How Bad Will The Recession Be in 2023?

[Parsad]

Now that markets have rebounded their way out of the Bear Market of 2022, what are your recession expectations for 2023?

 

Personally, with the way the yield curve is inverted so steeply, I suspect we are in for a deep recession in 2023.  I'm still going to be buying stuff when it's cheap and selling when it's closer to intrinsic value, but the recession that was expected for 2022 will be coming in 2023. 

 

Cheers!

[WayWardCloud]

OK I'll play

 

No recession in the US

Stagnation in Europe

Something nasty in China

[Gregmal]

Heading into 2018 and we were tapped out and tax cuts provided the final savings boost before rates went up and destroyed the market as we had a deep recession long overdue. 2020 covid was gonna produce a Great Depression. 2021 mighta been the first year there wasn't widespread talk about recessions but some folks still sat around following the science but claiming a new and more lethal variant was right around the corner. 2022 has been recession and inflation. It seems that every year we need to have something to make headlines with; and when there isnt anything special....the default is just to call for a recession. Whatever it is, the world will go on and so will the opportunity to make money investing. 

[Spooky]

The contrarian in me is saying no recession since everyone and their dog is saying it is going to happen with such certainty.

[Gregmal]

Don’t forget we also had a recession this year and they just changed the definition and denied it…

[Longnose]

I can tell you that all the major retailers right now are shitting the bed... 

[competitive-advantage]

I don’t know when it’s going to happend and it makes no difference to my decisions 

[mattee2264]

I think the recent market rebound is consistent with the idea that the recession is a 2023 rather than a 2022 story.

 

The 2022 story was about the inflation shock and policy shock from aggressive rate hikes. Those shocks are dissipating as the Fed is signalling a slower pace of rate hikes and inflation has clearly peaked. So with the market being myopic it is not surprising that we are in another bull market (Dow is up 20% from the 52w low). 

 

And I think this V-shaped recovery set up that followed the COVID shock and the 2022 inflation shock is lulling markets into a false sense of security.

 

If there is a bad recession there won't be the same stimulus there was during COVID. And that means there is unlikely to be a V shaped recovery so the economy will probably stagnate for a few years and if corporate earnings fall 20-30% and stay depressed that will weigh heavily on sentiment and markets will be less inclined to look through to the pivot and recovery. 

 

As for what will make the recession bad I think it will be a combination of the following factors:

-Delayed impact of the interest rate hikes 

-Continuing supply chain disruptions especially if COVID makes a comeback and only first world countries are adequately vaccinate and the Ukraine war likely to drag on into 2023

-Delayed adjustments to cost of living. People take a while to adjust their spending habits and cut back and most of the wage increases will go through in 2023 which will hurt margins and might prompt more job cuts. And people worrying about a recession results in more precautionary saving and less spending which creates a self fulfilling prophecy

-Trade linkages. USA is well positioned but Europe definitely has a bad recession on the cards due to Ukraine war and energy crisis and China is still messing about with zero COVID policy and S&P 500 companies get half their sales from the ROW so even if the USA economy holds up corporate earnings may not. 

-Energy prices. Supply is still tight and while there will be some demand destruction in a recession you would expect OPEC to tighten and the strategic reserve releases cannot go on forever 

 

[dealraker]

It seems most invesment houses are out now with recession in early 23 then rebound.   Doesn't mean they don't have it right, but the trend for that prediction is growing it seems.  

[Spekulatius]

9 minutes ago, dealraker said:

It seems most invesment houses are out now with recession in early 23 then rebound.   Doesn't mean they don't have it right, but the trend for that prediction is growing it seems.  

Bloomberg gives it a 100% chance of recession in an article based on their economic forecast. Other forecasters are at around 2/3 chance of recession. I think the consensus view at this point is that we will get a recession in 2023.

[Spooky]

 

 

Looks like GDP growth in the US has been revised up from the last quarter from 2.6% to 2.9% annualized. Not too shabby. So far it also looks like all the tech layoffs in the headlines have either not made it into the labour data yet or they aren't that significant in the grand scheme of things.

