-Your best investments for 2024 and beyond-

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, KPO said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see something as boring as CPRI beat the indexes next year with a 15% return from here when the deal closes. I realize this is boring, but it’s a solid risk adjusted return investment. 

Also ACI - more challenging to close but lower downside risk

[Paarslaars]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Puts and treasuries obviously. 

I know you're joking but I was thinking puts on the magnificent 7... however with interest rates potentially dropping, that seemed like too big a risk.

 

4 hours ago, newtovalue said:

this may be a stupid question - but how do you guys own your crypto? do you self custody or through an exchange or through derivatives?

 

Currently exchange only (bitvavo).

 

 

8 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

With a fanatical Bitcoin Maximalist founder dedicated to using all company profits to increase its Bitcoin holdings.  He resigned as CEO so he could let someone else run the software side of the business so he could focus on Bitcoin.

 

“I believe that splitting the roles of Chairman and CEO will enable us to better pursue our two corporate strategies of acquiring and holding Bitcoin and growing our enterprise analytics software business,” Saylor said.

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/michael-saylor-will-step-down-as-microstrategy-ceo-but-will-remain-executive-chair

 

 

 

Thanks for this, if the position grows this looks easier to hold than the actual coins.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Paarslaars

[mattee2264]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Mag7 will once again handily beat the market especially if the Goldilocks scenario plays out 

(not too hot to put upwards pressure on inflation and interest rates and encourage a rotation into cyclicals

not too cold to result in earnings disappointments that growth investors tend to punish severely

although even in a recession scenario I suspect that they'd continue to be viewed as a safe haven )

And if AI enthusiasm persists and inflows continue into broad market index funds that will also support higher prices.

Although would avoid Tesla and Nvidia as they don't have the same quality as the others and bear uncanny resemblances to go-go stocks of the dot com bubble era and do not have the same kind of provenance as the others. 

 

I still have a large holding in oil and gas stocks. While they say they are for trading not owning they are attractively priced and in inflation adjusted terms the oil price really isn't that high and demand isn't going away anytime soon while supply will eventually fall as no one is making long term investments anymore and shale while prolific in the short term doesn't have longevity.

 

Emerging markets ex China looks like a good long term bet. Especially if you add to it some of the Chinese tech stocks which have been massively beaten down. Valuations are a lot cheaper than the USA. Growth prospects are better and you don't have the same government debt worries. Commodities are well represented and will do well if growth and inflation pick up again. There are also tailwinds from friend shoring and Western countries trying to do less business with China. Room for improvement in policies. And if inflation comes down then interest rates will come down and that will support higher valuations too.

Emerging market bonds also look interesting. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[lnofeisone]

I'm going with with small and midsized banks, Healthcare (focus on biotech), and long term munis.

[rkbabang]

8 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Thanks for this, if the position grows this looks easier to hold than the actual coins.

 

 

No problem.  I hold a larger position in actual coins, but I hold MSTR in my IRA.  There is no way easy way to buy the actual coins in a retirement account which is what led me to look into MSTR in the first place.  While I like to self custody as a safe guard against societal-level troubles, I think MSTR is a pretty good way to gain Bitcoin exposure too.  And will even outperform Bitcoin itself in some time periods.

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2023 by rkbabang

[rkbabang]

Nancy Pelosi votes $NVDA for 2024. She just bought 50 Dec 24 NVDA $120 strike calls.  I'd be more bullish if she bought out of the money calls, but still, maybe she knows something we don't.

 

 

[Jaygo]

I'm looking at some beaten down real estate Artis REIT and Morguard north American real estate trust in particular. These babies are left for dead so do as the vulture does.

 

I think Aritzia will shoot the lights out this holiday season and get back into the $40's ( 700 million CAD Christmas quarter is my high estimate ) or 13x earnings for a stable grower.

 

A basket of home construction stuff. JELD-WEN, Builders First Source, Doman Building supply in Canada, and for the risk averse there is Richelieu

 

If rates remain above inflation for much longer all the above will probably get kicked in the ass. I Kind of like the looks of Mako mining too but a microcap gold mine in Central America is just too speculative to sully the good Jaygo name on.

[Libs]

CASH  

SCHW

XPEL

JOE

HQI

Fairfax

 

I would add Lumine and Constellation, but they are due for a breather next year.

[StevieV]

IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win.

 

SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost.  The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts.  A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light).

