Russia-Ukrainian War

[Pelagic]

5 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

I also thought it was pro-russian troops from Donbass but 0:34 they are saying how they were surrounded in Sumy. Russian troops encricled Sumy but not the other way around. Very confusing video and hard to prove authenticity.

 

Ukrainians executed a pretty strong counterattack into the Sumy region to relieve the city. Depending where they were they could have felt surrounded caught between the city's defenders and Ukrainian forces pushing to relieve it. Again, regardless of which side they're pretty clearly conscripts with little information of the bigger picture.

 

Which is something we're likely to see a lot more of in the coming weeks/months. Russia is going to look to minimize public casualties and try to use troops from occupied regions, mercenaries from places like Syria and the CAR, Wagner group etc. to obfuscate the real cost of the war to the Russian public.

[mcliu]

39 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

The west will continue to support Ukraine because they are not so stupid.  Those that are likely to swing, they are already sold. Let's let it unfold. 

A more cynical view, maybe the West wants Ukraine to be Russia's Vietnam. Ukraine is a proxy war and the US/NATO will fight the Russians until the last Ukrainian. Ukraine gets totally destroyed, but the West will have a big win over Russia.

 

8 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

Imagine some Ukrainian guy loads a truck full of fertilizer/diesel and somehow makes it to Moscow and lets it loose...would they be justified? Maybe there are no civilian casualties, maybe there are. How would that change global perception?

Isn't that called Terrorism?

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Libs said:

https://faridaily.substack.com/p/now-were-going-to-fck-them-all-whats?s=r

 

Fascinating article. Russian elites are angry at the west - not Putin. Forget about regime change, folks....

This is the problem with sanctions. The elites are fine and regular people suffer. When people feel under attack they rally around the govt. NK developed a nuke under sanctions/starvation for decades. Russia is far more capable and already has far more destructive weapons. What's the purpose of driving Russians into a corner?

 

In my opinion, the best way for the West to defend itself is to invest in its own people, infrastructure and capabilities so that it far far surpasses its rivals, instead of trying to police/invade/coup/sanction around the world.

[no_free_lunch]

7 hours ago, mcliu said:

A more cynical view, maybe the West wants Ukraine to be Russia's Vietnam. Ukraine is a proxy war and the US/NATO will fight the Russians until the last Ukrainian. Ukraine gets totally destroyed, but the West will have a big win over Russia.

 

Isn't that called Terrorism?

Your cynicism doesn't matter. It's like saying Elon Musk doesn't care about global warming, he's just doing it to get rich. So?  It's the right thing to do.

 

If it didn't appear that Ukraine wanted and is actually desperate for weapons I might agree with you.  Given their requests and their success to this point it is very elitist to say that we know better.

 

I agree with you on sanctions but only because they aren't working. Until we can cut oil it's mostly for show. 

Edited April 1, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

@no_free_lunch I think the sanction are working, but it takes time to kick in. The oil is hard to sanction, but the European can and will reduce depends from NG. It just takes time and doing this all at once would hurt the Europeans just as much than the Russian, so it’s not a good tradeoff.

The technology part of the sanction is working and there have been news here and there that military complex is starting to hurt. Their airplanes, helicopters tanks all function with western parts and electronics and at some their areas running out. It’s probably already happening because supply chains tend to have parts for maybe 1-2 month but once they are gone, they have are done until they can replace them perhaps with some chines stuff, but that’s not always plug and play, if they even can get it. I think in a few month, the Sowjet economy will be short so many things that even the military complex will stop functioning. Maybe not quick enough to stop this war but for sure will prevent them from a redo.

[Blugolds]

11 hours ago, mcliu said:

 

Isn't that called Terrorism?

 

Thats my point, it would change global perception of the Ukrainians. 

 

What constitutes terrorism? Suppose the truck in Moscow doesnt kill civilians, just damages infrastructure...still terrorism? Suppose it does kill civilians...is that then terrorism? 

