Political Posts

[Xerxes]

On Kremlin’ Afrika Korps. 
 

In contrast the Deutsches Afrikakorps was ran by gentlemen, waging war nobly.  

 

[Spekulatius]

Fighting with beer against the French in Africa :

https://www.marketwatch.com/video/how-wagner-used-beer-to-spread-russian-influence-in-africa/C9257E93-0074-4BBB-8F37-94EA63CAD82A.html

Edited September 17, 2023 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-17/xi-s-security-obsession-turns-ordinary-citizens-into-spy-hunters?srnd=premium-europe

 

“At the time of economic pressure, there are quite obvious concerns at the top leadership,” said Katja Drinhausen, head of the politics and society program at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Using collective fear as a way to build political and social cohesion is a very dangerous game to play.”

[Luke]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/13/zelensky-ukraine-war-leaked-documents/

 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has won the trust of Western governments by refusing to use the weapons they provide for attacks inside Russia and prioritizing the targeting of Russian forces inside Ukraine’s borders.

 

But behind closed doors, Ukraine’s leader has proposed going in a more audacious direction — occupying Russian villages to gain leverage over Moscow, bombing a pipeline that transfers Russian oil to Hungary, a NATO member, and privately pining for long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia’s borders, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents detailing his internal communications with top aides and military leaders.

 

They reveal a leader with aggressive instincts that sharply contrast with his public-facing image as the calm and stoic statesman weathering Russia’s brutal onslaught.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

Really wondering how big the propaganda level in our country is and how much truth there is to what Russia says. I surely do not believe the West to tell its citizens the truth but cant say to which degree. Most likely also impossible to know, party in our Parliament tried to gain further information regarding the bombing of the pipeline but where put off due to "state secrets". 

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/17/an-interview-with-the-head-of-ukraines-defence-intelligence

[ValueArb]

11 hours ago, Luca said:

Really wondering how big the propaganda level in our country is and how much truth there is to what Russia says. I surely do not believe the West to tell its citizens the truth but cant say to which degree. Most likely also impossible to know, party in our Parliament tried to gain further information regarding the bombing of the pipeline but where put off due to "state secrets". 

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

[Luke]

7 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

Request: 

 

https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-921048

 

The left-wing faction continues to see a great need for clarification regarding the attacks on the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines on September 26, 2022. In a small question (20/4303), the MPs want to know, among other things, how the federal government can respond to legal and, specifically, international law criteria, attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership evaluate and what knowledge the federal government has so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents and the damage caused.

 

We ask the Federal Government: 1. How does the Federal Government assess attacks by, in the opinion of the questioners, state actors on infrastructure in international waters, some of which are owned by German companies through shareholder ownership, from a legal and especially international law perspective? 2. What knowledge does the federal government have so far about the timing and technical sequence of the incidents on the two double strands of the Nord Stream 2 and Nord Stream 1 pipelines? a) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 2 lines? b) When and where did the explosion occur or did the explosions occur on the Nord Stream 1 lines? c) According to the Federal Government's knowledge, how many explosions or detonated explosive devices are there in total? d) What quantity did the explosions achieve, and according to the Federal Government's findings, what amount of military explosives would be necessary to achieve this effect in the corresponding water depth on the gas pipelines? e) How long is the distance between the explosion sites on the two pipelines? f) How much time does a conventional ship and a submersible each need on average to travel this distance? 3. What findings does the federal government have so far about the damage caused to the two double strands? a) How many of the four individual lines were opened by the explosions? b) How long are the pipelines torn?

 

Reply of the government:

 

“With reference to possible conflicts with the interests of allied states or their secret services, the so-called third-party rule, the federal government refuses to provide any further information. She even refuses to provide the usual information under classified classification or to deposit it with the secret protection office of the German Bundestag. If the government assumes that disclosure of its information could lead to a disruption of mutual trust with allies or impair the protection of German interests abroad, then Parliament must be involved all the more urgently. It is a serious attack on the sovereignty of the Federal Republic. The attack also destroyed infrastructure that was strategically important for the country's energy independence. In this serious situation, MPs must be involved.”

 

The Question to me is how much does the secret service know and how much is told to the public? 

 

 

2022-10-11_Nordstream_9-489-Nastic.pdf

[Luke]

"If such information were available, it would be evident must be kept secret because it contains security-relevant information include, which is subject to the confidentiality of treatment foreign intelligence services to the German intelligence services were forwarded. A disclosure of information that is according to the Rules of “third party rule” were obtained would be considered a disruption of the mutual basis of trust and would have one severe impairment of the participation of the federal intelligence services in the international exchange of knowledge. A possible Access by unauthorized persons would have significant disadvantages Impact on the trusting cooperation between the Federal intelligence services with foreign intelligence services have. Dignity as a consequence of a loss of trust Information from foreign bodies is omitted or essential decline, there would be significant information gaps with negative ones Consequences for the accuracy of the depiction of the security situation the Federal Republic of Germany and with regard to protection German interests abroad. A disclosure of the information would also enable further clarification of secret service activities and against the Federal Republic of Germany make it considerably more difficult. The The requested information therefore affects those in need of protection Secrecy interests that protect the welfare of the state parliamentary right to information prevails and the right to ask questions MPs exceptionally opposed to the interest in secrecy must take a back seat to the federal government."

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Can you be more specific about what who refuses to answer? Because for one big problem, its unclear whether anyone bombed the Nordstream pipelines.

