Cryptocurrencies

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

This is true.  You need to make arrangements for this with someone you trust while you are still alive.  And maybe a backup if that person is someone you are frequently in a car or plane together with.

 

The year is 2045, the Johnson family is traveling to Florida for the winter. The parents thought it best that everyone take a different method of transportation to best protect the seed phrase. Enjoy the 16 hour bus ride little Timmy. The whole family is counting on you.  

[rkbabang]

58 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

The year is 2045, the Johnson family is traveling to Florida for the winter. The parents thought it best that everyone take a different method of transportation to best protect the seed phrase. Enjoy the 16 hour bus ride little Timmy. The whole family is counting on you.  

Statistically air travel is safer, so if everyone is on a different flight the seed phrase should be safe.

 

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

But also no different to the rest of your banking data. Institutions, accounts, passwords, etc. Things you will rapidly find out comes the day you have to wind up someone's affairs as their executor!

 

SD

 

You can go to the bank with the death certificate...the bank will also make attempts to contact you for various reasons.  With wallets...it's gone baby...gone!  The only comparable would be old school Swiss bank accounts.  They wouldn't contact you either.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

This press release hasn't aged well!  

 

Cheers!

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ftx-and-kevin-oleary-announce-long-term-investment-and-spokesperson-relationship-301352189.html

[nwoodman]

I am sure it is just schadenfreude and I am not even sure who this is.  But it is so bizarre I watched it twice 

 

 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/sam-bankman-fried-fooled-the-crypto-world-and-maybe-even-himself?srnd=premium-europe

 

“A lot of people have compared this to Lehman. I would compare it to Enron,” former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Friday in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The smartest guys in the room. Not just financial error but -- certainly from the reports -- whiffs of fraud.”

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Yeah, it’s not Lehman , more like a crossover between of Theranos and Enron:

 

Here is an article from Sequoia caps website (taken down but accessed via way back machine):

https://web.archive.org/web/20221109230422/https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/sam-bankman-fried-spotlight/

 

Biggest red flag probably, even I’d you don’t know anything (eerily similar to Theranos):

 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Gets better. You can’t really make this stuff up:

From $32B valuation to zero in a couple of weeks.

 

Who is in: Sequoia, Tiger Global, Softbank and Ontario teachers pension fund,

Edited November 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[UK]

Does any major spillover from all this (or what has to come yet) could happen in fiat world/traditional financial system? What to avoid?

 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by UK

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, UK said:

Does any major spillover from all this (or what has to come yet) could happen in fiat world/traditional financial system? What to avoid?

 

 

 

For the most part...no. 

 

Not that it couldn't happen.  It's just that crypto and these trading platforms in many cases avoided registration, so they never became qualified investments for most institutions, funds and accounts. 

 

If major developed nations were stupid enough like Venezuela, then yes, this would have been more like the Financial Crisis rather than Enron.  I'm also not sure the tide is now out far enough to expose everyone who has been swimming naked.  There is probably still a little more fallout coming.  Maybe a bunch of smaller fish than FTX...but still more to come! 

 

It is actually a good opportunity to add blockchain companies and businesses to your portfolio if you want that exposure.  The reason being is that this is probably going to force developed nations to bring all crypto and blockchain companies into full compliance and regulatory oversight over the next couple of years.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Gets better. You can’t really make this stuff up:

From $32B valuation to zero in a couple of weeks.

 

Who is in: Sequoia, Tiger Global, Softbank and Ontario teachers pension fund,

 

Pretty damn funny!  Cheers!

[nwoodman]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Who is in: Sequoia, Tiger Global, Softbank and Ontario teachers pension fund,

Destroying the legacy of Bill Ruane one malinvestment at a time.  I would be fascinated to see “The new Sequoia” vs Berkshire returns since 2010.  Next rainy day….  
 

Edit:  

 

Smashing it

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by nwoodman

[UK]

43 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

For the most part...no. 

 

Not that it couldn't happen.  It's just that crypto and these trading platforms in many cases avoided registration, so they never became qualified investments for most institutions, funds and accounts. 

 

If major developed nations were stupid enough like Venezuela, then yes, this would have been more like the Financial Crisis rather than Enron.  I'm also not sure the tide is now out far enough to expose everyone who has been swimming naked.  There is probably still a little more fallout coming.  Maybe a bunch of smaller fish than FTX...but still more to come! 

