Political Posts

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

 @Luca re Chinese Capitalism

 

Chinese Capitalism is different than American style Capitalism is an important way: they mix socialist tendencies like 'common prosperity'. No body really knows what the implications are, but clearly their interference can be heavy handed as was the case with BABA.

Ironically, Unions where THE origin of capitalism in the UK where we had the industrial revolution, investing into technology to replace more expensive labour drove innovation and ignited the flame for capitalism as we know it today. 

 

No country is the same and no "capitalism" is therefore the same, since every country lives within a state capitalist system on this planet. Common prosperity is the same word as "build back better". It is based on scientific research that high inequality in salaries and how wealth is divided leads to worse GDP growth, worsening social climate etc

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

(Ironically, their policies have essentially confiscated the money of Chinese through RE promotion.  So additionally, they suddenly have an unhappy populace to deal with, now that the music has stopped.)

I said it before, the problem in china was not the government but greedy gambling private investors that overleveraged their RE companies to heaven, using pre sales from projects to fund other projects and invest the money into other industries. It was a bubble by greedy investors and the CCP thankfully intervened and put regulation in it. Sad for the people that had to deal with our "free market" RE investors...thats why we have regulation in capitalism and thats why there is a government that puts up rules in markets so the worst tendencies of capitalism get blocked. 

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

I suspect this has undermined trust of FDI and Chinese companies. The shadow that foreign money will be confiscated through investment in the country has contributed to this rout. This is the opposite of capitalism.

How many investors have had their money confiscated in china here? The stock market is visible to the public, the earnings are real, the dividends are real, if you take a tiny substrata of cases where people lost money due to regulation, you should have a look into the US IPO market and rethink about Crypto, Bankman-Fried, FTX and Co. 

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Personally, I think the CCP will need to back track heavily to make amends and rebuild trust.

The trust you speak of is unjustified to investors, why should private business be immune to regulation? The alphabet annual report reads similiar to tencent risk section. They too can get regulated but probably wont because nobody cares in that government. People are used to 0 regulation and the SP 500 climbing higher and higher since a decade.

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Why? Because they have no choice economically.  It is their only play. Stimulus is therefore just the first step.

Yes, i agree they need a stimulus. 

13 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Therin lies the value play in Chinese stocks.

The value lies in the very very cheap earnings multiple that of course can get a lot cheaper as always.

Edited January 23, 2024 by Luca

[Gmthebeau]

China is completely uninvestable in my opinion.  Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now.  I can't imagine how much he must have lost.   It's a communist country.  Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia.   There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.   

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

Btw, didnt know this: 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/1866197/who-takes-title-owner-most-expensive-residence-hong-kong-jack?page=all

 

 

Nice house! 

You think this is nice? Looks like a Courtyard budget hotel building to me. Imagine having tons of money and building this

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

You think this is nice? Looks like a Courtyard budget hotel building to me. Imagine having tons of money and building this

Its nicer than my house lol

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, Luca said:

10% return for 10 years is 160% return, id say that is a pretty nice base case assumption to get started from dont you think? Especially when its below 10x earnings, isnt that what value investing is about? Not paying much for 10% return and getting the upside for free? 

 

Buffett said he'd hire someone who can give him 10% returns consistently immediately. 

 

I believe you said:  Do you need growth for below 10x earnings?

 

That would 7% a year or 100% every 10 years.  That would not be enough unless I was a leveraged.  I aim for 15% annualized with no leverage.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

China is completely uninvestable in my opinion.  Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now.  I can't imagine how much he must have lost.   It's a communist country.  Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia.   There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.   

 

Communism has nothing to do with their struggles. 

 

They acquired a lot of debt and overbuilt their cities.  Transparency in their accounting is another issue.  Monetary controls that restrict liquidity has damaged trust in their global payment services.  Then finally you have the lack of respect for property and contract law. 

 

If they simply did what they originally set out to do...communist state control of productivity and assets...but maintained their pseudo-capitalist machinations through their businesses...and managed their debt/growth properly...they would be golden!

 

Cheers!

[Castanza]

8 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

China is completely uninvestable in my opinion.  Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now.  I can't imagine how much he must have lost.   It's a communist country.  Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia.   There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.   

My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever. 

