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beerbaron

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  1. Hi, I have to buy half of my house from my ex-wife and instead of getting a fixed 5Y mortgage at 5.5% I tough it might be better to margin stocks (about 15% LTV) and use the cash proceed to buy the house. As additional insurance I would probably want to do interest rate swap so that I "convert" my variable to Fixed (4 to 5Y). I'm Canadian so this would have the advantage that the interest and hedges would be tax deductible. What are the retail instruments that I could use to do a dirty interest rate swap? Thanks BeerBaron
  2. Thanks for everybody, who needs the Canadian Revenue Agency when you have thecobf.com! Thanks BeerBaron
  3. So to recap for anybody reading this thread later. The attached chart gives the contribution limits by year. Total is $81500. If you have 200K in you TFSA you can take it all out today (Aug 3rd 2022) On Jan 1st 2023 you can contribute $81 500 (2009-2022) + $6 000 = $87 500 On Aug 3rd 2023 you can contribute $200 000 - $87 500 = $112 000 Did I get this right? Thanks BeerBaron
  4. Hi, I'll need to liquidate my TFSA this year as I need liquidity. Let's say I liquidate 200K$ from my TFSA in 2022, does it mean I'll have available contributions space of 200K in 2023? Thanks BeerBaron
  5. Here are what I got from it. I found it very insightfull. -1% increase in interest rate represents about 5% drop in market value. -The 5% drop will take 3Y to happen because it's illiquid. -Almost no short term correlation with interest rate change. -Short term rate seems to affect more than long term rate. -Real estate cycles are many decades long. Population growth is probably a big factor of that. Keep an eye on japan for what will happen in other countries, population in japan peaked 10Y ago. -US rate has an impact worldwide. About half of the local interest rate impact. -One unaswered question that I have is if there are no sales and a complete writedown (ghost town) would it show up? Probably not because there is no transaction. That might be part of the reason for real estate outperformance... the dead assets are just not transacted. BeerBaron
  6. I found something that has some good empirical data for those interested. I'd be interested in other's inputs on this, some data point to positive correlation between interest rate and housing price, which seems to defy classical monetary theory. Thanks BeerBaron work665.pdf
  7. Hi I'm doing an analysis on when a house should be bought. Does anybody have a good research paper on housing market VS interest rates? Particularly, I'm looking for the lag between rate change and correlation. Thanks BeerBaron
  8. Well, one could argue that Y/Y inflation will continue to drop because the high water mark is fairly recent (feb 2022). So as we advance toward Feb 2023 it should continue dropping (hopefully). AKA, the pain has already been taken. But, I don't think anybody wants to see inflation at 5%, which was the base number used for this month's CPI data. BeerBaron
  9. I don't think we will see any meaningful Mark To Market losses on insurers. Only bonds held for trading are marked to market. Fairfax is notorious for having a very large amount of bonds held for trading while other companies prefer to classify their bonds in the long term bond bucket. I much prefer Fairfax approach as it give real visibility on the changes in the company's value. BeerBaron
  10. Hi I'm trying to get a better grasp of the challenges and issues related to the technologies and industry of startups in the IT world. Anybody has a good VC speaker youtube or podcast to recommend? Thanks BeerBaron
  11. Cevian, there was literally 5 pages discussed in this thread, it's not like you were not warned. Reminds me times when I sat in meetings and nobody around the table remembered seeing a memo, although it was directly addressed to all of them the day before. BeerBaron
  12. I would say think what is the long term objective of China and how they will want their policies to go with that objective. There is a well documented 50 year plan that aims to put China as the premier economic power by 2048. After you understand that ask yourself if what we hear contradicts the plan or not. BeerBaron
  13. Thanks for the recommendation. I red the article and placed myself a reminder to revisit in 3 months when the intelligence community has done it's job. At this point I have little opinion, it's quite possible it came from a lab but really the question should be how to make sure it never comes from a lab? Here is my prognostic of the findings in 3 months, I'll post in this thread then. You can claim I was wrong but I'm putting my neck down. US intelligence findings will be: There are circumstantial evidences that Covid might have come from a lab but no solid proofs. Understanding a virus genome is complicated because it changes a lot over time. China has not been cooperating with our investigation so our findings are not strong. BeerBaron
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