Russia-Ukrainian War

[Gregmal]

The truth shall set you free! Now we’re getting somewhere!

 

of course the US is ok with civilian casualties and Ukrainian and Russians, innocents alike, getting slaughtered. That’s been the joke the whole time. We sit here and listen to these self serving fucks virtue signal and talk about how they’re “doing so much” and “standing with Ukraine”…while they openly ALLOW this as long as it doesn’t go beyond a certain level. Just keep it to a whisper over there folks! It’s all bullshit and so many people walk around in ignorance proudly thinking we re all on team Good Guys. Even senile dementia man has stated, pretty much word for word, as long as they don’t do anything too major, like use nukes, it’s ok. 

 

[Xerxes]

For clarity, I will take United States everyday over any and all alternatives. That country and its idea have done far more good than any other superpower at the peak of their prime.

 

But I am also fair and have no problem in calling out BS when I see it (or at least try to be)

[Xerxes]

59 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I wouldn't consider Lemay a war criminal. He was responding to a military attack.  The rules of engagement were set by japan in that case. 

 

You are implying a racial motivation but the same tactics used by Lemay in Japan were implemented by Britain against Germany. 

 

I won't touch Westmoreland for the reason that I don't know enough about the situation. 

 

 

As I said in my other post, few pages ago, United States would have no (ethical) problem droping 20 atomic bombs (if it had 20) on Japan until the Japanese race was fully eradicated, or unconditional surrender tendered. It is U.S. that set unconditional surrender as the basis of negotiation. Lemay had no problem setting napalms in Tokyo, burning 200,000 Japanese alive. Not that the Japanese were any better. The point is there are no saints anywhere. We will do what we think is needed and write up the narrative after.

 

Few years later, McArthur was planning to drop 40-50 atomic bombs in Manchuria to knock out the supply lines feeding North Korea, and probably would have if he was not fired by Harry Truman. 

 

In Vietnam (a small country), they dropped more tonnage than what was dropped in Japan and Germany (or so the legend goes). 

 

---- 

do you believe United States would do any of the above against the dominant non-Asian rival in the hearland of Europe. The war cry at home in WW2 to the very end was "Kill the Japs", even as the bulk of U.S. war effort was spend against Germany. That story sold better.

 

Lemay, Westmoreland and others like them at the end of the day were instruments of death unleashed by the White House.

 

PS: for clarity, the B-52 bombing runs were ran directly by LBJ from the White House and not controlled directly by Westmoreland himself. Nonetheless, he was the ruling “overlord” upholding a corrupt Saigon regime in the south, fighting a war for who knows what. Sounds a bit like Russia in Ukraine … which actually sadly makes more sense than U.S. in Vietnam 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2022 by Xerxes

[RichardGibbons]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

Exactly, politicians & countries are all the same. There's no morality in geopolitics, only interests. And the winner writes the history.

 

Interesting--there's few people today who will say that they sincerely believe that Hitler did nothing wrong. It's neat to hear from such a person, and gain an understanding of how they've come to adopt such a worldview.

[Blugolds11]

 

[mcliu]

6 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

Interesting--there's few people today who will say that they sincerely believe that Hitler did nothing wrong.

Yeah exactly, it should be obvious to anyone alive today that Hitler did some evil shit. Which is why I think it’s a mistake that media outlets like CNN and PBS allowed neo-Nazis on their shows just because they’re on our side fighting Russians now.

[SharperDingaan]

9 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I don’t believe Biden got emotional and let loose the “Putin must go”. He is smelling blood and like any other good politician he is positioning for that eventuality … and working on this re-election campaign at the same time. 
 

the job was left to his state secretary to give the formal government position.  

 

It was a state sanctioned contract on Putin's termination, and all parties fully understand that.

The communist party is free to continue ruling Russia, but it does so without Putin - their decision as to whether Putin remains alive or not.  Bounty for the hit, and relaxation of sanctions once it's done. No different to the attempted WWII assassination of Hitler ,,, but this time, with no mistakes.

 

The same doctrine applying to China and the US.

Leader and party are not the same thing, and there needs to be a 'correcting' mechanism. The US has elections every 4 years, Russia and China just do it a little differently.  

 

The same doctrine ALSO applying to the global dictator community.

No interference if within your own borders. Resistance if you interfere outside of your borders. Term limit, behave, and it is hands off. 3rd strike against and you are terminated.

 

The Godfathers impose the rules, and the capos follow.

Free reign within the rails, electrocution outside the rails.

 

Capitalism at multiple levels 

 

SD  

 

[Xerxes]

16 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

It was a state sanctioned contract on Putin's termination, and all parties fully understand that.

