Political Posts

[cubsfan]

13 minutes ago, Libs said:

So there's been talk of Russia taking on NATO, which on the surface sounds preposterous, just given the overwhelming power of NATO forces relative to Russia. But what if, instead of taking on all of NATO, they nibbled at the corners, so to speak, in a such a way that the NATO members say to themselves: "I'm not risking our soldiers / WW3 breaking out by fighting for X."

 

In other words, the plan is to destroy NATO by exposing it as toothless. Then, over time, Russia starts to take the smaller / weaker countries.

 

This guy explains it. The example he gives is a remote outpost in Finland with little strategic value to anyone. Technically, it's a violation of Article 5 if Russia takes a small slice. Will that be worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

 

I think European leaders are starting to freak. The war is not going well , and Europe is faced with the prospect of sending more arms and possibly men if Russia is to be contained.

[Dinar]

31 minutes ago, Libs said:

So there's been talk of Russia taking on NATO, which on the surface sounds preposterous, just given the overwhelming power of NATO forces relative to Russia. But what if, instead of taking on all of NATO, they nibbled at the corners, so to speak, in a such a way that the NATO members say to themselves: "I'm not risking our soldiers / WW3 breaking out by fighting for X."

 

In other words, the plan is to destroy NATO by exposing it as toothless. Then, over time, Russia starts to take the smaller / weaker countries.

 

This guy explains it. The example he gives is a remote outpost in Finland with little strategic value to anyone. Technically, it's a violation of Article 5 if Russia takes a small slice. Will that be worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

 

This guy doesn't know his history.  Last time USSR attacked Finland, it was clobbered.  Finns will give the Russian army a bloody nose.  Post Ukraine invasion, Russia will not invade anyone - its army isn't capable of winning a war.  

[Parsad]

British Columbia businesses feeling the pinch from China consumer spending:

 

https://biv.com/article/2024/01/bc-businesses-pinched-chinas-cooling-economy?utm_source=BIV&utm_campaign=8a348efb0a-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ba3660ab09-f74cc7858e-[LIST_EMAIL_ID]&mc_cid=8a348efb0a&mc_eid=14159a6e02

 

Cheers!

[Blugolds]

14 minutes ago, Dinar said:

This guy doesn't know his history.  Last time USSR attacked Finland, it was clobbered.  Finns will give the Russian army a bloody nose.  Post Ukraine invasion, Russia will not invade anyone - its army isn't capable of winning a war.  

 

LOL was thinking the same thing...the Fins resistance to USSR is what legends are made of. 

[Libs]

Fair enough about the Fins. But there must be other places they could try this approach.

[Pelagic]

Estonia and Latvia are aware of the risk of limited incursions by Russia and the possible lack of political will to repel what to other NATO members is a relatively minor territorial loss. To that end, they're building fortifications right on their borders with Russia ready to defend every inch of territory, rather than employing a Cold War era defense in depth strategy.

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/baltics-to-build-joint-fortifications-along-russian-belarus-borders

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/latvia-lithuania-estonia-common-defense-zone-russia-border-security-concerns/

 

 

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, Dinar said:

This guy doesn't know his history.  Last time USSR attacked Finland, it was clobbered.  Finns will give the Russian army a bloody nose.  Post Ukraine invasion, Russia will not invade anyone - its army isn't capable of winning a war.  

Anders luck knows history very well. I watched  some of the podcasts. What he describes is what’s called “Salami Taktik”. It means the aggressive power takes a bit (a slice of Salami so to speak ) and that watches what happens. If no credible counter, you take an other slice. Is it going to happen? Probably not. Would it be Putin’s playbook, if he were to start something? Absolutely.

[Xerxes]

6 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

LOL was thinking the same thing...the Fins resistance to USSR is what legends are made of. 

legendary indeed. 

so was British betrayal of that heroic resistance against the Stalinist colossus, the moment Germany invaded the Soviet Union 

[ValueArb]

6 hours ago, Libs said:

This guy explains it. The example he gives is a remote outpost in Finland with little strategic value to anyone. Technically, it's a violation of Article 5 if Russia takes a small slice. Will that be worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

 

Sisu might have something to say about that. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

6 hours ago, Libs said:

So there's been talk of Russia taking on NATO, which on the surface sounds preposterous, just given the overwhelming power of NATO forces relative to Russia. But what if, instead of taking on all of NATO, they nibbled at the corners, so to speak, in a such a way that the NATO members say to themselves: "I'm not risking our soldiers / WW3 breaking out by fighting for X."

 

In other words, the plan is to destroy NATO by exposing it as toothless. Then, over time, Russia starts to take the smaller / weaker countries.

