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beerbaron

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Everything posted by beerbaron

  1. Hi, I have to buy half of my house from my ex-wife and instead of getting a fixed 5Y mortgage at 5.5% I tough it might be better to margin stocks (about 15% LTV) and use the cash proceed to buy the house. As additional insurance I would probably want to do interest rate swap so that I "convert" my variable to Fixed (4 to 5Y). I'm Canadian so this would have the advantage that the interest and hedges would be tax deductible. What are the retail instruments that I could use to do a dirty interest rate swap? Thanks BeerBaron
  2. Thanks for everybody, who needs the Canadian Revenue Agency when you have thecobf.com! Thanks BeerBaron
  3. So to recap for anybody reading this thread later. The attached chart gives the contribution limits by year. Total is $81500. If you have 200K in you TFSA you can take it all out today (Aug 3rd 2022) On Jan 1st 2023 you can contribute $81 500 (2009-2022) + $6 000 = $87 500 On Aug 3rd 2023 you can contribute $200 000 - $87 500 = $112 000 Did I get this right? Thanks BeerBaron
  4. Hi, I'll need to liquidate my TFSA this year as I need liquidity. Let's say I liquidate 200K$ from my TFSA in 2022, does it mean I'll have available contributions space of 200K in 2023? Thanks BeerBaron
  5. Here are what I got from it. I found it very insightfull. -1% increase in interest rate represents about 5% drop in market value. -The 5% drop will take 3Y to happen because it's illiquid. -Almost no short term correlation with interest rate change. -Short term rate seems to affect more than long term rate. -Real estate cycles are many decades long. Population growth is probably a big factor of that. Keep an eye on japan for what will happen in other countries, population in japan peaked 10Y ago. -US rate has an impact worldwide. About half of the local interest rate impact. -One unaswered question that I have is if there are no sales and a complete writedown (ghost town) would it show up? Probably not because there is no transaction. That might be part of the reason for real estate outperformance... the dead assets are just not transacted. BeerBaron
  6. I found something that has some good empirical data for those interested. I'd be interested in other's inputs on this, some data point to positive correlation between interest rate and housing price, which seems to defy classical monetary theory. Thanks BeerBaron work665.pdf
  7. Hi I'm doing an analysis on when a house should be bought. Does anybody have a good research paper on housing market VS interest rates? Particularly, I'm looking for the lag between rate change and correlation. Thanks BeerBaron
  8. Well, one could argue that Y/Y inflation will continue to drop because the high water mark is fairly recent (feb 2022). So as we advance toward Feb 2023 it should continue dropping (hopefully). AKA, the pain has already been taken. But, I don't think anybody wants to see inflation at 5%, which was the base number used for this month's CPI data. BeerBaron
  9. I don't think we will see any meaningful Mark To Market losses on insurers. Only bonds held for trading are marked to market. Fairfax is notorious for having a very large amount of bonds held for trading while other companies prefer to classify their bonds in the long term bond bucket. I much prefer Fairfax approach as it give real visibility on the changes in the company's value. BeerBaron
  10. Hi I'm trying to get a better grasp of the challenges and issues related to the technologies and industry of startups in the IT world. Anybody has a good VC speaker youtube or podcast to recommend? Thanks BeerBaron
  11. Cevian, there was literally 5 pages discussed in this thread, it's not like you were not warned. Reminds me times when I sat in meetings and nobody around the table remembered seeing a memo, although it was directly addressed to all of them the day before. BeerBaron
  12. I would say think what is the long term objective of China and how they will want their policies to go with that objective. There is a well documented 50 year plan that aims to put China as the premier economic power by 2048. After you understand that ask yourself if what we hear contradicts the plan or not. BeerBaron
  13. Thanks for the recommendation. I red the article and placed myself a reminder to revisit in 3 months when the intelligence community has done it's job. At this point I have little opinion, it's quite possible it came from a lab but really the question should be how to make sure it never comes from a lab? Here is my prognostic of the findings in 3 months, I'll post in this thread then. You can claim I was wrong but I'm putting my neck down. US intelligence findings will be: There are circumstantial evidences that Covid might have come from a lab but no solid proofs. Understanding a virus genome is complicated because it changes a lot over time. China has not been cooperating with our investigation so our findings are not strong. BeerBaron
