Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

Swedish Prosecution Authority [February 7^th 2024] : The prosecutor closes the Swedish investigation concerning gross sabotage against Nord Stream.

 

Why did it take so long to come to the conclusion about lack of Swedish jurisidiction? 

 

It now on the shoulders of the Danish government, especially our Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Edited February 7, 2024 by John Hjorth

[mattee2264]

Stock markets are leading indicators so the real pain in the Chinese economy is likely to come. 

 

What I find odd is there hasn't been much in the way of contagion. There must be some global banks with some exposure to Chinese RE. 

 

If anything the failure of China's re-opening has been bullish by suppressing global inflationary pressures especially in relation to commodities etc. 

 

 

[Hektor]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

That might be tough.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-facing-us-financial-crisis-234945940.html

And this doesn't make it any easier for China, I think.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/economy/united-states-china-mexico-trade.html

 

For First Time in Two Decades, U.S. Buys More From Mexico Than China

The United States bought more goods from Mexico than China in 2023 for the first time in 20 years, evidence of how much global trade patterns have shifted.

[cubsfan]

This can't be good news for Ukraine. Replacing your top general and looking at a purge of your government when you are in the middle of a major war?  

 

Sounds like desperation and a soft coup in the making:

 

https://visegradinsight.eu/if-zaluzny-is-out-who-could-become-ukraines-next-commander-in-chief/

 

It sounds like General Zaluzny is resisting the move and has not left his post??   Anyone know?

 

 

[james22]

China is going to make Japan's real estate bubble look insignificant.

[Xerxes]

The fracture has been months in the making. The article that the good general wrote on The Economist last year made the spat public. 
 

Looks like Zelenskyy is looking for his own version of Kietel and Jodl. The “yes men” High Command. 
 

In some ways the very nature of the spat reflect that the Ukrainian government is not any danger of being overrun and overthrown by Russian forces nor more Ukrainian territory is in danger of being overrun.
 

Unity fractures and old politics surfaces when imminent danger is no longer there. Read: stalemate, however you define it. 
 

[Hektor]

Also, the game of tariffs and avoiding tarrifs

 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a-china-u-s-decoupling-you-aint-seen-nothing-yet-12c0828e?mod=hp_lead_pos6

 

https://archive.is/E3ysM

 

A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Tariffs haven’t reduced U.S. trade links with China much. Would a 60% rate do it?

[cubsfan]

^^^ Ok, got it. Agree on the stalemate.

 

This article, if true, discusses the extreme popularity of the General among the armed forces and the population. And a larger purge of the government. So it may get rough.

 

Notably - the admission of stalemate and manpower shortages are alarming from a government that would never accept the word stalemate.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-zaluzhny-stalemate-b2490755.html

 

“I mean a replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military,” Mr Zelensky said."

 

“Zaluzhny has his reputation as an iron general, the embodiment of the Ukrainian armed forces that saved this country against an enemy as fearsome as Russia. Zaluzhny personally has the support of 88 per cent of Ukrainians. 97 per cent of Ukrainians trust the armed forces under his command,” 

 

 In December last year, Mr Zelensky claimed General Zaluzhny had requested the president mobilise an additional half a million Ukrainian civilians to counter Russia’s manpower advantage. Gen Zaluzhny denied that figure, but he has stated the need to mobilise more troops since. 

[ValueArb]

Did we lose the Korean war when Truman sacked MacArthur or the Civil War when Lincoln sacked McClellan? Civilian control of the military is a good thing, as long as his replacement is competent. 

[Xerxes]

I don’t know about US Civil War. Never read anything on it. 
 

But the counter example to Korea would be LBJ running the war from the White House and directing the bombing campaign in the North. While hampering Westermoreland, who operated in South Vietnam as his sandbox. The fear of the Red volunteers crossing into North Vietnam was real and influenced by MacArthur running wild and what happened on the Yalu river in the previous war. Nevermind that North Vietnamese were not North Korean and the former not exactly on the same page with Peking, neither historically nor ideologically. 

 

Yes civilian control of the military is a good thing. But when personal politics start to hamper national security that is a cause for concern. 
 

in my view, Ukraine will be going through Taiwanization stage (dictatorship, autocracy) before it become fully democratic. Everyone knows about Taiwan today but not the Taiwan from 60s and 70s. There was a prerequisite and price to pay. 

[james22]

The Chinese economy is already sucking. If the housing oversupply is really as bad as Zeihan makes out, China is in for an economic upheaval that makes 1929 look like a mild case of the hiccups.

 

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=57128

 

 

[Gmthebeau]

The average US investor has no ability to analyze China.  Have you traveled there?  Hit the ground talking to people, companies, etc?  China is notorious for lying, fraud, fake accounting, entire companies that are total frauds.  If you are hellbent on investing in China at least hire a fund manager who lives there or Hong Kong.  Otherwise, stop wasting your time and money on this garbage.

[james22]

He Keng, a former deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, spoke on Saturday about the struggling housing market in China. When commenting on its vast oversupply of homes, He said some experts have suggested that these empty homes available in China would be enough to accommodate a whopping 3 billion people.

 

"How many vacant homes are there now?" said He at an economic forum in the city of Dongguan. "The experts are presenting figures that vary greatly. The most extreme believe the number of vacant homes are now enough for 3 billion people. We only have 1.4 billion people."

 

"That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can't live in all of them," He added.

 

https://archive.ph/psE7c#selection-1685.0-1699.50

 

LOL

[ValueArb]

Russian “technology”, training and morale so terrible that one of its most advanced SAM installations can’t shoot down two Storm Shadows flying directly over it on their way to massively damage a key airfield.

