Blugolds

Obviously dont know who made the ultimate call, Its just very strange to me, he has been pretty vocal about the trouble with investing in airlines over the years, DECADES, he called them a "Death trap for investors" and joked about a visionary present at Kitty Hawk doing the world a huge favor by shooting Orville Wright down" , called them a "bottomless pit, investors attracted by growth when they should have been repelled by it" and overall the industry having "very, very low incremental costs per seat, but enormous fixed costs, which leads to a constant competitive temptation to slash prices to fill seats" He was in and out around Covid and even before the pandemic I didnt feel good about it and when they were out, I thought well, good! And now here we are again LOL, back into the airline business, granted a 1% position. The ONLY thing I can figure is that maybe they are thinking that with jet fuel prices higher for longer maybe it will shake out the weak hands ie. Spirit et al. and maybe allow the bigger players to capture more market share or increase margins with less competition? I know he has made positive comments regarding CEOs, but then I come back to previous comments regarding buying business that are so good an idiot could run them, because sooner or later one will. Glad they are deploying capital, just not excited about airlines at all, honestly would have rather they just but that 1% into one of the other positions like Google, but what do I know. Just seems to be counterintuitive to take a hard stance on an industry for decades and then be lured in by the sirens song repeatedly, I dont know if there has been another industry that he has spoken so strongly against for so long come to think of it.

Delta...interesting...cant say that Im excited about airlines...

I think this is the natural progression in investing, at least it was for me. Reading Op's story I couldnt help but think...man that could have been me, and it was, albeit in a lower capacity back in the day. I was young in age and investing acumen, with a bank roll that outsized my experience and understanding, coming off some early sucess (in hindsight, that saying about hoping your first deal is a loser because you learn when it is cheap, but if its a winner you think its easy and dont learn as much etc...I was overconfident...I didnt even know what I didnt know...and the education was expensive lol.

Congrats @Saluki !! Im about 10yrs behind you and have twin 3yr old boys. Outside of having twins, as an "older dad" the first year was hard for me, I was also indifferent to having kids before the fact, could take it or leave it, she felt more strongly and so we tried and got BOGO! The womens body goes through a lot, hormones change and it can take a while for them to return back to normal, this can also affect dad, its a huge life change, throw in a partner that is dealing with hormonal/body changes and a lack of sleep and my entire world turned upside down. I didnt know what to expect but the situation I was in certainly wasnt whatever the heck I had in my mind it would be. It was supposed to be the best thing in the world, and I found myself think, oh no, what have I dont/got myself into. You find your groove, there will be tough times, Im not gonna sugar coat it, exhaustion, tempers, probably the majority attributed to lack of sleep by one or both partners. But I will also tell you that it gets better and better, infants were brutal for me, watching them walk/talk was amazing and now that they are developing into actual little people its the best. Mom and Dad relationship is better than ever and there is literally nothing I'd rather do in this world than spend time as a family. I "get it" now and I can honestly say it's the happiest I've ever been in my life, notice I didnt say the easiest, or the most freedom lol. Its easy to get caught up in trying to survive, get sleep, take care of the kid, mom, yourself, work, juggle everything, but "try" to also pause and enjoy it, that can be easier said than done, and people told me that as well, and honestly at the time I was in survival mode so it didnt register, once we made it out of survival mode, it makes sense, sounds cliche but it does go fast. There has never been a better time for parents to document these early years, you have a camera/cloud in your pocket, you don t have to have it out non stop like an obnoxious tourist, but sometimes I do go back through the pics on my phone by myself and just remember, I love it, so dont forget to take some, none of them are staged, or forced, most candid, mom reading to the boys, boys walking ahead together in the woods, son covered in food, son mid belly laugh, a babies smile, you just forget a lot and Im so grateful to have pics to remember those times, the candid pics, I would rather lose the entire contents of my home, than lose those pics. Congrats again! Caring individuals, responsible citizens, lifelong learners, world needs more of those.

Like sharper said, there is more to it than just turning the dial up to 100%. Logistics, tanks for storage, tank balance, if a refiner has the ability to run higher rate, they likely would already be doing it as they would view anything less as leaving money on the table. Also there are "unsexy" needs for the process that dont translate directly to the bottom line and thus are generally the last to get upgraded but needed none the less for higher rates, rundown cooling, waste water plants for byproducts, coke removal and shipping/storage and this is to say nothing of the increased strain/shortened catalyst life, your projected run shrinks as you run it harder. There is a lot to it. A refinery likes to run just below peak, think of how your car behaves with the cruise on at 60 vs when you floor it wide open for an extended period of time, its fine if you floor it to merge with traffic for 10 sec but you wouldnt take a 500 mile trip with the redline pegged and not expect something to happen, when that happens, units come down and then you lose total production from that unit, and often supporting units for however long the shutdown takes it can end up being a net loss of overall production, running 90% smooth for 12 mo vs WFO for 9 months and down for 3 months. Thats the business, find out where that line is, is it 90% or 91% that yields the most stable operation and maximum production.