[CGJB]

20 hours ago, Parsad said:

War, U.S. issues, Taiwan invasion...these seem like remote problems...unless Trump wins.  

 

Respectfully disagree that war with China would be more likely if Trump wins. Trump would be very aggressive toward China with things like trade restrictions and tariffs, but he has never shown any inclination to getting into a kinetic war with them.

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, CGJB said:

 

Respectfully disagree that war with China would be more likely if Trump wins. Trump would be very aggressive toward China with things like trade restrictions and tariffs, but he has never shown any inclination to getting into a kinetic war with them.

 

That's exactly why China would probably be more inclined to go after Taiwan, as they know that Trump would do nothing to protect Taiwan.  Cheers!

[CGJB]

36 minutes ago, Castanza said:

My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever. 

 

I'm so glad to see you posted this. I have some Russian ADRs myself. The action the US took on this doesn't "stick it to Putin" or whatever, it just screws over American citizens. What a mess.

Edited January 24, 2024 by CGJB

[CGJB]

29 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

That's exactly why China would probably be more inclined to go after Taiwan, as they know that Trump would do nothing to protect Taiwan.  Cheers!

 

It's not easy at all for China to go after Taiwan militarily. But Biden has been playing footsie with the third rail (Taiwan sovereignty), and that's a casus belli for China. Nothing else is. Keep the status quo in Taiwan, and China will take no risks. Taiwan is not defensible with America's current navy. We can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, for example.

Edited January 24, 2024 by CGJB

[Parsad]

41 minutes ago, CGJB said:

 

It's not easy at all for China to go after Taiwan militarily. But Biden has been playing footsie with the third rail (Taiwan sovereignty), and that's a casus belli for China. Nothing else is. Keep the status quo in Taiwan, and China will take no risks. Taiwan is not defensible with America's current navy. We can't shoot down hypersonic missiles, for example.

 

I agree!  Will Trump keep the status quo?  Other than the Middle East and North Korea, he essentially indicated that the U.S. reach will decrease during his previous term. 

 

If Trump wins, I suspect we will see considerable pullback of U.S. interests abroad, which subsequently will have an effect on the behavior of other nation states...China included.  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

Yea amazing how people forget that it was the US government that stole everyone’s Russian assets. 

[Gmthebeau]

2 hours ago, Castanza said:

My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever. 

Russia invaded another country.  There are consequences to that, same as if China does.  ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China.  Imagine if they don’t comply.  There would be consequences from the US government.  It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.

[Castanza]

41 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

Russia invaded another country.  There are consequences to that, same as if China does.  ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China.  Imagine if they don’t comply.  There would be consequences from the US government.  It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

Edited January 24, 2024 by Castanza

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

 

Big difference between drugs flooding other countries and a dictator invading another sovereign nation.  Yes, deaths are deaths, but I would imagine more people die every year from poor air quality...who are you going to blame for that and stopping it is as difficult as stopping the drug trade?

 

Also, it was a handover by the British government, not China invading Hong Kong.  

 

Cheers!

[Gmthebeau]

6 hours ago, Castanza said:

China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage. 
 

There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand. 

 

Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years.  I remember the first drug czar decades ago.  The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved.  Americans need to learn to stop using drugs.   If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.   

 

I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.  

[Luke]

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3249635/german-firms-plan-increase-china-investment-next-2-years-despite-reality-check-2023?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

 

German firms plan to increase China investment in next 2 years despite ‘reality check’ in 2023

[Luke]

“The economy is the body, and finance is the blood. The two coexist and prosper together,” its commentary said on Wednesday.

Earlier this week, Beijing made moves to improve market sentiment, with Premier Li Qiang pledging increased support for capital markets at a State Council meeting on Monday.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said on Tuesday that it would introduce more long-term institutional investors and avoid releasing policies that could dampen market expectations.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3249606/china-cut-banks-reserve-requirement-ratio-set-inject-1-trillion-yuan-market?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years.  I remember the first drug czar decades ago.  The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved.  Americans need to learn to stop using drugs.   If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.   

 

I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.  

 

So which is it? The here and now that matters for which equities are banned and blocked? Or further back in history? Because Russia owned Ukraine a dozen times over the last 800 years. I also seem to remember Russia being a vital ally to the US during WWII....again...inconsistency regarding actions in both the historical and present perspectives. 