 

Lets change the diesel/fertilizer to a warhead and rather than delivering it via truck, lets propel it with a rocket...still terrorism? 

 

Send the warhead to a hospital in Moscow that kills civilians...still Terrorism? 

 

In war...is terrorism against terrorism justified? 

 

I guess it depends on what your definition of terrorism is. 

 

Department of Defense Dictionary of Military Terms defines terrorism as: The calculated use of unlawful violence or threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear; intended to coerce or to intimidate governments or societies in the pursuit of goals that are generally political, religious, or ideological.

 

The unlawful use of violence and intimidation, especially against civilians, in the pursuit of political aims.

 

Based on this definition....I see only one side of this "special military operation" as terrorists. 

[no_free_lunch]

There are reports , from multiple sources, that Gazprom has started to shut gas supply to Germany and presumably other countries as well.  I haven't seen anything about it in MSM so I would say still not verified. It's big news if true.  Seems Putin may be willing to sanction himself. 

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

There are reports , from multiple sources, that Gazprom has started to shut gas supply to Germany and presumably other countries as well.  I haven't seen anything about it in MSM so I would say still not verified. It's big news if true.  Seems Putin may be willing to sanction himself. 

 

Was trying to triangulate it with other sources too, but first read about it here 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline

[Blugolds]

35 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

 

Was trying to triangulate it with other sources too, but first read about it here 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline

 

If thats true, sounds like a game of Chicken..."you're not breaking up with me, Im breaking up with you!"

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link.  I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind.  Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. 

 

 SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse

 

— Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade"

 

https://t.me/svezhesti/43717

 

[Pelagic]

I think we're going to see a dramatic shift in public opinion as the western world starts to see some of the photos coming out of Bucha and other cities northwest of Kyiv that have been recently liberated. Buying Russian gas, or any other concessions to Russia, is going to be a politically untenable position when there's significant evidence of Russian troops mass executing Ukrainian civilians who had their hands bound.

 

Civilian deaths that up to this point might have been rationalized as collateral damage are now very clearly murder. I'd be surprised if there isn't also strong public support for military intervention. 

[shhughes1116]

8 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

I think we're going to see a dramatic shift in public opinion as the western world starts to see some of the photos coming out of Bucha and other cities northwest of Kyiv that have been recently liberated. Buying Russian gas, or any other concessions to Russia, is going to be a politically untenable position when there's significant evidence of Russian troops mass executing Ukrainian civilians who had their hands bound.

 

Civilian deaths that up to this point might have been rationalized as collateral damage are now very clearly murder. I'd be surprised if there isn't also strong public support for military intervention. 

There won’t be direct military intervention by NATO countries.    
 

You are already seeing the effects of those pictures.  US is mobilizing former eastern bloc equipment - upgraded T72s and BMPs - for delivery to Ukraine.  Ukraine asked for 100 tanks and 400 APVs.  Looks like they are going to get that.  That’s the mobile units they’ll need to push East.  
 

The MANPADS plus AFVs and drones will make the Ukrainian mobile units tough to beat.  Mix in some real-time NATO ISR plus fresh Ukrainian infantry, and I think the Ujrianians have better than 50-50 odds of booting the orcs from the eastern portion of Ukraine.  

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Nwoodmab, thanks for the link.  I saw it on a telegram channel and then zerohesge as well. It's a pro Russian account so take it with that in mind.  Could be us playing into psyops too. However often the stuff I see on this channel front runs reality so they have credibility in my mind. 

 

 SVEZHESTI: "Russian gas pipeline Yamal-Europe starts reverse

 

— Gazprom has stopped deliveries of Russian gas to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, and today the volumes began to flow in the opposite direction, according to network operator Gascade"

 

https://t.me/svezhesti/43717

 

Little bit of a backdrop here:

 

Ukraine doesn't buy Russian gas from Russia. They are buying it from Poland and Slovakia. Still Russian gas though. The pipeline in question - Yamal - is the primary feeder that ultimately goes back to Ukraine. This pipeline has been shutting down since 3/8. Russia claimed technical difficulties. The remaining pipelines into Europe are doing just fine. For now.