The communist party is free to continue ruling Russia, but it does so without Putin - their decision as to whether Putin remains alive or not.  Bounty for the hit, and relaxation of sanctions once it's done. No different to the attempted WWII assassination of Hitler ,,, but this time, with no mistakes.

 

The same doctrine applying to China and the US.

Leader and party are not the same thing, and there needs to be a 'correcting' mechanism. The US has elections every 4 years, Russia and China just do it a little differently.  

 

The same doctrine ALSO applying to the global dictator community.

No interference if within your own borders. Resistance if you interfere outside of your borders. Term limit, behave, and it is hands off. 3rd strike against and you are terminated.

 

The Godfathers impose the rules, and the capos follow.

Free reign within the rails, electrocution outside the rails.

 

Capitalism at multiple levels 

 

SD  

 

West has no problem dealing with mass murderers (Mao, Stalin etc). Issue is when the mass murderer becomes a toxic asset, (I.e. when the lack of positive optics outweighs the very long negative tangible ledger of bad deeds.)
 

Putin has reached that level by himself walking into it. 
 

I am afraid aside for the security establishment (which is as toxic as him) there is no power base strong enough to do a palace coup. The security establishment owns Russia, much like the Revolutionary Guards in Iran. The sanctions will only increase their power. 
 

so i am of the mind that Putin will be around still for a long while. Even if he “retires” he will be the paramount leader. The perpetual system that provides to the security establishment needs him as much he needs them. 
 

Going after oligarch and playboys was symbolic but at the end they are marginals. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

Interesting--there's few people today who will say that they sincerely believe that Hitler did nothing wrong. It's neat to hear from such a person, and gain an understanding of how they've come to adopt such a worldview.

 

As mentioned before, it's not about right or wrong. Of course Hitler was evil. So is the Saudi regime that we so happily supply weapons to and buy oil from. 

 

But US foreign policy isn't based on right or wrong - it's based on "what can you do for me." If you're a heinous, evil dictator, we might even put you in power and keep you there if  provide us with some strategic advantage and we'll use propoganda to keep the American populace complacent. 

And the moment they stop being useful is the moment we use moral/ethical arguments to remove them. 

 

While Western Europe, Canada, and the US may believe the world is a better place for all of our meddling, I imagine there's a large portion of global population in non-white countries that are all tired of their democracies and economies being undermined to force subjugation to US and its policy directives

[Spekulatius]

The Lindy principle applies to Dictators too. Putin has been around for a while, which means he is good at staying alive and my guess is he will hang around longer. He also has quite a bit of support from the population still, at least amongst the older people, who grew up when the Soviet union was still around. The younger crowd not so much. The 1420 channel has great interviews giving a view on how Russian's think. The people younger than 30 are not all that different from Millennials here.

https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel

[SharperDingaan]

Agreed re the security establishment.

However the security establishment is an arm of the party, the spy master is old, not on his game anymore, and in the way of the advancement of ambitious people. Still useful for now; but as the asset value falls and the liability rises, it rapidly closes in on 'cut bait' time. Doubtful he passes away peacefully in bed.

 

This is Russia; there will not be a power vacuum, and transition will be swift/brutal.

At the practical level, there will be multiple near-simultaneous terminations; executors will not be able to remain in Russia, and it will primarily be their families that benefit - not them. Lot of body bags coming home, creating people with little to lose, and too many lit matches to put out. Clock ticks down instead.

 

Ultimately, Russia will resolve Putin 'internally'; the when/how still to be determined. 

All that we can really do, is hold some binary options on a Russian recovery.

And trust in the long-term survival of the Communist Party!

 

Seems a reasonable bet.

 

SD

[Spekulatius]

Well Putin is not a communist at all, as far as I know that party is pretty much dead in Russia.

 

On a related note, the head line that Russia will reduce the assaults  around Kyiv after they have been  on the defensive there anyways  could come right from a German Wochenschau newsreel  ca 1944. They will probably shift to Donetsk area where they still had some success recently.

 

I also doubt that this war comes to a conclusion very soon. Putin / Russia is still moving fresh troops from elsewhere into this meatgrinder as we speak. They also got the Wagner (great name) mercenaries in the backhand. I am not sure Putin want's to spent his private army though, as it is needed for insurance.

[Viking]

5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

As mentioned before, it's not about right or wrong. Of course Hitler was evil. So is the Saudi regime that we so happily supply weapons to and buy oil from. 