 

PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally.  BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life.  However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups.  BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM. 

[Sweet]

On 12/22/2023 at 9:16 AM, lnofeisone said:

I'm going with with small and midsized banks, Healthcare (focus on biotech), and long term munis.

Agree with Healthcare and Biotech, but what to choose?  Not sure there is a ETF that I like.

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Agree with Healthcare and Biotech, but what to choose?  Not sure there is a ETF that I like.

Going with Illumina & Pacific Bioscience.

Pacbio bit of a gamble, Illumina seems like a sure thing now that they got rid of GRAIL dragging them down.

[lnofeisone]

45 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Going with Illumina & Pacific Bioscience.

Pacbio bit of a gamble, Illumina seems like a sure thing now that they got rid of GRAIL dragging them down.

I really like Illumina. I've also been playing some biotech liquidations, e.g., THRX. I also saw Reneo (RPHM) dropped because they failed but have a decently clean balance sheet with liquidation imminent. 

[lnofeisone]

Forgot to add mrtx too. I think a lot of biotechnology m&a under 10b will have no issues closing. I have no insights into CVRs but I like having these options. 

[Cod Liver Oil]

2024 will be an interesting year for Nintendo with a new console, GaaS growth and IP expansion. The yen will probably add some tailwind to the volatility.

As Nike suffers, MSGE will benefit as people continue to shift spending toward experiences. Dolan will probably start to re-merge S, E and Sphere opportunistically and get a mark on a minority interest in the Knicks.

Joe will continue to win.

Ebay and Paypal will throw in the towel and be acquired.

 

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Ebay and Paypal will throw in the towel and be acquired

Yo LOL.

 

One of those two I’ve been buying a lot of lately and totally agree. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

Going with Illumina & Pacific Bioscience.

Pacbio bit of a gamble, Illumina seems like a sure thing now that they got rid of GRAIL dragging them down.

Not so sure about Illumina being a sure thing.  Their technology is bettered by both Oxford Nanopore (have a look) and Pacbio and the industry seems to prefer the longer reads sequencing providers.
 

I’ve been watching all three but particularly Oxford Nanopore, I think it’s the best technology which will only get better but they aren’t executing on revenue growth.

 

I agree sequencing is going to be a bigger part of health care going forward but not sure that owning these companies is a slam dunk.

[lnofeisone]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not so sure about Illumina being a sure thing.  Their technology is bettered by both Oxford Nanopore (have a look) and Pacbio and the industry seems to prefer the longer reads sequencing providers.
 

I’ve been watching all three but particularly Oxford Nanopore, I think it’s the best technology which will only get better but they aren’t executing on revenue growth.

 

I agree sequencing is going to be a bigger part of health care going forward but not sure that owning these companies is a slam dunk.

Aren't the two markets different for ILMN vs. Nanopore. ILMN trumps in accuracy, which makes it better for clinical studies, while Nanopore is great for field studies with its length of sequencing but less accuracy. 

[Paarslaars]

7 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not so sure about Illumina being a sure thing.  Their technology is bettered by both Oxford Nanopore (have a look) and Pacbio and the industry seems to prefer the longer reads sequencing providers.

 

Not disagreeing here for the long term. I just believe Illumina will rerate now that the dead weight is gone.

[ourkid8]

Trisura, earlier this year the company was impacted by a one off write down and the stock price was hit pretty hard.  The company continues to hit the ball out of the park with an operating ROE of 20% and potentially a structural CR in the mid/ high 70s. The companies CEO is young and super smart and I expect it to trade back in line with its specialty insurance peers.

Brookfield, still undervalued on a SOTP, strong capable management (I know many will disagree here) and if rates come down this has pretty significant upside potential. I am really excited about its long term potential. 

 

British American tobacco, the share price is silly cheap. They need to avoid capital destructive behaviours (acquisitions and VC type investments).  Management should only focus on growing the dividend, debt pay down and repurchasing shares. That’s all.  In fact, I would prefer not to grow the dividend and use the cash for share repurchases but that won’t happen.  

Citi, share price is silly cheap. Jane looks to be doing all the right moves by selling non-core assets along with shutting non profitable businesses. The buyback thesis has not started yet but it should kick in nicely in 2024. 
 

fairfax, cheap compared to its peers but not like last year. This should be the gift that keeps on giving. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by ourkid8

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Aren't the two markets different for ILMN vs. Nanopore. ILMN trumps in accuracy, which makes it better for clinical studies, while Nanopore is great for field studies with its length of sequencing but less accuracy. 