Global uncertainty is the highest its been for sure since Covid, new captain at the helm that has indicated that BRK is ready and willing (and has been) buying back, BRK trading at buyback levels and potentially lower, BRK sitting on ~380 in cash, potential for investment opportunities in addition to buybacks...whats not to like here, could get sexy. As a longtime BRK holder and a long runway ahead, either scenario you described would be great.

LIke Parsad I was also trying to give it a chance, there have been series in the past that didnt hook me right away. I remember when THE WIRE came out, I lose interest during the first episode it was slow, so I didnt go back for over a year, tried it again and slugged through it and it ended up being one of the best series I have watched. And to clarify, my feeling was the same within the first 20 min but kept thinking, it cant be this bad, I'll finish the episode, ok second episode maybe it takes a bit for them to find their groove and develop storyline...but alas, its just not there!

Same sentiment, I wanted to like it, was excited it was coming out, as I've stated before Im a self proclaimed western cinema junkie, even in modern form. I shut it off 3/4 of the way through the 2nd episode and wont watch any more, its just so cheesy, horrible writing, horrible, poor acting, the writing and acting is so poor its shocking, they are just trying to milk the franchise and its so bad its shameful I can only guess that they wanted to get it out asap to capitalize on the brand association and perhaps they are spending their real time on the other spin offs, I think they are coming out with a 6666 ranch spin off, so maybe that is consuming all their energy and they just scribbled some quick storyline notes on a bar napkin for the producer and hoped that with enough cliché special forces terminology and gung ho hardcore attitudes it would carry the storyline and distract from its deficiencies in every other area.....watching the show feels like watching a Hegseth press conference

I agree RE is actually priced pretty reasonable IMO, you still have your high demand areas that command a premium, but I think of RE as a sum of the parts, if I purchased land in an area, any area, and then built it myself what would it cost? What is its "Scrap" value if you will. The prices for labor, any contractors I would hire, septic, well, foundation etc have all increased with RE prices, price of materials are all higher than 5 years ago (but below peak covid and supply chain issues, and some tariff related costs etc) concrete has increased quite a bit. So when comparing the purchase of any used home and subtracting the price for a comparable lot or land vs building myself...even with myself doing 90% of the work, the prices are not far off, often its cheaper to buy a used home. I always look at material prices as an indicator and a kind of "floor" for home prices, if there was a great discrepancy in cheap materials and labor (low) vs the used market (high) that would indicate to me that perhaps the used market has some fat to trim. There are other variables, supply, rates etc but this is just a guide I use for my own mental model and Im not seeing it. RE to someone not in tune with the increase in material and labor, just looking at rates and avg mortgage payments might seem high, and they are compared to 5 years ago if that is the only lens, but when taking it as a sum of parts and also accounting for the increase in labor costs as well as materials, they track. The inverse would be circa 2008 when material and labor prices were more constant/steady and we saw homes sitting on market for extended periods, nothing was moving and we could often purchase homes for less than scrap value! I purchased properties that were rentable in their current state for less than I could build for sure and often not much more than I could build the detached garage for! Paying .50 for dollar bills! Currently that spread is much closer, I would estimate .90 on the dollar, there might be a little room for RE to contract but I dont see how that spread could widen significantly without all hell breaking loose and even then it would be buoyed by a lack of supply. People got spoiled by RE prices and low rates for a long time and thought that was the new normal IMO. Def not a bubble. Not a RE "professional" but have always been around RE/construction/labor/materials and follow closely. Just my .02 zinc filled cents.

Par for the course (pun intended)...Literally every winner of the FIFA peace prize has captured the leader of Venezuela...