  14. It seems like a very valid question if the Virus was man made in China and was the results of incompetence. But to me its sounds like witch hunt. It is plausible that it was actually the case, and I would not be surprised if it happened, after all incompetence or human error is a function of our species. China, Japan, China, Europe, Russia all made monumental mistakes on projects... , Chernobyl, Mars Climate Orbiter, Challenger, etc... But what I fail to understand is what is the outcome here? First, it's almost impossible that we could be able to take the genome of COVID and come out with great confidence that it was man made. Analysis, peer review, fact, counter facts, etc... this can take 5 years of scientific debate and when we'll be finished all we will have in front of us is a 1000 pages document with a spaghetti of nuances. Nothing concrete will ever come out of it. Most importantly, what's the end game here? Would we go to war with China over this? An why? It's not like they would ever admit it and it's not like we could ever be close to proving this with let's say... 98% certainty. So why do all this if we won't do anything over this? Seems like a distraction IMO. However, you don't need proofs that China screwed up to improve things. Actually if any of you ever worked with Asian cultures you would know that not losing face is way above truth. Give them a way out and they will collaborate with you. The pandemic has made everybody very aware of the risks so we have a good opportunity here to reduce risks. Our focus should be on answering the following questions: How are each country handling their biological labs? Do all labs handling virus have proper procedures in places? How we better secure those labs? Which equipment's and knowhow are critical to making bio weapons and how do we control this? Pointing fingers is not going to help. Identifying the risks and make sure we have a unified approach and proper funding to avoid those BeerBaron
  15. Quite a sensationalized title and only if you extrapolate November 2017's monthly 25% energy growth rate over 3 years (as that part of the article mentions). The full analysis is found here: https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption Which estimates that today, the bitcoin network uses about as much energy as Chile. On a per-transaction basis, each bitcoin transaction uses 741 kWH of energy as of 2020, up from 686 kWH in 2019. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/) By comparison, 741 kWH would power approximately 497,000 transactions on Visa's network. This is why I don't think Bitcoin can work for high volume of transactions. How could as humanity justify building power plants to support something that can be done 1000000 cheaper in energy. If you are a government that wants to nail Bitcoin for taking over your currency just control the supply of electricity. Furthermore, wait till bad press related to CO2 emissions get there... Farms in China are not powered with solar. Technology will not save Bitcoin, we are already at ASics. Only a major protocol change can do it. Will it happen? Beerbaron It's only "cheaper" when you're only considering energy as a cost input and not wages/time/buildings/marketing/etc. all required for the current financial system On an all-in basis, BTC is cheaper and faster and is getting even cheaper and faster with the advent of new technologies to exist on top of the blockchain so not every individual transaction has to be run through the blockchain. You used to transact in gold/silver. Then we found out its cheaper and easier to transact on the second layer which was paper representing that gold and silver. Then we went even further and found it's cheaper to transact with eltronic blips that represent the paper money that used to represent gold and silver. BTC is likely to be the foundational layer for payments (gold and silver) and there will be improvements and developments on top of it that make it even easier/cheaper to transact in going forward - we're already seeing this. Visa and all their employees do not consume the energy of Chile. Beerbaron
  16. Quite a sensationalized title and only if you extrapolate November 2017's monthly 25% energy growth rate over 3 years (as that part of the article mentions). The full analysis is found here: https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption Which estimates that today, the bitcoin network uses about as much energy as Chile. On a per-transaction basis, each bitcoin transaction uses 741 kWH of energy as of 2020, up from 686 kWH in 2019. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/) By comparison, 741 kWH would power approximately 497,000 transactions on Visa's network. This is why I don't think Bitcoin can work for high volume of transactions. How could as humanity justify building power plants to support something that can be done 1000000 cheaper in energy. If you are a government that wants to nail Bitcoin for taking over your currency just control the supply of electricity. Furthermore, wait till bad press related to CO2 emissions get there... Farms in China are not powered with solar. Technology will not save Bitcoin, we are already at ASics. Only a major protocol change can do it. Will it happen? Beerbaron
  17. Well, I'm a Director of R&D and let me tell you what you are asking is almost impossible to measure. First, R&D can be applied to anything, to use a baseball analogy, singles, doubles or home-run. Who wins the game depends on skill and luck but you can't measure the skill in a short timeframe, home-run R&D projects takes years to materialize into sales. Furthermore there are companies that are R&D and patent heavy (IBM for example), but in reality their patent portfolio is so broad that they can't seem to be able to enforce their rights. To enforce your right you must have: 1- A rock solid patent. This is rarer than it seems. 2- People that find the infringers. If you are not focused it's likely going to be under your radar. If it's very technical it will very likely go below your radar. 3- A profitable proposition to enforce your patent rights. So how exactly do you spot good R&D spenders? Well the first I'd look at is consistency in market success (singles). If there is a lot of singles that means the product group identifies opportunities for the R&D team to work on. That also means the product teams know when a homerun is feasible. If you can, you should try to identify an all star R&D head. Usually that all star will not be the one solving problems but will have enough leadership to steer the product and marketing group away from technical pitfalls. I' recommend that you read Skunk Works, it's about the engineer that led the development of the first stealth plane. I'd call that a home-run... but it's boss (who was very competent and a legend) told him to drop it. It goes to show that luck and vision plays a role as much as skill. BTW, I take R&D spending at face value when reading annual report, if it's within the industry norm that is fine. Thanks BeerBaron