A few years ago maybe. The latest chemistry improvement from Oxford Nanopore has brought the accuracy from 95% to 99%.  It’s not as accurate as Illumina or Pacbio yet but it is getting there and will likely match them in the next few years.  

All else being equal the longer the read the better, there is no benefit to short reads and that’s a problem for Illumina - they are trying to bring out long reads.

[Sweet]

5 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Not disagreeing here for the long term. I just believe Illumina will rerate now that the dead weight is gone.

Yes but what if the tech just moves on, and Illumina goes the way of Sanger?

[maplevalue]

On 12/22/2023 at 12:09 PM, Jaygo said:

I'm looking at some beaten down real estate Artis REIT and Morguard north American real estate trust in particular. These babies are left for dead so do as the vulture does.

Continuing blowout CAD population growth numbers further support the case for MRG. It’s a nice name where you get paid a nice dividend while you hope for the valuation to normalize. 

[SharperDingaan]

Not for beginners; but if you have the risk tolerance, liquidity, TFSA capacity, want to practice your risk management, and are predatory nimble .....  4-6 year play - at the end of which you might have enough to buy a modest house outright, tax free 

 

Lot of ugly's in this, not particularly well run, and there are better quality choices at higher prices. But Lenny, .... if you can afford 100,000-125,000 shares today, and the dog eventually gets to $4.00, 5 years out .... 400-500K is a worthy prize. The hope is that somebody takes CET out before then, and most likely in the next cycle.

 

We own a few shares, with a cost base in the low cents after swing trades.

https://www.cathedralenergyservices.com/

 

SD

Edited December 27, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Sweet said:

Yes but what if the tech just moves on, and Illumina goes the way of Sanger?

Thanks for the counterpoints @Sweet. Forced me to do a bit more digging. This reminds me of VRRM, a very similar setup with tech entrenchment, except here you have diagnostic equipment, which has so many Gov't hurdles. ILMN has a lot of contracts now, and all they have to do is keep up. Easier said than done, I know, but clients aren't keen on switching technology unless the payoff is exponential. The costs get astronomical very fast. Also, this dropped just last month. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-023-01540-6 

 

ILMN can also do long-range sequencing - https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing/long-read-sequencing.html. 

 

It's a long way of saying that some positives here to make risk/reward with the right sizing. 

 

[Sweet]

50 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Thanks for the counterpoints @Sweet. Forced me to do a bit more digging. This reminds me of VRRM, a very similar setup with tech entrenchment, except here you have diagnostic equipment, which has so many Gov't hurdles. ILMN has a lot of contracts now, and all they have to do is keep up. Easier said than done, I know, but clients aren't keen on switching technology unless the payoff is exponential. The costs get astronomical very fast. Also, this dropped just last month. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-023-01540-6 

 

ILMN can also do long-range sequencing - https://www.illumina.com/science/technology/next-generation-sequencing/long-read-sequencing.html. 

 

It's a long way of saying that some positives here to make risk/reward with the right sizing. 

 

Much sequencing, outside of places like hospitals, is performed by sequencing providers.  Most of these providers offer multiple types of sequencing approaches to their customers.  Typically Illumina and a long-read approach which has usually been Pacbio but some have all three.

 

The Pacbio instrument are hugely expensive but if you are a large dedicated sequencing provider you tend to just swallow the costs if that’s what your clients want.  The Oxford Nanopore basic sequencer can be bought for $1k making it by far the cheapest sequencer around. The technology is very different too.

 

Short-reads aren’t bad they just aren’t as good as long-reads all else being equal.  It’s simply more information.  Illumina still have a cost advantage over both Pacbio and Oxford Nanopore but it’s narrowing fast.

 

The long-read offering from Illumina makes sense they had to develop that.  How good it is nobody knows because it’s really only just on the market.

 

I’m not saying Illumina or Pacbio are bad bets.  I suppose I’m saying why own Illumina and Pacbio but not Oxford Nanopore which has by far the most interesting technology.  I am somewhat skeptical about the economics of Pacbio, uncertain about Illumina’s future and unsure that Oxford Nanopore are able to execute.  There is also the possibility that another company comes out with a new technology and just cleans up.

I guess the more I know the more I tend to think let’s just buy a biotech etf  

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Sweet