I often hypothesized about this several years ago when I first heard of autonomous driving, when it becomes well established fact that it is a safer option (I dont think we are there yet) how the insurance industry will adjust as well as laws. Could it get to a point where it is deemed "unsafe" for human control of a vehicle? Reserved only for collector cars etc. Will laws eventually reflect that? Penalties for human operation? Special acceptations for driving non autonomous vehicles similar to collector plates on vehicles now that allow for operation during certain times of the year and must have a separate primary vehicle registered as daily driver... And if laws do not reflect this, do the insurance companies penalize human operation so severally via premiums that it effectively becomes law? ie. current premiums become autonomous rates (benefit ins companies) and policies with human operation stipulation carry a higher premium as penalty? It eventually becomes cost prohibitive to own a non-autonomous vehicle? I find it all very interesting, I like to think about my grandpa that passed away several years ago at 91 and his stories of the model A in his local towns in upstate NY. the drastic changes in vehicles in the last 30 years...from 1931 --early to mid 1980's depending on the manufacturer, vehicles remained largely unchanged, internal combustion, carburetor,, drum to disc brakes, improved steering geometry and control, improved suspension, but if you spend any time in a 1979 F150 (my favorite) or chevy, or even a dodge pickup from the early 1990's (they lagged the other 2 IMO) they were rather primitive. With the introduction of EFI there was a relatively stable period of 10-20 years with some creature comfort changes, things like electronic sunroofs, CD players, heated seats, more emissions stuff, but even a Silverado from circa 2010 is fairly simple outside of their AFM or equivalent cylinder deactivation. Within the last 10 years vehicles have changed drastically IMO, the simpler vehicles are still available in some makes/models but are becoming harder to find outside of very base models such as a corolla. They all have very significant electronic controls, touch screens, VVT, variable geometry turbos, hybrids, full electric options and now autonomous driving. I spent a winter daily driving a 1979 F150 4x4 pickup with a 4spd, I loved the truck but it was work to drive, I enjoy shifting, but the heater barely kept up, drove like a "truck" no anti-lock brakes, had to have your head in the game and although I enjoyed it, there was absolutely nothing comfortable about it. Starting in the morning took several pumps on the carb to get it to pop off, and this was all normal in our lifetimes, I sometimes think about what my boys will think in another 20-40 years, about how we used to "drive" a vehicle, and had to stop to fill up the gas tank etc. Will it all seem so hard to imagine, like those stories from gramps in the model A. If they do get to autonomous normality lets call it, and you can "rent out" your vehicle to uber while you work rather than it sitting in the parking lot, what does that make the value of the vehicle that can produce income while you work/sleep etc. Who owns them? Could it get to point that they are always available and sitting around like those stupid green scooters in every major metropolitan area? Forget the boys being shocked that we "drove" and fille dup with gas, could it get to a point that they are surprised we owned a car? Or multiple vehicles for every driver? Europe already is better for someone who doesnt own a vehicle to get around by a factor of about 100, but could that come to the states, rather than mass public transportation options, does it shift to mass privately owned public transportation? Fun to speculate, and as a self proclaimed gearhead. I am both excited to see what transpires while also remaining nostalgic for the simplicity of years past, while also being cautious about what it will mean for the avg consumer and how they could get screwed. Do the premiums for non autonomous get so high that they are reserved for only the top income class as a status symbol, while also able to be the only ones who can afford to buy said autonomous vehicle that also generates them an acceptable ROI, but the avg joe "should" be happy because it has never been easier to get around and they dont have the maintenance, upkeep, insurance etc to worry about...all those costs (plus a little more) are now baked in to your price-per-ride. Similar to how every complained about $130/mo for cable television and was excited to have options like Hulu/Netflix/Disney etc. for $10/mo only for everyone to just pay several separate subscription fees to equal or exceed the original $130/mo anyway... and then those providers consolidate giving them pricing power and the ability to raise fees etc, you can go without television subs, but its pretty tough to do with transportation. Anyway Im rambling, but this is where my head goes when I start down the rabbit hole trying to predict the future.

I think that may be where we differ...you say Mattis seemed to forget who his commander was...Military members swear an oath to the constitution. Ultimately Mattis "commander" is the document, not whomever happens to be sitting in the chair at Pennsylvania Ave. Obviously neither of these men are of the same pedigree or caliber of Hegseth who defiantly did not climb his way to the top by kissing ass..but I do find it somewhat unprecedented that two very senior military commanders would make such bold claims about a POTUS, this does not warrant even the slightest question in ones mind?

What about Gen Mattis? Would you also describe him as a disgrace to the Armed Forces and a chicken shit coward that climbed his way to the top by kissing ass? He seems to share the same sentiment re Trump as Gen Milley.

Miley has been on their "list" for a while now I'm sure...

Same thought, unremarkable article and borderline lazy. Also some comments he made re “aging shareholder base” and instituting a dividend. Those who have significant wealth in BRK appreciated over decades, including those with him from the beginning will pass on to heirs and I don’t believe they will be in a hurry to sell. Secondly, the div has been brought up previously and has generated a resounding “No” vote from shareholders. The article does nothing but state the obvious to anyone who is even mildly familiar with BRK. Greg isn’t WB, big shoes to fill, no elephants since Apple stake, what is he gonna do to beat the SP500. When you have such a significant phenom like WB, even if he is the GOAT, succession always raises the same criticism and skepticism, we saw the same with Steve Jobs vs Tim Cook “you can’t replace a Steve Jobs, he’s 1 in a million, he’s the GOAT” etc.