 

It is actually a good opportunity to add blockchain companies and businesses to your portfolio if you want that exposure.  The reason being is that this is probably going to force developed nations to bring all crypto and blockchain companies into full compliance and regulatory oversight over the next couple of years.

 

Cheers!

 

Thanks! Do you own or know more ideas of blockchain companies in addition to OSTK?

[dealraker]

Always amazed at the excitement people get from the popular bunch selling something shiny and new, and often themselves, while giving common sense the middle finger.  Most at least pretend to be profitable, but the totally non productive asset version is tops for crazy in my lifetime.

Edited November 12, 2022 by dealraker

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

For the most part...no. 

 

Not that it couldn't happen.  It's just that crypto and these trading platforms in many cases avoided registration, so they never became qualified investments for most institutions, funds and accounts. 

 

If major developed nations were stupid enough like Venezuela, then yes, this would have been more like the Financial Crisis rather than Enron.  I'm also not sure the tide is now out far enough to expose everyone who has been swimming naked.  There is probably still a little more fallout coming.  Maybe a bunch of smaller fish than FTX...but still more to come! 

 

It is actually a good opportunity to add blockchain companies and businesses to your portfolio if you want that exposure.  The reason being is that this is probably going to force developed nations to bring all crypto and blockchain companies into full compliance and regulatory oversight over the next couple of years.

 

Cheers!

How do you regulate this crypto complex though? All the tokens and cryptic currencies have different properties but have no intrinsic value. They literally make the rules (for their token), issue them and then eat their cake too. So basically Ponzi schemes by design.  This SBH fellow for example owned a crypto hedge fund and an exchange with token holdings propping each other up. These things have to collapse. The only way they don’t is if more people keep buying them.

 

For all we know, dogecoin will ultimately become a zero. Most others crypto’s  as well. in my opinion, regulation is pretty futile. We have to separate the regular fiat financial system from crypto (no fiat lending backed by crypto ). If a crypto hedge fund going long dogecoin short Polkadot collapses, we shouldn’t care.

 

An interesting thing will be the stable coins. Does anyone really think they are backed by real currencies? Those are just disasters likely to happen. Then there is the whole crypto lending complex. What we need to do is segregate the crypto system form our financial  system and maybe regulate the on/off ramp in some way that a collapse causes no harm to our financial system.

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, UK said:

 

Thanks! Do you own or know more ideas of blockchain companies in addition to OSTK?

 

There are tons!  You would have to do your own research and dig deep into each one or find a niche you want to exploit.  I'm not smart enough, so that's why I just buy OSTK and let Pelion manage the portfolio for Medici Ventures.  I'm not paying for it, so I don't have to worry...it's essentially a free call option.  I'm just paying for the online retail business by buying OSTK.  Cheers!

 

 

[Castanza]

12 hours ago, nwoodman said:

I am sure it is just schadenfreude and I am not even sure who this is.  But it is so bizarre I watched it twice 

 

 

Cocaine is a helluva drug 

[no_free_lunch]

Some interesting analysis and a contrarian take.

 

Quote

In light of FTX Trading Limited’s announcement of bankruptcy amidst accusations of mishandling funds, crypto confidence reportedly soared Friday after investors realized that CEO Sam Bankman-Fried defrauded customers just like a real bank. 

 

https://www.theonion.com/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647?utm_campaign=TheOnion&utm_content=1668192819&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=twitterom/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

There are tons!  You would have to do your own research and dig deep into each one or find a niche you want to exploit.  I'm not smart enough, so that's why I just buy OSTK and let Pelion manage the portfolio for Medici Ventures.  I'm not paying for it, so I don't have to worry...it's essentially a free call option.  I'm just paying for the online retail business by buying OSTK.  Cheers!

 

 

I recall you had a juicy trade on Overstock in 2020, one of your best ones. 
 

I don’t know if you can share this but were you also trading it prior to 2020. 
 