[cubsfan]

Well - looks like the good general is out - and a country wide purge is coming.

Somebody definitely has Zelensky's ear - let's hope he's not micromanaging the war, like

Uncle Adolf did against the Russians...

 

The replaced general, did not sound like a boob, given his popularity among the armed forces and population. Hopefully, Zelensky is not looking for a scapegoat.

 

Many of his comments in the article indicate:

- The 2023 spring offensive was a failure (shocker)

- Zelensky thinks he knows strategy better than the good general

- A lack of capable manpower (that's alarming)

- A wholesale change of the country's leadership is coming

 

Sounds like desperation to me. We will know soon enough - if Zelensky, with no military training actually knows what he's doing.

 

Good luck Ukraine!

 

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/02/08/new-approaches-new-strategies-are-needed-ukraines-sacks-head-of-armed-forces/

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

On 2/7/2024 at 2:05 PM, james22 said:

He Keng, a former deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, spoke on Saturday about the struggling housing market in China. When commenting on its vast oversupply of homes, He said some experts have suggested that these empty homes available in China would be enough to accommodate a whopping 3 billion people.

 

"How many vacant homes are there now?" said He at an economic forum in the city of Dongguan. "The experts are presenting figures that vary greatly. The most extreme believe the number of vacant homes are now enough for 3 billion people. We only have 1.4 billion people."

 

"That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can't live in all of them," He added.

 

https://archive.ph/psE7c#selection-1685.0-1699.50

 

LOL

 

China has solved the homeless crisis and all the west can do is criticize, SMH!

[Parsad]

So much for Evergrande's bond holders...I wonder what the CCP reaction would be to bondholders in other companies if they failed.  Cheers!
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-110000940.html

 

[Hektor]

“So US and European hedge funds piled into the debt, envisioning big payouts to juice their returns.”

 

Did they not hedge?

[Xerxes]

That is quite a coup for Tucker !

 

Man the first half hour Putin is going over a 1,000 year history. 

 

 

 

[formthirteen]

The CCP is clearly not interested in sharing common profits with foreign investors. From now on, I will definitely assume 99% of profits from BABA and other Chinese utilities will not reach foreign investors until it's been proven otherwise; I have no interest in giving my money to the CCP. Sometimes greed get's the better of me though. BABA no more, LOL.

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

The CCP is clearly not interested in sharing common profits with foreign investors. From now on, I will definitely assume 99% of profits from BABA and other Chinese utilities will not reach foreign investors until it's been proven otherwise; I have no interest in giving my money to the CCP. Sometimes greed get's the better of me though. BABA no more, LOL.

 

I think they have to.  Think about how big the non-performing real estate loan portfolio must be in China...if Evergrande is $260B in assets...think 10-15 times that at a minimum.  It's like the government warrants issued by US banks during the GFC...they want to recover losses if there is any upside!

 

So, any value left in these companies after equity and bond holders are wiped out, is money the CCP is going to use to stabilize the system and refill their coffers for stimulus or losses already incurred.  Foreign governments and entities can withstand China exposure losses...but China cannot withstand China's own losses!  So international investors...suck it up!  

 

Cheers!

[ICUMD]

The wager here is that if the CCP wants to get the donkey (economy) to move, they will now need to dangle more than a single carrot.

 

It's not just a 'want' anymore, but a need.

They have no alternative.

Countries like China cannot progress without FDI.

 

They are getting desperate.

Let's see what treats they have in store.

Things are bound to get worse before they get better.

[Luke]

Its hard to hold chinese positions due to the horrible sentiment and bleak outlook/capitulation. I also get doubts sometimes and need some inner dialogue to maintain being bullish but its hard. It speaks for the distress and dislocation in the market.

[mattee2264]

Perhaps the analogy doesn't work with China. But for the USA at least I have a healthy respect for the power of shock-and-awe bailouts/stimulus to lift markets. 

And for the know-nothing investor index funds are probably the vehicle of choice with the added benefit that if the plunge protection team decides it wants to support markets it will buy index funds. 

 

MSCI China is at levels last seen almost 15 years ago. While some of that does reflect that GDP growth has been offset by massive dilution of shareholders with probably some more to come especially in financial/property institutions because the bath has been thrown off with the bathwater if you buy the index you'll end up owning some of the companies that will see an impressive recovery when the crisis is over. 

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I think they have to.  Think about how big the non-performing real estate loan portfolio must be in China...if Evergrande is $260B in assets...think 10-15 times that at a minimum.  It's like the government warrants issued by US banks during the GFC...they want to recover losses if there is any upside!

 

So, any value left in these companies after equity and bond holders are wiped out, is money the CCP is going to use to stabilize the system and refill their coffers for stimulus or losses already incurred.  Foreign governments and entities can withstand China exposure losses...but China cannot withstand China's own losses!  So international investors...suck it up!  

 

Cheers!

I think the holes are going to be plugged by bond holders of these companies, banks and insurance (Ping An etc) cos who are going to be forced to buy assets.  China has the so called “National Team” to do this. Tech is only indirectly affected via economic malaise and deflation. Think what happened during the GFC and housing bubble - same issue although the players are different. In both cases, the goal was to save the existing financial system. I believe China will drag the solution out over many years unlike the GFC. Tech will be the first one to bounce back, just like what happened to the GFC in the US and rest if the world.

 

All they really need to do is ease up on tech regulation but that’s a different issue than the Evergrande Chinese housing bubble.

Edited February 9, 2024 by Spekulatius