 

This guy explains it. The example he gives is a remote outpost in Finland with little strategic value to anyone. Technically, it's a violation of Article 5 if Russia takes a small slice. Will that be worth a full-scale war with a nuclear power?

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

 

Article 5 is only good if it is reinforced.

 

Technically speaking interference in U.S. election could be an act of war, technically speaking foreign agents conducting assassination on Canadian soil targeting Canadian citizens could be an act of war. Both of which ought to trigger Article 5. 
 

So it comes down to interpretation, what is the right response etc. and even then NATO members need to decide to participate. 
 

If Turkey and Greece get into an armed conflict against each other, does that trigger Article 5 on both sides. The whole thing is a bit silly. 
 

So it comes down to signaling, first and foremost. 
 

I personally don’t Finland has anything to fear. And not because of Russian lack of capabilities. Ukraine is different. 

[beerbaron]

It's likely going to be the play for both Russia and China.

 

 

Here is Xi and Putin OS. Let's call it Putin95 for the fun of it...

 

LandGrab = 100 sq km

WaitTime = 5Y

 

While Military Action < Than Direct Bomb

{

Land Grab = Land Grab * 2

WaitTime=WaitTime / 2

Wait(WaitTime)

}

[changegonnacome]

17 hours ago, Dinar said:

Post Ukraine invasion, Russia will not invade anyone - its army isn't capable of winning a war.  

 

For sure - there's a strange cognitive dissonance that some people have Re: Russia

 

Some people hold the thought that Putin is an imperialist and Ukraine was Step 1 in a multi-step expansionist plan...when there is no evidence of either a military or standing army build up of a scale to support that thesis.

 

Then the reality is that the Russian army in 2022 and even today - is relatively modest and incapable of anything beyond what is doing today.....occupying a tiny sliver on an 'edge out' basis from its own borders.

 

Let's get real folks Russia entered Ukraine in 2022 with an army of no more than 190,000 men.

 

Hitler built up the German war machine in plain sight under the guise of self-defence.....eventually sending nearly 2 million troops into Poland to invade, capture and occupy the country (a country half the size in land mass terms as Ukraine today).

 

As @Dinar says - Russian military capabilities are all tied up now....because they are extremely limited in their scope.....that was true in 2022 and that is true today. The only thing that keeps Russia in the 'game' of great power politics are its resources (oil/gas) and its nuclear capability.

[Xerxes]

3 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

For sure - there's a strange cognitive dissonance that some people have Re: Russia

 

Some people hold the thought that Putin is an imperialist and Ukraine was Step 1 in a multi-step expansionist plan...when there is no evidence of either a military or standing army build up of a scale to support that thesis.

 

Then the reality is that the Russian army in 2022 and even today - is relatively modest and incapable of anything beyond what is doing today.....occupying a tiny sliver on an 'edge out' basis from its own borders.

 

Let's get real folks Russia entered Ukraine in 2022 with an army of no more than 190,000 men.

 

Hitler built up the German war machine in plain sight under the guise of self-defence.....eventually sending nearly 2 million troops into Poland to invade, capture and occupy the country (a country half the size in land mass terms as Ukraine today).

 

As @Dinar says - Russian military capabilities are all tied up now....because they are extremely limited in their scope.....that was true in 2022 and that is true today. The only thing that keeps Russia in the 'game' of great power politics are its resources (oil/gas) and its nuclear capability.

we should not compare wars of 60 years ago to today’ realities. 

Hitler did not build the German war machine on its own. He inherited a highly industrial juggernaut of a nation steeped in military traditions. Hitler or not, the Prussian military caste would have had its revenge. It just got far worse than needs be with the madman at the helm. 

 

it is never all about the effectiveness. Those 190,000 troops occupy perhaps a fifth of Ukraine, but had an outsize role in reshaping the geopolitics for years to come, regardless of their effectiveness to take Kiev or not in early 2022. 

A lot of people on this board and Twitter enjoy making scorecard of things Russia lost by going in Ukraine in 2022. All of which are quantifiable and probably correct and accurate. But there is a key point. As that is a very Western point of view as to what is important. Geopolitics is not about running NPVs. 

 

The real question to ask is:  Does Kremlin prefer its situation in 2024 or in pre-2022 era ? Understanding that Kremlin does not work for the Russian people. It never did in recent times. 

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

we should not compare wars of 60 years ago to today’ realities. 

Hitler did not build the German war machine on its own. He inherited a highly industrial juggernaut of a nation steeped in military traditions. Hitler or not, the Prussian military caste would have had its revenge. It just got far worse than needs be with the madman at the helm. 