Also I think Fairfax was also an owner (they sold way too soon), would you know anything on top of your head, in terms why they were interested in the name. Was it a classic founder-turn around situation or more like pennies on the dollar value trade.
 

thanks  
 

 

[UK]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-curse-sam-bankman-fried-ftx-collapse-2022-11

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, UK said:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-curse-sam-bankman-fried-ftx-collapse-2022-11

The problem is they keep calling people who make a lot of money fast “the next Buffett”.  But that isn’t how Buffett did it himself.  The ones calling these people the next Warren Buffett don’t understand Warren Buffett. It isn’t a curse, just misapplied labeling.

[JRM]

Came across a funny quote on Twitter, "Crypto is multi-level marketing for people who think they're too smart to be duped by multi-level marketing."

[Blugolds]

38 minutes ago, JRM said:

Came across a funny quote on Twitter, "Crypto is multi-level marketing for people who think they're too smart to be duped by multi-level marketing."

This made me laugh! All I’ve heard for the last year from coworkers/friends of friends is how Im a fool for not buying crypto, BRK is a boomer stock, BTC to the moon, better get in now before it goes back to 100k/Coin…buy all the dips! Greater fool theory…

 

Its been mentioned before..the real winner of the Powerball frenzy is the State via taxes…the real winner of easy cellphone trading/buying crypto are the top of the pyramid who got in first…and those facilitating the transactions and taking their cut. The old analogy of not wanting to be the guy standing in different streams panning for gold in 1949…you wanna be the guy owning the general store selling picks and shovels…

 

To be fair…a guy could post a trend of FB 1Yr and it would also be ugly…but at least FB generates cash, even if the market doesn’t like what Marky Z does with it

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Blugolds11

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I recall you had a juicy trade on Overstock in 2020, one of your best ones. 
 

I don’t know if you can share this but were you also trading it prior to 2020. 
 

Also I think Fairfax was also an owner (they sold way too soon), would you know anything on top of your head, in terms why they were interested in the name. Was it a classic founder-turn around situation or more like pennies on the dollar value trade.
 

thanks  
 

 

 

Fairfax knew the company well because they were both under a similar type of short attack by hedge funds, analysts and journalists.  There was some overlap in the players involved as well.  Whereas Patrick Byrne was this bombastic, confrontational type leader, Prem was a quiet, optimistic, stick to the plan type leader.  Yet both had become targets.

 

Sam Mitchell who was on the core investment team at Hamblin Watsa was old friends with Jack Byrne of Geico fame.  So he also knew Patrick.  I believe Sam was the one who initiated the interest on behalf of Hamblin Watsa.  Francis Chou also took a significant stake and naturally was close to Prem and Fairfax after being a vice-president there for so long.  Between the two, I think they had close to a 20% stake combined...11-12% at Fairfax and 6-7% at Chou Funds.  

 

Sam actually sat on the board of Overstock.com for a while, but Patrick was so erratic and had a hard time focusing on one thing that they eventually parted ways and sold their position.  I can't remember exactly when Francis sold out, but I believe he held on longer than Fairfax simply because he thought it was cheap.  

 

Me personally, I've known about Overstock.com almost as long as I've known about Fairfax or Amazon.com!  I've traded in and out of Overstock.com probably 5-6 times in the last 15 years...making money every time it got cheap and selling when it started to get pricey.  The best trade was in March 2020 when everyone was panicking and Overstock.com fell dramatically.  I bought a ton of shares at $2.99 and a ton of $7.50 LEAPs when it was around $5.  I made 8-10 times on the $2.99 stock and 15-20 times on the LEAPs. 

 

But I actually sold too early!  If I held on till it hit the high of $120 per share, I would have made 40 times on the stock and like 80-100 times on the LEAPs!  I was kicking myself after still making a ton of money!  But as a value investor, you are really stretching yourself ethically and strategically when things start to get speculative.  It's just not in my nature to hold on to something when valuations go crazy! 

 

Rule #1:  Don't Lose Money!  Rule #2:  Don't Forget Rule #1! 

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, rkbabang said:

The problem is they keep calling people who make a lot of money fast “the next Buffett”.  But that isn’t how Buffett did it himself.  The ones calling these people the next Warren Buffett don’t understand Warren Buffett. It isn’t a curse, just misapplied labeling.

 

Yup!  I remember at one AGM, Munger told the story of how a young fellow came up to him and thanked him for everything he's done and the lessons he's passed on. 

 

He then goes on to ask Munger:  "I really admire everything you've done, but is there any way I can do it faster?" 

 

Cheers!