  18. That is a bit of BS, if could setup a mirror of the drive and try again and again. Painfully long but for 240M I'm sure he could even give it to a firm that would do it for him. That is especially true if the password is somewhat short 12 characters of less. BeerBaron
  19. Hi Greg, I fully understand your feelings. I have no problem if he attacks Prem, me or whoever. But he knows he's been warned countless times about keeping politics/religion/non-investment topics out of other boards/threads. He wanted to piss me off by quoting me...on religion...while the subject was Fairfax in the Fairfax thread. You don't do that. Yeah, once in a while you'll post outside of the Politics thread, but for all intents and purposes you do try to follow the rules, no matter how blunt you get. Cubsfan does too...LC and the liberal contingent do too. But Cardboard not only ignores the rules, he is often the instigator and I've had tons and tons of complaints against him...that I've ignored because he posted here so long. But I can't ignore it forever. If he's purposely going to be a dick, so be it...he's gone! Cheers! Cardboard is probably a good investor but he polluted my RSS feed with political non-sense so much in the last few years that it's image reflected badly on this site. I'll miss it's 5% of investment discussion, but certainly not the 95% rotten leftover. Parsad, you are the Sheriff. It's not a democracy, it's an investment board. Glad you are using your badge. BeerBaron
  20. I'd add that overdose death was trending up big time pre COVID. COVID does not help... but doing A-B is a bit misleading. COVID did not slow the opioids, I'd probably attribute 10-15% increase du to COVID, similar to alcohol usage. I remember a year ago there was a thread talking about opioids epidemics... before COVID. BeerBaron
  21. The anti-Trumpers wont agree, but if you follow the Great Barrington Declaration Herd Immunity is not a strategy, but inevitable. Herd Immunity, Dr. Bhattacharya says is like gravity. The plane is going to come down sometime. The question is how to land safely. This makes the therapeutics and vaccines much more important and only US government with Warp Speed project got them developed very fast. The shortest vaccine development I believe is for mumps with four years. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky (April 1st) White House started working on warp speed project with aggressive timelines, and seems to be beating the 18 month time line which it self experts were skeptical. To quote from article "Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID -- which is part of the National Institutes of Health -- said the typical vaccine takes between eight and 10 years to develop. " I'd say warp speed vaccine is something that makes me unwary if that means steps are being skipped. China and Russia are already bragging that they are ahead of the vaccine race. I suspect part of their lead is skipping steps. But what if skipping a step brings death to 0.1% of the population? That's 1.5M death... I'll trust to get a vaccine if all the steps of the stages have been properly respected. Anything else is just rolling dice. Apparently, the FDA is holding their stand toward pressure. Let's hope it stays that way. Trump has little to do with how fast a vaccine gets released... provided he does not force to skip steps. Tests take time and you can't make a baby in one month by making 9 women pregnant. You can however provide funding and make sure the production capacity is ready when it gets approved. But again, any government can calculate the risk/reward over 4T$ deficit VS 10B$ wasted production capacity. I'm sure even Canada, say's to it's pharmaceutical industries, money is no object. BeerBaron
  22. So with the federal govenrment borrowing like crazy and the housing market exploding... How levered are househould and goverments together? Do we have historical data to compare? BeerBaron
  23. Let me bet, other developed countries will get vaccinated at 90%+ rate and be done with it faster than the US. I can't understand the distrusts of the US citizen toward scientists and institutions. Scientific theory, and infrastructure improvement made it so that within 200 years most of us live better than kings on many metrics. Maybe that is just how the CEO of USA conveys it's message, IMO it feels rushed and improvised and that make the population nervous. They feel something is off, or the message is blurred... because as I recall a few years ago the CEO of USA was a bit of a vaccine skeptical. Funny how someone words has a impact on the populace actions much later one. For some reasons, some people fight innovations that have been proven again and again... and again. If the trials have been done in proper form I'll get me, my parents and my family vaccinated without questions. Why would anybody do otherwise? Don't we want to walk in a store breeding freely and see the smile of our neighbors when they feel great? It's in our best interest... just prove to all of us that the diligence has been done and that it's not some kind of banana republic scheme to win our votes. BeerBaron
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