 

But US foreign policy isn't based on right or wrong - it's based on "what can you do for me." If you're a heinous, evil dictator, we might even put you in power and keep you there if  provide us with some strategic advantage and we'll use propoganda to keep the American populace complacent. 

And the moment they stop being useful is the moment we use moral/ethical arguments to remove them. 

 

While Western Europe, Canada, and the US may believe the world is a better place for all of our meddling, I imagine there's a large portion of global population in non-white countries that are all tired of their democracies and economies being undermined to force subjugation to US and its policy directives

All countries are basically the same when it comes to foreign policy: they largely do what is in their strategic national interest. And the bigger the stick the more forceful they can be with execution. It has been this way for all eternity.
 

And today, when times are good we also get lots of pontificating in the West (human rights, rights of women, democracy etc); when times are bad this tends to move to the back burner. 

[Xerxes]

[SharperDingaan]

A man in Moscow buys a newspaper, glances at the front page, and throws it away.

He does the same thing every day.

 

Eventually the seller snaps "Why DO you do that?"

'I'm just checking for an obituary"

 

"But obituaries aren't on the front page!"

"The one I'm looking for will be."

 

 

With jokes like these in circulation, one has to think there's also a healthy underground betting line.

Obviously, the knives are lining up 

 

SD

Edited March 29, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

A man in Moscow buys a newspaper, glances at the front page, and throws it away.

He does the same thing every day.

 

Eventually the seller snaps "Why DO you do that?"

'I'm just checking for an obituary"

 

"But obituaries aren't on the front page!"

"The one I'm looking for will be."

 

 

With jokes like these in circulation, one has to think there's also a healthy underground betting line.

Obviously, the knives are lining up 

 

SD

SD, I heard this joke for the first time almost 40 years ago, when I was a little boy and the General Secretaries of the Communist party of the USSR were dying every couple of years.  

[SharperDingaan]

22 minutes ago, Dinar said:

SD, I heard this joke for the first time almost 40 years ago, when I was a little boy and the General Secretaries of the Communist party of the USSR were dying every couple of years.  

 

And that is its charm .... devastating, and hard to trace where it came from.

 

SD

 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

As mentioned before, it's not about right or wrong. Of course Hitler was evil. So is the Saudi regime that we so happily supply weapons to and buy oil from. 

 

But US foreign policy isn't based on right or wrong - it's based on "what can you do for me." If you're a heinous, evil dictator, we might even put you in power and keep you there if  provide us with some strategic advantage and we'll use propoganda to keep the American populace complacent. 

And the moment they stop being useful is the moment we use moral/ethical arguments to remove them. 

 

While Western Europe, Canada, and the US may believe the world is a better place for all of our meddling, I imagine there's a large portion of global population in non-white countries that are all tired of their democracies and economies being undermined to force subjugation to US and its policy directives

It’s also public opinion and pressure. The Ukraine war is the most televised war in history and there is social media, Tik Tok (the Chechen actually have a battalion there that is called Tik Tok battalion. Ukraine plays thr Underdog well. Then  affects people that are much like us ( white people). Do the same thing in a Dschungel in Africa and it’s won’t that big of a deal. There will be some articles in the Washington Post etc but that could be it.

 

In a way that has something to do politics but also how humans are wired.

 

[Blugolds11]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s also public opinion and pressure. The Ukraine war is the most televised war in history and there is social media, Tik Tok (the Chechen actually have a battalion there that is called Tik Tok battalion. Ukraine plays thr Underdog well. Then  affects people that are much like us ( white people). Do the same thing in a Dschungel in Africa and it’s won’t that big of a deal. There will be some articles in the Washington Post etc but that could be it.

 

In a way that has something to do politics but also how humans are wired.

 

 

Agreed, how relatable are the victims? White, Christian, English speakers are easier to relate to, human nature. How easy is it for someone to visualize themselves in that situtation.

 

I have watched most of the 1420 Youtube channel videos as well as some from Ukraine. One from Ukraine called "Pavlo from Ukraine" I have watched since he started, almost a year ago, day to day life, trips around the country etc I liked it as Im an avid traveler and enjoy new perspectives on how people live day-to-day in other parts of the world. He has some newer live streams discussing his current situation, not as horrible as others in the country as I think he lives in the Western side, I think he said several hundred kilometers from the capital but can still see the stress on his face, earlier videos could hear sirens and explosions also his parents are in Kiev and wont leave. 