 

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/10/nordstream-ii-electric-instapundit.html

 

 

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

[Luke]

Micheal Burry posted this article once on his twitter, interesting read: 

 

"An ascendant China seems eerily similar to the Ottomans. Beijing believes that the United States is decadent, undeserving of its affluence, living beyond its means on the fumes of the past - and very soon vulnerable enough to challenge openly.

Left and Right seem to hate each other more than they do their common enemies.

Like the Byzantines, Americans gave up defending their own borders, and simply shrugged as millions overran them as they pleased.

Our once iconic downtowns, like end-stage Constantinople before the fall, are now dirty, half-deserted, dangerous, and dysfunctional.

America prints rather than makes money, as its banks totter near bankruptcy.

Americans similarly believe they are invincible without ensuring in reality that they are. Our military is more worried about being "woke" than deadly."

 

https://townhall.com/columnists/victordavishanson/2023/03/16/are-we-the-byzantines-n2620664

[John Hjorth]

More detail about what happened to the submarine under the attack on the Sevastopol shipyard. Reads and looks like it's toast & scrap worthy. Please see especially contents of tweet #2 in the thread. It has really taken a beating.

 

 

[UK]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

 

If I had to bet at the gunpoint, I would bet on: https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/20/ukraines-spymaster-has-got-under-the-kremlins-skin

 

"Yet his bravado is not universally welcomed. Leaked documents show that the cia had to intervene to stop General Budanov from ordering an attack on Moscow on the anniversary of the invasion in February. Sabotage and the raids inside Russia since have heightened worries among Ukraine’s allies about provoking a nuclear power."

[mcliu]

I think the US is much better positioned than the Byzantines. There is still food & energy security, friendly neighbours and military dominance. But they really need to get their shit together and focus on fixing the real issues instead of fucking around and relying on the country's natural advantages.

[mcliu]

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

[tnp20]

Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail, Pentagon official says

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-blockade-taiwan-likely-fail-164637572.html

 

 

This is in line with my assessment...my thoughts are a decade or two before they are even ready militarily.

 

By all accounts, Xi is not so smart mafioso who has blundered strategically on multiple fronts. He may blunder again and attack prematurely but it would be the end of Xi or CCP or even the world depending on how is unfolds. But knowing he craves stability and control, its unlikely he goes down this path.

 

Xi has pissed off and scared off foreign investors needlessly and iron in the brain means he is too stubborn to reason and listen to sage advice from his smart advisers specially when it comes to things that conflict with his ideology.

 

Some amazing businesses in China are very cheap, but Xi remains the single most important factor in how the China investment story turns out in the short and medium term. Absent health issues, he is not going anywhere and there is no one powerful enough to challenge him.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 19, 2023 by tnp20

[rogermunibond]

A rather good article from the FT's Martin Wolf on China GDP and growth potential.  

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8a7fb1d5-bb3a-48b7-aa72-1c522fd21063

[Gamecock-YT]

No

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

Hell no!  

[tnp20]

 

 

1 hour ago, rogermunibond said:

A rather good article from the FT's Martin Wolf on China GDP and growth potential.  

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8a7fb1d5-bb3a-48b7-aa72-1c522fd21063

 

Its an excellent article. They have the means to do it, except Xi likes to score own goals.

 

 

The biggest questions of all about the future of the Chinese economy concern politics, both domestic and global. Domestically, does China have a leadership that wants to continue with rapid growth or is it now inclined to view stability as more desirable? Is it prepared to take the steps needed not just to increase demand now, but to tackle the structural problems of over-saving and over-investment, over-reliance on the property market, excessive leverage, and so forth? Is it prepared to give private businesses their head once again or is it determined to keep them under firm (and inevitably daunting) control? Can it convince the Chinese people that, after the traumas of Covid, they can be confident in the future once again? Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute of International Economics has argued powerfully that they cannot. I am not convinced. They changed in the late 1970s on a far bigger scale. Of course, the leadership also changed. Will it this time, too? Or is it fixed for years ahead?

 

 

 

 

[ValueArb]

10 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

Tough one, but important question.

 

I’d say beyond significant material support- should Russia prevail. No, but the west would need to figure out a permanent penalty to make it very painful.

 

Europeans entitled to a different viewpoint, since this never should have happened and threatens them the most. I certainly wouldn’t feel good living in Poland or the Baltic States.

[crs223]

7 hours ago, mcliu said:

really need to get their shit together and focus on fixing the real issues

 

Crime, homeless, endless wars, money printing. Let’s assume the US does nothing to fix any of these.  How does that play out?

 

Historically (20 years) there are no consequences whatsoever.

 

Interest rates go up?  Underwhelming.  Is there a point where businesses or individuals leave?  Or worse? Is there a precedent besides “the roman empire fell, so US will fall too”?

 

I’ve heard that Singapore has essentially no homeless, no crime, and a population that cares about one another.  Is it true?

 

Sorry/not sorry to hijack…

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Tough one, but important question.

 

I’d say beyond significant material support- should Russia prevail. No, but the west would need to figure out a permanent penalty to make it very painful.

 

Europeans entitled to a different viewpoint, since this never should have happened and threatens them the most. I certainly wouldn’t feel good living in Poland or the Baltic States.

Why?  Baltics are part of Nato and so is Poland, that's a big difference!

[no_free_lunch]

11 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

It's not so black and white.  There are options for escalation between current support and some type of direct NATO-RU conflict.  That is what we are witnessing in fact.  Increased supply and more sophisticated weapons can be delivered to Ukraine.  Some type of private military, a parallel to Wagner could be employed, it already is to a very limited extent by virtue of volunteers.  Drones play a significant role and can be upscaled by western donors.