in government bonds from capital gains tax made the transaction viable, according to this source. Fairfax bought around 60 billion rupees ($633.7 million) of the ⁠6.03% 2029 bond, which was sold at an auction last Friday, at a yield that was 5 basis points lower than market levels, four of the sources, all treasury officials, said. The company also likely bought around 6 billion rupees ⁠of the 6.79% 2027 bond and 26 billion rupees of treasury bills maturing in May and June 2027, the treasury officials added.

I doubt there was much of an uptick in oil getting out of the strait, with the mines still in place. It found it interesting to see oil drop below $80 without much changing in the flow of oil shipments. I think we will see another 2 months of little oil movement, with oil reserves continuing to drop.

Fairfax announced new $300M Notes offering. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-launches-c300-million-senior-notes-offering/