 

1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:

Trade linkages. USA is well positioned but Europe definitely has a bad recession on the cards due to Ukraine war and energy crisis and China is still messing about with zero COVID policy and S&P 500 companies get half their sales from the ROW so even if the USA economy holds up corporate earnings may not.

 

An interesting data point that is outside the common narrative is that trade between the US and Europe has become larger now than trade between US and China. Everyone wants to talk about deglobalization but I don't find it persuasive - trade benefits both parties so the countries that continue to engage internationally will leave those that don't behind.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-europe-trade-booms-as-old-allies-draw-closer-11668914679

 

I think Bridgewater's view about the possible risk of a second round of tightening makes sense to me - the economy still seems quite strong.

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Spooky

[Xerxes]

Either no recession or a deep recession. 
Given that consensus is “shallow recession”

[Sweet]

Haven’t we had a recession already?

 

If I was to guess, no recession in 2023 in the US.

 

Widespread recession in Europe.

 

 

[Libs]

https://thepoliticalinsider.com/report-41-of-small-businesses-cant-pay-rent-this-month/

 

This is hard to believe - 41% of small businesses can't pay rent?

[LC]

I went with 'deep recession'

 

Why?

 

I dunno.

[dealraker]

My worthless guess is that the investors are one glance away from stomping the panic button if and when something triggers fear of lower stock prices that last a while.  Recession gets wings then.

[Gregmal]

I hope folk see how this all works. Just as we move on from hyper inflation fears, now we gotta have something else to obsess over and drive fear about. Not much? Ah, recession works. Now fret about recessions endlessly til a new topic comes up. 

[dealraker]

Being in the observation but no action bunch I find great enjoyment in forecasting...but of course doing nothing about it.

[Gamecock-YT]

Depends if governments want to take their medicine now or kick the can down the road as far as they can. 

[james22]

21 hours ago, competitive-advantage said:

I don’t know when it’s going to happend and it makes no difference to my decisions 

 

Retired, I need to decide when to sell to meet my 2023 expenses.

 

Hard to sell BRK before I have to when it's still undervalued, but really wouldn't want to have to sell if it fell back to its low (or dip into my cash bucket).

 

I'll probably hedge and withdraw half the year's expenses in January (assuming little change) and hope any recession will occur early in the year. 

[Gregmal]

Jobs market seems to keep telling the recession to fuck off. 

[dealraker]

I'm out and about here in central NC kind of relentlessly and I simply can not fathom how the economy here could be any better than it is.  Blame somebody or paise them...or say it is random...but things are thriving here.  Our builders supply and millwork haven't yet felt any downturn.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I'm out and about here in central NC kind of relentlessly and I simply can not fathom how the economy here could be any better than it is.  Blame somebody or paise them...or say it is random...but things are thriving here.  Our builders supply and millwork haven't yet felt any downturn.

Same in NJ, and same in FL. Its an institutional level war being waged on main street; this attempt to derail it. This sort of economic health must be stopped! 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Jobs market seems to keep telling the recession to fuck off. 

 

Jobs are the last thing to go - but will confirm the recession once here. Watch the leading indicators which have been falling for the last 8-months straight. 

 

Coincident and lagging indicators have basically fallen to the neutral stance so we'll likely see them turn down in coming months too. 

 

Everything I've been concerned about for the last 9-12 months is happening. Corporate profits are starting to fall, margins are starting to contract, consumers appear to be tapping out, and the multiples at the index level are still very high going into that environment. 

 

You can pick your spots - some stocks will do fine (like trading around my commodity names, or Fairfax and Eurobank this year), but a receding tide will lower most boats. Be quick to take profits and have some duration now that it pays as a hedge. 

[Parsad]

1 in 6 American households are behind on utility bills!  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-tsunami-shutoffs-20-million-173000860.html