 

it is never all about the effectiveness. Those 190,000 troops occupy perhaps a fifth of Ukraine, but had an outsize role in reshaping the geopolitics for years to come, regardless of their effectiveness to take Kiev or not in early 2022. 

A lot of people on this board and Twitter enjoy making scorecard of things Russia lost by going in Ukraine in 2022. All of which are quantifiable and probably correct and accurate. But there is a key point. As that is a very Western point of view as to what is important. Geopolitics is not about running NPVs. 

 

The real question to ask is:  Does Kremlin prefer its situation in 2024 or in pre-2022 era ? Understanding that Kremlin does not work for the Russian people. It never did in recent times. 

Really, we should never forget Russia’s capacity to endure hardship. Russia lost 10 million soldiers in WWII. Displacing them from their current gains will be no picnic.

[Parsad]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2024/02/02/china-economy-online-ban-critics-watson-ac360-vpx.cnn

 

Cheers!

[Hektor]

“Apple, Mondelez and Procter & Gamble are bullish on consumer spending growth in China despite recent economic turmoil there”

 

https://archive.is/zYXpE

 

Snippets from the article:

 

“We’ve been in China for 30 years, and I remain very optimistic about China over the long term,” Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook told analysts

“Jon Moeller, CEO of consumer-products company P&G, said during a recent earnings call that in early January he spent six days in China, where he met the company’s local employees and government officials and visited residents’ homes to talk about their buying habits. That experience bolstered his view that challenges in the market are temporary and that there would be opportunities to expand the company’s business in the years ahead.”

[mattee2264]

Must be some good companies that have been thrown out with the bathwater.

 

Mandarin Oriental comes to mind. At similar levels to depths of the pandemic.

Jardine Matheson is a solid storied conglomerate

 

Marty Whitman used to love Henderson Land, CK Hutchinson Holdings, Wheelock etc. 

 

 

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/05/business/us-treasury-officials-china-visit.html

 

Top U.S. Treasury Officials to Visit Beijing for Economic Talks
A meeting of the new economic working group comes as the U.S. and China are trying to prevent any escalation of hostilities.

 

The Biden administration is dispatching a high-level delegation of Treasury Department officials to Beijing this week for a round of economic talks as the world’s largest economies look to continue engagement efforts that President Biden and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to pursue last year.

[james22]

If you can't report on China, why would you invest in China?

 

https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/failure-at-the-wall-street-journal

[formthirteen]

Quote

 

The CSI 1000 gauge, frequently used as the underlying benchmark for snowball derivatives, has been facing selling pressure as the products hit so-called knock-in levels that incur losses to investors. It slumped as much as 8.7% early on Monday before closing down 6.2%.

Read more: China Snowballs and Their Role in This Year’s Stock Selloff: Q&A

The latest slump has led to fresh concerns over a wave of margin calls as the value of shares put down as collateral shrinks. The fear is that investors failing to top up their margin trading accounts may be forced to liquidate their positions.

 

 

Quote

“We are at that usual stage, the final leg in a selloff when things get really bloody,” said Ma Xuzhen, fund manager at Longquan Investment Management. “There’s really no point getting anxious at this stage, we all know it’s near the bottom.”

 

Quote

“Whether or not today marks the floor to Chinese equities is yet to be seen but it sure feels as though we’re bumping along the bottom as policymakers have signaled they no longer want to see any further declines,” said David Chao, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-stocks-languish-despite-renewed-015027580.html

 

The CCP no longer want to see any further declines.

[ValueArb]

I have a backlog of new tender offers to read through and came across this one. Alternative Liquidity Index put out an offer to buy up to 10M shares in SVA (Sinovac Bio) for 3 cents. Now SVA stopped trading nearly 5 years ago due to a legal dispute over a share exchange that has yet to be settled, and last trade was at $6.50. Book value reported at year end 2022 was roughly $100 per share, and they claim $14/share in cash and roughly $80/share in investments as of June of last year, 

 

I guess I have to give Alternative Liquidity some props for an audacious attempt, but if they really think they'll be able to trade these shares someday (and that they are anywhere near book value) maybe offering a few bucks per share might actually get them some in volume. Or SVA is just a fraud, so why buy at even 3 cents?

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1084201/000110465923097975/tm2325464d1_ex99-a1.htm

[james22]

 

[Hektor]

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-06/xi-set-to-discuss-china-stock-market-with-financial-regulators?srnd=premium

[Luke]

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

[Parsad]

19 hours ago, Luca said:

Its the year of the dragon folks, Xi aims to beat SP 500 this year...;-)

 

That might be tough.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-facing-us-financial-crisis-234945940.html