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2022 returns thread


ourkid8

Returns For 2022  

145 members have voted

  1. 1. Returns For 2022

    • > -10%
      41
    • -10% to 0
      35
    • >0 to 10%
      37
    • >10% to 20%
      16
    • >20% to 40%
      12
    • >40%
      5


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2015: ~(20)

2016: 24.7

2017: 25.9

2018: (14.1)

2019: 25.5

2020: (4.80)

2021: 18.8

2022: (19.66)

 

Equity portfolio did reasonably well given largest positions were Fairfax, Exor, Altius, and Eurobank - all of which did reasonably well in comparison to major indices. Also had a lot of successful swing trading around commodity names like Stelco and Whitecap Resources.

 

Had quite a bit in short and intermediate term fixed income throughout the year which dramatically outperformed the S&P, but was still a drag on absolute performance. 

 

Hedges in shorting apple never really worked out for me. Switching to buying puts on Rivian worked, but had massively scaled back the short by that time so impact to aggregate performance was negligible. 

 

Biggest detractors which killed my annual return was the large exposure to crypto (~20% of portfolio at the beginning of the year) and heavy allocations to international equity funds while the USD appreciated dramatically. 

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+ 19% in the Roth IRAs

- 9% in the brokerage

 

Happy with what I own and at what prices through all my accounts so return wise I couldn't really care less this year. When the overall market is down I'm not concerned with measuring returns, I'm concerned with scooping up bargains until they hit rock bottom. 

 

Good luck to all! Here's to another year (hopefully) of bargain basement priced equities! 

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Pretty much even as I was down less than 1% this year but the caveat being I underperformed in 2021 (positive but...). Goals for 2023 include getting out of my own way and simplifying my process and investments/trades as priorities are shifting with a baby on the way! 

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9 minutes ago, Dean said:

Pretty much even as I was down less than 1% this year but the caveat being I underperformed in 2021 (positive but...). Goals for 2023 include getting out of my own way and simplifying my process and investments/trades as priorities are shifting with a baby on the way! 

Congrats. And 100% agree. That was my biggest objective in 2022. Wind down of the higher performing but time intensive trading activities and congregating in unique, durable long term investments. Rather spend the time with my kids. 

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32 minutes ago, Castanza said:

Happy with what I own and at what prices through all my accounts so return wise I couldn't really care less this year. When the overall market is down I'm not concerned with measuring returns, I'm concerned with scooping up bargains until they hit rock bottom. 

 

Very well said.

Likewise, I count/focus on quantity of shares in down years and their dollar value in up years.

 

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I'm down -31%. Nearly everything I own outside of BRK went down this year.... a lot. TECHY, FB, BABA, GOOG, AMZN, BYDDY. 

 

I have added more to AMZN and the other positions neutral. Was +80% last year, neither that figure nor this one reflected the businesses performance. I like the competitive positions of these companies and long term prospects. The Chinese government's regulations and crack down on BABA's cloud business and TECHY's video games certainly weakens the growth for both companies, this gives me pause and have not added.

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38.5% YOY growth in 2022 across my public and private investment portfolio. 

Key drivers of the growth are:

1)  Sold 100% of Tech at 5-10% below peak (long for 5-10 years) and invested the proceeds in private lands at a good discount. The land thesis comes down to strong demand/supply imbalances, real assets being true beneficiaries of inflation, and value addition plan as a catalyst.  

2) Bet big on Fairfax Financials, which reached 60% of public investment portfolio at one point, but since then sold some to buy Fairfax India (currently, 30% of my public investment portfolio) which I expect to return 50-100% in the next 2 years, with minimal downside. 

3) Smaller 5-10% size investments in Berkshire, PXD, ATCO (sold for some nice profit). 

 

What didn't go well:

Smaller 5-10% investments in Baba and Prosus.  Exited for loss. 

Edited by modiva
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1 hour ago, modiva said:

 

1)  Sold 100% of Tech at 5-10% below peak (long for 5-10 years) and invested the proceeds in private lands at a good discount. The land thesis comes down to strong demand/supply imbalances, real assets being true beneficiaries of inflation, and value addition plan as a catalyst.  

 

 

Could you tell us more about the private lands deal? Is this a private fund type of investment or are you actually buying the land directly? 