[Spekulatius]

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now  to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 
 

My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now, to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 

Latvia has a storage facility that has 2 years worth of gas for just Latvia (and around 1 year worth of gas for all of the baltic states). As long as they can secure regular shipments of LNG, they will be OK. There is also a bi-directional pipeline between Poland and Latvia (GIPL) so they can always get Polish (Russian) gas in the event of a disruption. But to put it in perspective, 3 Baltic states combined consume 15 BCM per year. Europe's total consumption is 400 BCM. 

 

As of today, there is very little spare capacity at regassification facilities are operating near their limits. Germany has none and the earliest estimate is 2024. GLNG is a way to play this shortage. EQNR will continue to be a winner here. 

[no_free_lunch]

11 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Little bit of a backdrop here:

 

Ukraine doesn't buy Russian gas from Russia. They are buying it from Poland and Slovakia. Still Russian gas though. The pipeline in question - Yamal - is the primary feeder that ultimately goes back to Ukraine. This pipeline has been shutting down since 3/8. Russia claimed technical difficulties. The remaining pipelines into Europe are doing just fine. For now.

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification.

 

Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

[Spekulatius]

36 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Thanks, I appreciate the clarification.

 

Since you are in the loop I wonder how much of the NG is for heat vs electricity generation. Can Germany offset this by restarting their nuclear plants?

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry).

Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

[SharperDingaan]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now  to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. 
 

My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

 

The weapons don't have to be heavier.

The Belgorod strike was a proof of concept, lots of fire/smoke but relatively little damage.

Were Ukraine serious, it would have also used drones dropping mines; both magnetic and AP - adding choppers just stirs the pot and drive up the loss. Today it was a refinery, tomorrow its your tank park? 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-news-chernobyl-belgorod-oil-depot-attack/

https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0654.pdf

 

SD

[Xerxes]

 

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like.  Still I feel Germany can do more and perhaps they will.  Even anything will help, it doesn't have to be quitting cold turkey. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

Edited April 3, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

5 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Thanks spek. It's a tough situation , I feel for Germany as this can affect them as much as Russia. Kind of a game of chicken feels like.  Still I feel Germany can do .ire and perhaps they will.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-must-pay-war-crimes-bucha-germany-says-2022-04-03/

I have seen the news but don’t see the NG ban happening. It’s just asking for too much too quickly. Longer term, the absence of relatively cheap NG will have a lasting impact on some industries, especially, the basic chemical industry like BASF, which needs cheap NG and power for competitiveness.

 

The German defense minister Lambrecht should ask herself what she can do to help out Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for some weapon that Germany should be able to supply, but so far the aid has been limited l unlike the UK for example, which has provided extensive help.

 

If we want to help the Ukraine to win their territory back, we need to supply them with weapons that are not just defensive, but allow them to gain more control over the air (advanced air defense systems), perhaps cruise missiles to deter ships and the launch pads of the russian cruise missiles and the airplanes they have been asking for.

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry).

Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

This. Also, baltics are a large electricity and oil importers (from Russia). It will be a while before Europe can really wean itself off Russian energy. 

[Xerxes]

 

[Stuart D]

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-power-hungry-podcast/id1519850086?i=1000553518465
 

Great overview of the Russia/Europe gas situation.

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

This. Also, baltics are a large electricity and oil importers (from Russia). It will be a while before Europe can really wean itself off Russian energy. 

Sanctions are not about feeling good or moral high ground. They need to be designed to hurt on the receiving end, and not undermine the own economy, which would be very detrimental for Europe.

 

For example, German defense minister Lambrecht asked for a boycott on Oil, NG and coal deliveries. Worrying about energy supplies isn't her job however. Instead she should ask herself what she can do within the defense department she is leading to help out Ukraine. Based on what I am hearing and reading, she has some work do do. if anything, this bucha massacre should make getting weapons to ukraine easier.