[ICUMD]

Seems like a lot of the Mexican drug trade entering the US is a result of the smuggling of American firearms into Mexico, arming the drug cartels.

 

Apparently there is only one legal gun shop in all of Mexico, under military control.

 

Now that's irony!

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/19/how-a-booming-gun-business-in-the-u-s-arms-mexicos-cartels/

 

[Gmthebeau]

12 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

So which is it? The here and now that matters for which equities are banned and blocked? Or further back in history? Because Russia owned Ukraine a dozen times over the last 800 years. I also seem to remember Russia being a vital ally to the US during WWII....again...inconsistency regarding actions in both the historical and present perspectives. 

 

Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.

[Gmthebeau]

I fail to see why anyone would buy Chinese equities.  There have been talks to blocking them in the past.  China is clearly not a US friend.  The US Government Thrift Savings Plan (401k for government employees) have changed their international tracking index to remove Chinese equities.  The writing is on the wall, if you fail to listen you have nobody to blame but yourself when it goes bad.

[Castanza]

16 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Seems like a lot of the Mexican drug trade entering the US is a result of the smuggling of American firearms into Mexico, arming the drug cartels.

 

Apparently there is only one legal gun shop in all of Mexico, under military control.

 

Now that's irony!

 

https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/19/how-a-booming-gun-business-in-the-u-s-arms-mexicos-cartels/

 

 

Yes and gun crime went up with the ban for law abiding citizens ownership....irony

 

15 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

 

Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.

 

1. You said Russia securities are banned because of the current invasion of Ukraine

2. I said ok, why are Chinese and MX securities not banned because of the current drug situation

3. You said the drug history goes back further in time then the quoted 6 years

4. And I said yeah and Russia Ukraine conflicts go back further as well so why are securities only banned now? 

5. You said securities of KNOWN enemies should be banned or excepted to be banned. 

 

So why the inconsistency is my point...and why the double standards on which equities to ban. That is my point. Russia and China have both invaded countries in the last 5 years. Yet every talking head on the news and hedge fund manager is saying "We need to start investing in China." When China is doing far more directly against the US than Russia is. 

 

Blocking investments is just a stupid way to handle the situation. Either let people assume their own risk and invest where they want (free market) or don't and block all foreign adversarial exchanges. I knew the risk when investing in Russian ADRs...that's why it was a small beer money bet. But my initial point was pointing out the hypocrisy that it wasn't Russia who stole my shares....it was the US. 

 

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

Also, it was a handover by the British government, not China invading Hong Kong

 

That was decades ago and although linked, it was different than the conflict in 2018-2020....

 

China broke the agreement to maintain the segregation of govt and laws in Hong Kong post handover from the British. CCP worked their way into Hong Kong through legislative annexation. They imprisoned protesters and advocates of democracy since the mid 2000's and additional change in 2018-19 basically removed all freedom or independence of Hong Kong. Simply a different approach. 

 

Many many changes

- Freedom of press gone

- Bogus elections with CCP stooges put in office

- Extradition laws on the books and anti protest/democracy laws put in place to silence any dissident. 

 

Same thing China will likely do with Taiwan imo....China is damn good at invading through means of the nuanced legal process with no small degree of corruption. 

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________

 

All this to be said: Investing in foreign countries comes with risk 100000%. But that risk is not consistent and often times the risk does not come from the foreign power. It comes from out own country. So to the initial post I responded to....Russia was not the problem with Russian ADR's....it was the US who screwed it's own citizen shareholders. Some consistency from OUR government would be nice. Either make it clear what we can and cannot invest in or don't interfere. Also the brokerages are to blame to an extent. Some of them took it upon themselves to block ADR's and I think that's very wrong. Right in line with banks choosing to lock up finances of businesses they don't support. That's not capitalism and free market. 

 

 

[Luke]

9 minutes ago, Castanza said:

But my initial point was pointing out the hypocrisy that it wasn't Russia who stole my shares....it was the US. 

Well said, nobody in Russia stole the shares, the US randomly banned selected Russian billionaires, stole some of their assets and blocked shareholders from having access to their rightly owned shares. Everybody blaming russia but they did nothing here haha