 

As for MSM of any country, with the prevalence of social media now, Youtube, TikTok, SNAP etc its much harder to control the entire population, the older folks getting all info from CNN or FOX types in any country are still susceptible but when the majority of your info is coming from an average joe actually on the ground in the location instantaneously, that is harder to stifle. I was watching real time snaps from Ukraine as it was happening when this started of trains, evacuations, life in the subway tunnels etc. There are now ZERO snaps to watch coming out of Ukraine.

[no_free_lunch]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well Putin is not a communist at all, as far as I know that party is pretty much dead in Russia.

 

On a related note, the head line that Russia will reduce the assaults  around Kyiv after they have been  on the defensive there anyways  could come right from a German Wochenschau newsreel  ca 1944. They will probably shift to Donetsk area where they still had some success recently.

 

I also doubt that this war comes to a conclusion very soon. Putin / Russia is still moving fresh troops from elsewhere into this meatgrinder as we speak. They also got the Wagner (great name) mercenaries in the backhand. I am not sure Putin want's to spent his private army though, as it is needed for insurance.

Wagner pre announced the invasion by tweeting "Are you ready?" an hour or two before it kicked off. They also put out combat footage choreographed to metal.  Everything I see makes me believe those guys are pure evil.   What do I know but to confirm your thoughts I have also heard it's got the deepest ties to Putin.

Edited March 30, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[SharperDingaan]

The problem with mercenaries is that they work for the highest bidder, and the payer needs to periodically keep changing them. While the payer is the stronger man, they are a useful tool; when the payer is weakening .... the puppet master risks becoming the puppet.

 

The Wagner Group WWII equivalent is the German SS. Yet despite incredible power, and effective control over Hitler, it still didn't work out so well for the SS. The organization broke up and scattered, a few were hanged, and a great many others met Nazi-hunters in the night.

 

Lot of nations have their military equivalents, and all are very good. Attrition and bribery can be a bitch.

Putin will not be czar 'forever', and it is increasingly becoming a time-limited engagement. 

 

This is what options were designed for.

 Dead money, until suddenly it isn't.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

The problem with mercenaries is that they work for the highest bidder, and the payer needs to periodically keep changing them. While the payer is the stronger man, they are a useful tool; when the payer is weakening .... the puppet master risks becoming the puppet.

 

The Wagner Group WWII equivalent is the German SS. Yet despite incredible power, and effective control over Hitler, it still didn't work out so well for the SS. The organization broke up and scattered, a few were hanged, and a great many others met Nazi-hunters in the night.

 

Lot of nations have their military equivalents, and all are very good. Attrition and bribery can be a bitch.

Putin will bot be czar 'forever', and it is increasingly becoming a time-limited engagement. 

 

This is what options were designed for.

 Dead money, until suddenly it isn't.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

I read up on the Wagner group and I don't think sending them will make a lot of difference. Yes, they model themselves after the SS (the skull symbol is similar to the Totenkopf SS), but they are just mercenaries for dirty work  and not really trained like an army on heavy equipment etc. 

Based on their track record in Africa, it seems that they have a mixed record at best and tend to get their asses kicked once they meet some skilled counterparts. They also seem to have very high loss rates.

 

It's sort of ironical to sent mercenary Nazi's to de-nazify a country.

[Spekulatius]

Holy crap. I feel sorry for these guys. There were rumors that some conscripts got Nagant bolt action rifles (WW2 standard edition). That may be almost true (the fellow in this clip shows a rather worn AK47).

 

I also see news that Putin conscripted 135k new soldiers  - more cannon fodder.

[Spekulatius]

Will be interested to see who flinches. Germany insists on paying for NG from Russia in Euro's or USD (as is written in the contract), Putin wants payment in Rubbles, via a trust account at a Russian bank:

 

First Litmus test is tomorrow.

 

[SharperDingaan]

Russia will be declaring force majeure on its external debt very shortly.

Shortly thereafter, all Russian financial transactions will be COD, and liquidity implodes; the Central Bank forced to print unlimited RUB, driving inflation and riots. And if there is no market to suck up those RUB (pay for oil, commodities, etc), Russia becomes an even more dangerous place.

 

Employees/citizens simply convert RUB into crypto as soon as they get them, same as everyone else already does in a South America. Shops take both RUB and crypto, where they have to. All that is required is internet, and that can easily be supplied via satellite. 

 

Europe is just being smart - it already has the gas.

Putin wants conversion at todays Ruble/USD FX rate - USD 10M for RUB 800M. But if after force majeure the Ruble collapses to 1/3 its current value? delivery of RUB 800M only costs USD 3.33M - and the USD 6.67M gain can be given to European consumers to offset higher gas prices. Economics is such a bitch!

 

We live in interesting times.

 

SD

 

   

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by SharperDingaan