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@RedLion Each land is purchased by a private fund where I am an investor and a general partner.  A typical purchase is 500-2000 acres at a price point of $25-75M.  Not all land is equal. The due diligence and thesis to determine what makes some land a high potential (5x potential in 3-5 years), with minimal downside is key. I can share details of a recent deal privately if you like.  

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7 minutes ago, modiva said:

@RedLion Each land is purchased by a private fund where I am an investor and a general partner.  A typical purchase is 500-2000 acres at a price point of $25-75M.  Not all land is equal. The due diligence and thesis to determine what makes some land a high potential (5x potential in 3-5 years), with minimal downside is key. I can share details of a recent deal privately if you like.  

@modiva Love to learn more about this as well. 

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Cal Year USD gain outperf vs SP500 TR pre tax GBP gain Lowball value USD gain
2016 24.2% 12.2% 54.2% 19.1%
2017 24.8% 3.0% 14.1% 12.7%
2018 25.3% 29.7% 33.0% 47.1%
2019 18.0% -13.5% 13.6% 3.8%
2020 -3.4% -21.8% -6.0% 32.4%
2021 79.6% 50.9% 81.4% 34.2%
2022 24.1% 42.2% 39.8% 38.4%
cagr 25.6% 14.1% 30.2% 26.0%

 

Started the year fully invested. Realised some early gains and ended up with a lot of cash. Also did OK with some merger arbitrage, especially compared to a falling market. Took some cash out too to have enough cash to pay living expenses and some taxes on last year's realised gains. Went fully invested in Q3 and made some more gains realised in late November. Ended the year with almost 29% cash. A lot of my pricing-based decisions, turned out to look like good market timing.

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Down almost 40% in 2022. 
 

My takeaways:

1. Lost my way on some speculative tech companies. Luckily I saw the error in my ways and got out fairly quickly before it got too bad.

 

2. Built a very big position in Chinese tech - Alibaba and Pinduoduo in 2022. Pretty much bought every month on the way down the cliff. I feel fairly confident about this over the long term. PDD is a big gain overall as of today, wish I could say the same about BABA:) Was hoping to also build a position in Tencent but this brings me to the next insight…

 

3. I think I learned the one most important thing with investing (and also in life) Like any lesson, it’s something obvious - but unless it it tattooed in your mind it is easy to miss even if known. 
 

What matters most is being able to be more confident when times get tougher - in a panic - when you’re really tested. When WW3 is a possibility.

 

I remember holding some tech companies, sold those fairly quickly.
 

Even with Pinduoduo - I thought market was being irrational and kept buying 2 year LEAPs monthly. But when it got under $30 I realized I didn’t have the confidence to go even more all in. I can’t say I have unique insights into Chinese tech aside from taking advantage of market bias. 

 

But I do with two companies that I’ve been investing in for more than a decade - Simpson and Autodesk. I know their unique competitive advantages and I’m in the field and have some insight when they might lose that advantage. This year I went even more all in on these two. I think -and also hope- they might go lower. I keep reading and watching interviews looking for ideas but realize these two ideas are all I need for the next few decades and beyond. And it’s now just a matter of managing regular investments in those two.

 

I’ll still keep researching 🙂

 


 

 

 

 

 

Edited by dpetrescu
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-3.74% which is disappointing given my fairly large exposure at the beginning of the year to commodities. They all preformed well but were more than offset by my large positions in Liberty Broadband and Liberty SiriusXM. Activity wise for the year just did add-on investments in Liberty Sirius in the first half of the year, along with sales of Scorpio Tankers and Liberty Broadband in the second half of the year.

 

Big winners: ATUSF, GENGF, MO dividend

Big loser: LBRDK/A, LSXMA

 

2022: -3.75%

2021: 19.9%

2020: 12.0%

2019: 33.0%

2018: -15.5%

2017: 35.0%

2016: 17.3%

 

Over 50% of the portfolio is currently sitting in ibonds, short term tbills, and money market funds. So well positioned to strike if a fat pitch gets hung out over the plate.

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  • 1 month later...

Took me awhile because had to import things to Quicken across many accounts (which is a bit of a pain).

 

2022: -12.8% IRR

 

Roughly in line with S&P which looking back was quite a remarkable feat given coming into the year was 1/3 growthy EM stocks which got marked down by 1/3 during the year. Thank you Fairfax Financial (a position which I very fortunately added to in early November).

 

I continue to tilt very heavily non US (relative to the index which is ~60% US) for the diversification.

Edited by maplevalue
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  • 10 months later...

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